Month: October 2008

The NFL is a cruel league. You hang an L on your record in a game you should win, and it haunts you all season long. It stares at you as reminder of what could have been, what should have been. In the NFL you have to win the games you should win, and you need to win some of the games you shouldn’t win. The Bills lost an important opportunity against the Dolphins.

1. The offense clearly lost this game.

The NFL in 2008 is an offensive league. If all your offense can put on the board is 16 points (the Bills averaged 15.8 a game in 2007), you aren’t going to win enough games to compete for a championship. Three field goals and a touchdown against the Dolphins just does not do it. 17 points against the Cardinals didn’t do it.

The refrain from 2007 is now starting to sound equally true in 2008: The Bills would win if the offense would produce.

Why don’t the Bills score more? Hard to say exactly – some thoughts are below.

2. The Bills passing game clearly lost this game for the offense.

The NFL in 2008 is a passing league. One touchdown pass a game – all the Bills are getting in 2008, and more than they got in 2007 – doesn’t do it. 6.4 yards per pass attempt doesn’t do it. With only a few exceptions, in the NFL, if you aren’t throwing it effectively, you aren’t winning.

The Bills passing game gave up a safety, an interception and a fumble. That alone was enough to lose the game. But the Bills aren’t getting enough big gains out of the passing game. The Bills aren’t getting receivers into the end zone. The Bills were playing against one of the most porous pass defenses in the league, and they made those defensive backs look like Pro Bowlers.

We’re back to the 2007 questions – is it that we don’t have receivers who can get separation, or is it the patterns? I don’t know. All I know is that the Bills have to pass better than that.

3. Quarterback is the most important position on the team. Trent Edwards didn’t get it done. For the first time in 2008, he looked like a second-year quarterback. We’ve been saying for 10 months that we have to expect some games like this from Trent because, after all, he IS a second-year quarterback. But he’s been playing so well, I began to think he was mature beyond his years. No such luck. You can’t fool Mother Nature – there is no substitute for experience.

He probably lost the game on one play – the quarterback sneak. What was he doing? He has to know what happens when a ball carrier sticks the ball out there like that. At the goal line, maybe, because the play ends once the ball breaks the plane. In the middle of the field, never. Not in the middle of the defense like that. Total bonehead play.

The safety was nearly as bad. His job in the end zone is to avoid the safety. Get back, make a decision, unload it. That was two points and field position that resulted in a field goal. After that, it was a two possession game. Bonehead play.

The interception was unfortunate. He stood in, made the throw, and misjudged by just a split second when he would get hit.

Is Trent beginning to suffer from the same love affair with Lee Evans that troubled JP? Lee had seven catches and five more that he threw to Lee. Again, I’ll ask, is Lee the only receiver who can get close to open? Or is Trent locked on Lee? I don’t know. (I watched in a sports bar with a lot of noise and no audio, so I didn’t hear and didn’t notice that Reed left the game. I’m sure that made a difference.)

Trent’s vaunted accuracy failed him, too. He missed on several balls that he should have thrown better.

This was not the Trent Edwards we’ve seen earlier this season. If what see saw against the Dolphins is what we’ll see the rest of the season, the Bills will struggle. A passer rating of 77 doesn’t get teams to the playoffs.

4. When the Bills were winning games earlier this season, they did it in part by minimizing the mistakes. Not against the Dolphins. Neill’s snap over Moorman’s head. Royals’ fumble. Dockery’s hold (although it may have saved a sack). Preston’s unnecessary roughness.

5. As much as I like Fred Jackson, I do not understand why Marshawn Lynch is not in the game in the red zone. The man is a scoring machine. I don’t know how he does it, but he does it. I’m sure the coaches have some reason, and I’d love to hear it. All I know is that I’ve never seen a ball carrier who can pick up the scent of the end zone better than Marshawn Lynch. Put him in the game and give him the ball. Put him in the game and run play action. Put him in the game.

The running game was pretty good. Unfortunately, this is a passing league. (The Bills topped the run; the Dolphins stopped the pass. Dolphins won.)

6. During the week I heard some commentator say that the Colts defense was built to play with a lead. The Bills run the same defense. It’s a good defense. They played well enough against the Dolphins, especially in the points column. But this defense is NOT going to win games for the Bills week after week. It couldn’t win the game against the Dolphins.

The defense gave up two drives for touchdowns, and the Bills offense gave up a safety and three short fields for field goals. If the offense had held on to the ball, and if the offense could have scored one more touchdown, the Bills win.

7. The Bills’ efficient tackling abandoned them at times against the Dolphins. Greer, particularly, was missing the open field tackles he made last week against the Chargers.

Over all, however, the Bills did a good job taking ball carriers down. As good as Brown and Williams are, the Bills stopped them. Of course, it may have been that the Bills were so concerned about stopping those two that the Bills couldn’t stop the pass. That was certainly the case on the first touchdown, where Whitner and all his teammates bit on the play fake.

The Bills stopped the run. Unfortunately, this is a passing league. While the Bills were stopping the run, they fell asleep on the pass. Which leads me to another question …

8. How in the world could this defense make Ted Ginn, Jr. look like a Pro Bowl player? Really. McGee gets torched on the first play of the game, torched so badly that when Pennington – in classic Pennington fashion – underthrew the ball, McGee STILL couldn’t get there in time to break it up. 7 for 175, when the best he’d been able to so far this season was 7 for 55? 2 for 17 against the Jets? He puts up 175? Are you kidding me?

It looked like pure speed. I don’t think the Bills have a defender who can run with him. Maybe it was a break-out game for the guy. Maybe the Bills just thought they could handle him man-to-man; maybe every other team managed to cover him man-to-man. Maybe the Dolphins were running some new schemes. Whatever it was, the Bills coaches miscalculated somehow.

Ginn was the difference for the Dolphins offensively. Hold him to 100 and the Bills win, even with their offense sputtering.

9. Lee Evans was just short of brilliant. He didn’t get much separation on a few routes, Trent threw it anyway, and Lee couldn’t make the catch. But he’s clearly a challenge to cover man-to-man. He gets open, he catches the ball, he fights for yards. Impressive.

Hardy’s doing a little more each week. Reed made a spectacular run after catch for a first down – the Bills will miss if he’s gone for a while. Roscoe didn’t do much. I’m the one who will argue forever that tight ends aren’t that important, but even I have to admit that Royals has been a liability. All you need your tight end to do is get open once in a while, catch the ball when it arrives, and hold on to it. Royal’s second fumble in three games, plus a drop, suggests the Bills need another solution.

10. This was a killer game Sunday. Lose a division game on the same day the other two teams in the division win. The Bills are tied with the Patriots, a team that was in full view in the Bills’ rear-view mirror only a couple of weeks ago. The Bills have the worst in-division record. If they want to control their playoff destiny, they need to start with a win against the Jets next week.

Maybe the Colts will do the Bills a favor and take down the Pats next week. But if you want to win anything in this league, you have to win it yourself – you have to keep the ugly Ls off your record..

Memo to coaches: It’s a passing league.

If you’re looking for more on the Bills and Dolphins, check out the podcast at www.BuffaloBillsReview.com.

See you next week.

Impressive. Very impressive.

1. With two key defenders (McGee and Schobel) not able to go, the Bills shut down one of the best offenses in the league. Granted, it was a home game, and the Chargers had their share of injuries, too. Still, this was Phil Rivers, first in passer rating, 9th in yards per game. Antonio Gates. Ladainian Tomlinson. Darren Sproles. They gained 400 yards and scored 30 points against the Pats. They got 260 yards and 14 points against the Bills. It was impressive.

You could see Rivers’ indecision. He’d drop back, look, start to throw, stop. Look someplace else, eventually pull the trigger. Some plays, of course, worked for them as designed, but the Bills pass defense clearly made him uncomfortable. Then, in the fourth quarter, when it was time to win the game, the Bills dialed up some blitzes, increased the pressure on Rivers, and he gave the game to the Bills. It was impressive.

The tackling wasn’t just impressive; it was spectacular. The ball would be in the air to Tomlinson in the flat, with no one near him, and I’d think “we’re in trouble.” Then Jabari would leave the shallow zone and begin to close, and Tomlinson would catch the ball, turn and make a move or two. Then he’d go down. Poz tackled like that. McKelvin did. Whitner did. Tomlinson’s a Hall of Fame ball carrier, nicked up a bit, but still a star, and he went NOWHERE.

2. Please don’t tell me anyone out there still doubts Trent Edwards. Old School, a long-time poster on the message board at www.BuffaloBills.com, told me last week not to let the Arizona game bother me too much, because we didn’t have Edwards. Nice call, School – the single biggest reason there’s a 5 in the Bills’ record is that Edwards was on the field, and the single biggest reason there’s a 1 in the Bills record is that Edwards wasn’t on the field.

What was obvious against the Chargers was that Edwards knows what to do on every play. A couple of times at the snap Trent recognized that there would be an unblocked blitzer coming at him – he simply took a quick drop and unloaded the ball to his hot read. A couple of times he stood in the pocket until his protection – his unbelievably stout protection – finally was breaking down, and he calmly dumped the ball to the outlet he knew would be there. He found Jackson in the right flat for a nice gain on one of those.

I’ve never played quarterback, so I don’t know what it’s like to stand back there and try to think of all the things the QB is supposed to see and understand. I don’t know what it takes, but I do know Edwards has it. On the Jackson play, he checked down really quickly, because he saw something that told him Fred had running room and needed the ball NOW. He clearly knows where Lee Evans is going to be and where to put the ball for him. His only bad throw of the day was the deep out to Reed that was knocked down. He needed to unload that ball a little earlier, or he needed more on it – nearly was intercepted.

Outstanding performance by the young man.

3. Receiving. Remember when people used to say Lee Evans is a one-trick pony – all he can do is go deep? Well, if that’s true, someone else was wearing number 83 yesterday. That was one of Lee’s best days as a pro. He was getting open underneath all kinds of ways, and he caught everything that was catchable. We’re starting to see some run after the catch ability, too. BIG third down catch after the punt was downed at the goal line. And the touchdown catch was, well, it was the reason the Bills made Lee a wealthy man a few weeks ago.

Remember when people said the Bills needed a tight end? Robert Royal, 4 receptions for 53 yards. Antonio Gates, 4 for 55. Hmmm. Most tight ends make their receiving money by knowing where to be in a productive offense, and catching the ball when it arrives. That’s what we saw from Royal yesterday.

Nice to see Roscoe get that deep ball up the sideline. Send him deep and cut off the route; he can get open like that all day.

4. Yes, the Bills coaches are conservative, but they aren’t dumb. The no-big-plays defense rewarded the Bills again against the Chargers, but there was more to win than that. Listen to Kawika Mitchell explain after the game that his interception came on a play where the Bills had redesigned their defense. The Bills knew the Chargers liked to get Gates in single coverage on that play, and the Chargers knew that in the defense the Bills showed, they’d get single coverage. Unfortunately for Mr. Rivers, the Bills changed the assignments in that defense during the week to get Kawika underneath. Yes, it was a bad decision by Rivers, but the reason he made the decision was that on the film that he studied all week, Kawika was never there.

The Bills coaches also figured out how to stop the run.

They also figured out how to get the running backs wide against a defense that is tough up the middle.

The Bills were well prepared on Sunday.

5. The Bills running backs have heart. They keep pounding, no matter how many guys are trying to make the tackle. Best runs of the day were Marshawn’s touchdown – how many blockers did the Bills get outside the tackle? – and Freddy’s third down conversion at the two minute warning. No way he should have gotten past the sticks, but the line kept working and he squeezed himself through not much of a hole.

They caught 7 passes.

Marshawn also did a job on pass protection.

Their numbers weren’t great, but those guys contributed.

6. Rookie watch. McKelvin has a long way to go. He’s a serious tackler; I like that about him. But it’s clear that in man coverage, he plays too far off – he seems to think that when the ball’s in the air he’ll close on the receiver and make the play. Maybe in college, Leodis, but not here. In the NFL, if you’re 5 yards from the receiver when the ball is thrown, you’re going to be 5 yards from him when he catches it. Over the course of the game, Leodis tightened up the coverage – the second TD he gave up, he nearly made the play. The Bills are fortunate to have gotten him a full game of experience against a quality team without having gotten too badly burned. I think he’ll be fine, but he needs time.

Hardy didn’t seem to be in on any important plays. He was the fourth choice on every pattern, so far as I could tell. Like Leodis, it’s good for James to get on the field and start to figure things in games where the Bills don’t need him to win the game. The passing game looks so good, that I expect the Bills will find more opportunities for him to make plays as the season progresses.

Ellis. I didn’t notice him on the field. I saw a lot of Copeland Bryan running on and off, not much Ellis. Maybe I missed him.

Corner was out there from time to time.

7. Everyone keeps waiting for Donte’s break-out game. I don’t think it’s coming. I don’t think he’s the guy who’s going to be on Sports Center every week. What he is is an absolutely solid football player. Size, speed, technique, brains, heart. He was playing the nickel back in many packages yesterday. George Wilson and Bryan Scott were out there a lot with him.

I never saw Simpson on the field with the defense; he clearly could play, because for most of the game he was on the kickoff coverage team. Never saw Youboty, either.

8. Injuries. I was really sad to see DiGi go down. Initial reports don’t sound good, but if there’s a way for him to stay on the field. He will. Love the guy.

I didn’t notice that Butler had left the game the second time. Have to give Whittle credit for being ready, all the time, to play if needed.

Have to give Duke Preston credit, too. I don’t know how he did on run blocking, but he must have been doing something in the pass blocking schemes – no one came up the middle on Trent. He clearly wanted the opportunity to get on the field in his natural position. I wonder if this could become a permanent change.

What is it with Peters? Every few games he goes down and we all get nervous, and three plays later he’s back in the game. It certainly isn’t fair for me to call a man who can succeed in a man’s game a wimp, but it does seem to me that he doesn’t always bring to the game the heart that many great players have. Still, I’ll chalk that up to me wanting all my guys to be superstars; if Jason needs to take a play off now and then, I can live with that. It’s Jason being Jason.

9. Takeaway/giveaway wins games. It won for Arizona in game 5, and it won for the Bills in game 6. Nine takeaways for the Bills so far this year. You want more? Join the Ball Burglar at www.Ballburglar.com, and pledge to pay a dollar or two for every takeaway. Lots of Bills fans already are doing it; we’re over $300 per takeaway so far this year. Those nine takeaways are worth over $5000 for kids with serious childhood illnesses.

10. In case you haven’t heard, there was a power failure at Ralph Wilson Stadium yesterday, so fans in the stadium were treated to old-fashioned football – no advertising, no music blaring from the loudspeakers, no out-of-town scores, no down and distance, no clock. Also no TV timeouts – guy returns a punt, offense and defense run onto the field, and they start the next play. That was refreshing. No replays and no challenges (so far as I could tell, there were no challengeable calls while the power was out).

It didn’t seem to matter to the players (except that they had to go back to hand signals for offensive and defensive calls). Didn’t matter to the fans. The sun was shining and the Bills were winning. Who needed electricity?

Great game.

Miami’s next. Good teams on the road beat teams like Miami. Next week is another opportunity for the Bills to prove they’re a good team. In this league you have to prove it every week – just ask the Cowboys.