Category: Greg’s Weekly Picks

LAST WEEK: 10-4 :: OVERALL: 62-40

Well, last week I ended up picking three (not four) crazy upsets: Miami, St. Louis, and Oakland. I’m happy to report that I got two out of those three right, and the one I missed was good for the Bills so… it all worked out! St. Louis won even more easily than I imagined, and Oakland went to OT, but did defeat the highly overrated Jets.

Thanks to those picks and a few others, I went a respectable 10-4 (finally!) in week seven. Was counting on the Broncos to actually arrive in Foxboro for the game to push me over the 10-win mark, but … no such luck.

Week eight holds some interesting contests. Let’s have a look!

Our beloved Bills face their first divisional opponent this weekend, and on the road no less. The Dolphins are definitely improved over last year with Chad Pennington adding some consistency to the QB position, and their crazy Wildcat offense. But last week the Ravens seemed to have figured that out, and even though they had some great wins over San Diego and New England, I just don’t see them beating the Bills. They should make a game of it, but I think tin the end… WINNER: Buffalo.

St. Louis is on a roll! They have defeated playoff teams from a year ago (and potentially this season as well) in the past two weeks and now head to New England for a third straight monumental challenge. The Patriots took advantage of some of the poorest football execution I have seen in a long time put forth by the Denver Broncos on Monday night to roll up their biggest victory of the year. They looked like the 16-0 team from 2007 in that game. Despite their resurgence and 2-0 record under new coach, Jim Haslett, and in spite of the Patriots apparent resurgence last week, I think the Rams just can’t do it three weeks in a row. Almost by default… WINNER: New England

The second annual game in jolly old England features two teams that should have better records. For whatever reason, they do not, and New Orleans will NOT be featuring one of their main star players, Reggie Bush. New Orleans looked pretty bad last week against the Panthers, and the Chargers – even in a loss – looked pretty good against the Bills. Should actually be a really good game, and could go either way, but at the moment, the edge (and the game) go to… WINNER: San Diego

Oh man. Do we have to watch this one?? LJ is still getting himself in trouble, so who knows if he will play (or if he will play well). The Jets proved they are mostly a bad team still with an OT loss to the Raiders last weekend (predicted here, of course). But even though they are the NY Jest… they are better than the Chiefs this year. I would be shocked if the Jets DON’T win this game. WINNER: NY Jets

This is an intriguing game. Atlanta is playing well. They are both coming off their bye week. Philly RB (and key offensive cog) Brian Westbrook will be coming back from an injury. It’s in Philadelphia… too much going against Atlanta, though should be a hard fought game. WINNER: Philadelphia

Ha. Washington has lost to the Rams, and nearly gave up the game to the Browns in the past two weeks. They will want to make a statement. WINNER: Washington

This one is actually really hard to pick. Last week I (correctly) predicted that the ‘Boys were in pretty bad shape, and due for a loss against a revitalized Rams team. This week, I also think they should lose to the currently much better Bucs. However, it’s hard to pick against a team “on the ropes” that is playing at home. The Cowboys certainly have talent, and could definitely just overpower the Bucs. But what I like about Tampa Bay this year is their balanced-ness. They have a solid offense, good running game, and a very solid (great) defense. As crazy as it sounds… I think Dallas loses this one at home, too. And they are in serious trouble. WINNER: Tampa Bay

This one should be a shoot out! And, whenever you think that going into a game, it usually isn’t. It will probably end up a big defensive battle! (Just look at last week’s huge defensive battle between Chicago and Minnesota! 48-41???) Arizona is coming off their bye week, but they are playing on the east coast against a team that just crushed their division foe, the Saints. Even as well as Arizona is playing, the situation will likely be too much to overcome. WINNER: Carolina

Not really as bad a game as it might seem. Oakland is far better than the joke that they used to be – and the joke that their franchise (front office, owner, coaches) still is. They should actually be a challenge for Baltimore, but perhaps the Ravens found their offense last week against Miami? Baltimore already has the better defense… WINNER: Baltimore

This one may seem obvious, but do you think the Bengals could actually go 0-16? To my knowledge, that has never been done. And I think it’s nearly impossible at the NFL level. They will beat someone. Palmer is still not going to play. The Texans are good, and better at home… not this week Cincy. WINNER: Houston

Just when we thought the Browns of 2007 were back… they looked pretty pathetic against the Redskins (although, in the end they almost pulled out the victory!) Which team will we see in Jacksonville? For that matter… which Jags team will we see? Are they a dominant, defensive, run-oriented team? Or can they not run the ball at all… and give up too many yards and points to the potentially-potent Browns offense? Definitely hard to call, but mostly due to home field advantage, my pick is… WINNER: Jacksonville

Mike Singletary’s first game as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers should be a success. Seattle is just way too injury-depleted and seem to have packed it in for the season. WINNER: San Francisco

This is a great matchup. Two great defenses. To pretty great offenses. Smash mouth football. Big passing game football. Should have a little of everything. Are the Giants able to go into Pittsburgh (perhaps the best team in the AFC right now) and deal the Steelers a loss, defending their World Champion title? Or are they the team we saw on the road at Cleveland? Last year they were they kings of the road… but… not this time. WINNER: Pittsburgh

I still contend that Tennessee is the beneficiary of their schedule. Some say that about the Bills, so I could be wrong. And, although this should be a good test, I am not sure it will be. The Colts have been really pretty bad. I know it’s injuries, but… that can only account for so much. The Bills were 7-9 last season with an insane amount of injuries. Indy very well could be 1-5, if not for two great comebacks engineered by the great Peyton Manning. Can Peyton be great enough to beat their division foe the Titans on their home turf? They need to to stay in the playoff hunt. That makes me think they will… WINNER: Indianapolis

Week eight could see the fall of the last undefeated team, will see the first AFC East game for the Buffalo Bills, and should see a colossally good football game Sunday night between the Giants and Steelers. I’m sure a few more surprises and great games will be thrown in there as well!

Go Bills! Squish the Fish!

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LAST WEEK: 7-6 :: OVERALL: 35-25

Last week was probably not the best week to start tracking this here. 7-6 is not a great week of prognostication, to be sure. But I knew that’s how it would be! For some reason, when the picks are “obvious”, it never turns out that way.

That should bode well for this week.

Several interesting match-ups that could go any way this week. Let’s get right to ’em.

This game is not difficult to pick. Chicago has been playing really well. Could actually be 4-0, if not for two fourth quarter collapses this season. They hung in against Philadelphia and went to 2-2, instead of 1-3. And, even though the Lions fired Matt Millen, there will be no improvement with them… at all. I don’t plan on picking Detroit at all this season, actually. WINNER: Chicago.

Miami is playing their first game after Ronnie Brown’s big 5 TD day against New England, which I’d imagine will give them some confidence. They are also the home team. I think that might be all they have going for them. On paper, this is an easy pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s close. But, SD wins. WINNER: San Diego

Another NFC East battle. So far they are definitely the toughest division. Washington went into Dallas and beat the apparent #1 team in the division. Now NY thinks they are the #1 team in the NFC East, but one of these teams might think otherwise. Washington is very balanced, and Philly looks a little vulnerable after failing to finish the comeback in Chicago. Philly is the home team, and so they are a smart choice, but I just have a feeling Washington is a bit better overall. WINNER: Washington

The Seahawks and Giants are both coming off their bye, but Seattle is traveling across the country to play in New Jersey. The Giants are still undefeated, and after barely squeaking by Cincinnati, are probably looking to prove that they deserve to be one of the three undefeated teams in the NFL. Seattle played well in their last game, but it was against St. Louis who has not been much of a challenge on the scoreboard for any team they have played so far. Seattle may challenge NY, but the Giants will prevail. WINNER: NY Giants

When you look at this game, 1-2 vs 0-3 doesn’t seem like a very good game at all. Indy has lost a step perhaps. Houston hasn’t managed a victory. But that will not be the case. Indy is still a good team, and they will be a tough opponent for the Texans, even playing in Houston. But Houston has lost to good teams (Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Jacksonville) and last week took the Jags to overtime. Due to being displaced by a hurricane, this will be Houston’s first home game of the season. I just have a feeling this will be Houston’s week. WINNER: Houston

Even though these teams have the same record, it’s safe to say they are perceived differently. Atlanta is still quite unknown, winning both of their games at home, but losing the road games by equal 24-9 scores. Green Bay’s young QB Aaron Rodgers was injured in last week’s game and may not play this week, and that spells trouble for GB. Look for Michael Turner, Matt Ryan and crew to put together a solid effort and get their first road win of the season. WINNER: Atlanta

These teams have opposite records for a reason. Despite KC’s surprising performance against Denver, and LJ’s near 200-yard day, Carolina’s defense is much stiffer, and their offense may be equal to Denver’s… look for a fairly easy win for the Panthers at home. WINNER: Carolina

Tennessee and Buffalo are both 4-0 vs competition that is 3-12 and 4-11 respectively so far. That has led some to question Buffalo’s legitimacy as an undefeated team, but for some reason Tennessee’s 4 for 4 performance has received less scrutiny. At home the Titans are definitely tough, and they should be a solid favorite to win against the Ravens, playing on a short week after an OT loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. But the Ravens #1 defense is for real, and the Titans will rely on their top-rated defense to keep them in the game. Even on the road, give the slight edge to Tennessee’s offense over Baltimore’s anemic offense. WINNER: Tennessee

This game should be really interesting. It’s really hard to win in Denver. Really hard. And Denver is off to a great start on offense. But Tampa Bay is off to a great start of their own. They have some quality wins over two former NFC Central foes, Chicago and Green Bay. Their only loss was by four points, on the road, to New Orleans. They have weapons on offense and a good defense… a win in Denver would be a good sign that they are for real. And I think they get it. WINNER: Tampa Bay

Can you believe that we are even giving San Fran a chance in this game? At 2-2, they have improved. Frank Gore is still a good running back. They have some players on defense. J.T. O’Sullivan is… a quarterback. And yet, for some reason (maybe a 38-13 drubbing at the hands of last year’s 1-15 team???) there is room for doubt in this game. The Patriots are making the cross-country journey. That’s never easy. But Belichik’s teams almost always win after the bye. Especially when they are mad. WINNER: New England

Now, this is not going to make a lot of sense. I know, Cincinnati is 0-4. I know, they could only score 12 points against the Browns, at home. But Carson Palmer says he’ll play. Dallas proved they are more than human. They will be mad, but so is Cincinnati. The Bengals don’t like to lose either, and I feel that if Palmer is healthy, he and the Cincinnati receivers will do some damage against Dallas’ defense. Still, the mismatch is too great. WINNER: Dallas (just closer than you might think.)

The Bills look to extend their perfect record in the desert of Arizona. The Cards are coming off an embarrassing performance against the NY Bretts, and as is often said, they are a different team at home. They have multiple weapons on offense, but there is a good chance one (Anquan Boldin) will not play Sunday. There’s also a good chance that Buffalo’s Terrence McGee will not play either. Everything seems to say the Bills will continue their winning ways, but AZ is definitely a better team at home. They will hang with the Bills the whole time, but Buffalo plays their best, most consistent game of the season heading into their by week, and they head home 5-0. WINNER: Buffalo

Both of these teams have had more than their share of injuries this season so far. Despite that, they have decent records, and my hunch is that (playing at home) the Jags will make sure they finish the day with equally good records. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will dominate, Garrard will do enough, and the Jags defense will also do enough. WINNER: Jacksonville

Minnesota has a great run defense and a superior RB. New Orleans has a superior passing offense, and good running backs, and a capable defense – and they play well at home. Minnesota is a bit better than 1-3, but should end up on the short side, mostly due to the mismatch of New Orleans’ offense versus any other team’s defense. WINNER: New Orleans

A few games that could be surprising. Watch the underdogs: Seattle, Cincinnati, Miami. And I picked five underdogs to win outright: Houston, Washington, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Should be an interesting week of NFL football!

Go Bills!

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