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Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 10 Picks

LAST WEEK: 7-7 :: OVERALL: 76-54

This is a bit late getting out this week, but it has been one of the busiest weeks in recent memory. In fact, we’re so late that one of these games has already passed… and I’m already 0-1!!! (I’m not sure it’s a wise move to place any wagers based on my predicted NFL outcomes….) 🙂

Here’s a quick peak at Week 10 of the NFL season!

Buffalo (5-3) at New England (5-3)

Two of the three first-place AFC East teams square off in a stadium in which the Bills have never been victorious (0-6 at Gillette stadium) and the Pats have won 9 in a row against the Bills, and 14 of the last 15. It has definitely been a one-sided match for quite a while. The Bills have been close in many of those games, but have never managed to win. But as predicted pre-season, the Bills are poised to break that streak. They know that if they want to be a playoff team, they have to beat the Pats. Injuries will make that harder, but the Pats are banged up themselves. Look for a strong running game (first of the season) and a win in the turnover column… translating to a big Bills victory! WINNER: Buffalo.

Denver (4-4) at Cleveland (3-4)

It’s obviously too late to be “predicting” this one, but you’ll notice that my prediction was, in fact, wrong. This was a difficult game to predict as the Browns were starting a “rookie” QB in Brady Quinn, but on the other hand, the Broncos have been playing pretty poorly – particularly on defense. So, I went with the home team, who actually led most of the game, but in the end, Denver won 34-30. Nice come back. Too bad for me. 0-1 to start the week. WINNER: Cleveland

Baltimore (5-3) at Houston (3-5)

Really great defense vs. a pretty good offense, and probably a better overall team, who play well at home… but I gotta go with the amazingly strong defense. Home or away, doesn’t matter. WINNER: Baltimore

St. Louis (2-6) at NY Jets (5-3)

I really want to pick the Rams. We (Bills fans) need the Rams to win, that’d be great. But the Jets are just a better team, and should pull out the victory at home, barring some sort of implosion. WINNER: NY Jets

Green Bay (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4)

Green Bay should have beaten Tennessee last week, and though this division contest should be tough… expect Green Bay to get the win. WINNER: Green Bay

Seattle (2-6) at Miami (4-4)

Seattle is bad. Unfortunately for Bills fans… Miami – playing at home – goes a game above .500 this week! WINNER: Miami

Jacksonville (3-5) at Detroit (0-8)

Jacksonville just can’t lose a third straight game that they are supposed to win. WINNER: Jacksonville

Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3)

This game is actually kind of tough to pick. Give the edge to Tennessee because Chicago is starting Rex Grossman. WINNER: Tennessee

New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3)

Another division game. Very tough to call, but let’s go with red-hot Atlanta at home. WINNER: Atlanta

Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6)

One of these teams is much better than the other… WINNER: Carolina

Kansas City (1-7) at San Diego (3-5)

Same as above… San Diego has just not been playing up to par. Still… WINNER: San Diego

Indianapolis (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2)

As much as I’ll be rooting for Indy in this game… Pittsburgh is just too tough for this weakened Colts team. WINNER: Pittsburgh

NY Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia (5-3)

It actually surprises me how many people are picking the Eagles in this game. Westbrook is great, but the Giants team is better. WINNER: NY Giants

San Francisco (2-6) at Arizona (5-3)

This is the Monday night game?? Singletary doesn’t get his first win yet. Arizona wins. WINNER: Arizona

CONCLUSION

Lots of big divisional games this week. The season is more than half over, and stuff is starting to get interesting!

Go Bills! Beat the Pats!

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BBR Guys Contests Fun

Another Chicken Wing Wager

Buffalo chicken wingsHello everyone. As mentioned on our show, John and I discussed wager possibilities and we settled on the following:

  • If the Bills lose by THREE TOUCHDOWNS (21 pts) or more to the Pats on Sunday 11/9, then Greg buys John wings.
  • If the Bills DO NOT lose by 21 pts or more, John buys Greg wings.

(21 pts?? Really???)

John’s prediction was that the Pats would actually win by 27 (37-10) so, 21 will be easy. (Ha!)

My point (Greg) is that we have no business suiting up for any of our remaining games in 2008 if we lose a game that we absolutely MUST win, against a team with at least as many injuries as we have, and who the Bills are at least as good as…. if we lose that game by TWENTY ONE POINTS???? That would be a disgrace.

So, I’d bet on me collecting some chicken wings on another silly, pessimistic prediction involving our Buffalo Bills. 🙂

Go Bills! Score me some wings! 🙂

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Uncategorized

Bills 17-Jets 26 – 10 Things I Like

Okay, listen up: This week I’m writing 10 Things I LIKE about the Bills (with some things I don’t like in parentheses).

Why am I writing 10 Things I LIKE? Because I can’t keep writing the same thing over and over. Last week, my first four things were (1) the offense clearly lost this game, (2) the passing game clearly lost this game, (3) quarterback is the most important position on the team, and Trent Edwards clearly didn’t get it done, (4) minimize mistakes. If you want to read about why the Bills lost to the Jets, read last week’s 10 Things. (And don’t tell me the defense lost the game. Yes, there were no sacks, yes there weren’t enough takeaways, yes, the defense didn’t stop the Pats after Jabari’s INT. I don’t care. The offense gave away 10 points. GAVE AWAY. The defense gave up less than 300 yards, gave up 16 points and scored 7. All the offense had to do is hold on to the ball and kick two field goals instead of throwing an INT for a touchdown and failing on 4th and 1. This defense is 10th in the league in yards per game and 13th in the league in points per game. 16 points allowed is enough to win a game in the NFL. The Bills can win with this defense.)

Here you go – 10 things I LIKE:

1. I like Trent Edwards. I like him. I like his brains, his size his mobility, his delivery. I like his potential.

After several games playing on another planet, Trent Edwards now has returned to his second season in the NFL. This was his second straight game with his inexperience showing. He needed two time outs in the first half when he was confused by the defense. He needed another in the second half, and he took a delay of game penalty. Some of the sacks were his fault, waiting too long to make a decision. The worst was late in the game, when he took a sack instead of leading Lee to the open part of the end zone. He knew he had to get rid of it, Lee had a half step on his man running across the end zone – hang it out there, Trent, and get the score or an incompletion.

The interception, of course, was a disaster. Great drive followed by an awful decision. He was looking right at the defense. Never should have thrown that ball. Never should have thrown the ugly one to Roscoe when he was double or triple or quadruple teamed. What was he doing? A month ago Trent wasn’t throwing those balls.

The fumble looked like it was McIntyre’s blown assignment on the blitz.

The final INT was badly under thrown. Hardy beat his man. The only way NOT to get the TD on that play was to under throw it, and that’s what Trent did. Yes Hardy could have broken it up – he made a good play on it, but not good enough. But the mistake was Trent’s, not Hardy’s.

91.3 passer rating on the day. Trent’s doing a lot right. He looks good. But he has a lot to learn, like any other second year QB. If Trent makes the plays a good quarterback should, the Bills beat the Jets. If the Bills and Jets had traded quarterbacks last Monday, the Bills would have won the game.

I said at the beginning of the season that 2009 is when the Bills should be good. Trent will be a real NFL quarterback next year. Right now, he’s still learning. I like Trent.

2. I like Jabari Greer. Best comment of this or any other game was Phil Simms inviting us to watch Greer’s footwork on the interception. “Looks like they’re doing dance steps.” And when you watched, it was exactly that. What a play.

You’re going to get beat at corner back on some plays. But he doesn’t get beat much. What a player.

3. I like Marshawn Lynch. Give him the ball when you need a yard. He always gets it for you. He did it again yesterday. Too bad he wasn’t able to go when the Bills were fourth and 1 in the red zone. He would have gotten it, somehow. And that’s no knock on Fred Jackson, who had another nice game (except for a his drop on the screen pass).

Marshawn running the length of the field on the interception: who else thought of Don Beebe?

The man has the heart of a champion. His offensive linemen are letting him down. (Time’s up; the offensive line rebuild has to be declared a failure. Yes, Butler is out, but I don’t care – if your offensive line is anchored by three guys who are making, or are about to make, millions of dollars to play the position, that should be enough to open an occasional hole for the running backs. Peters, Dockery and Walker should be enough for this line to be decent. They could not convert a crucial fourth and one – how many times have we seen Peters and Dockery fail to get any kind of push in critical short-yardage situations? They could not give the running backs any room to run. They could not protect Trent. The Jets do have one of the best pass rushes in the league, but they aren’t averaging FIVE a game. Jenkins is a monster, but he shouldn’t consistently beat double teams.)

4. I like Paul Posluszny. He’s around the ball. He’s a solid tackler. He’s still in his rookie year as a middle linebacker in the NFL.

He has the same heart beating in him that Marshawn has. Was it Poz and Marshawn who found each other at the combine and were raggin on each other a bit? Wasn’t that the story after the draft? Those guys and Trent are the future of this team.

5. I like Bryan Scott. I liked what I saw every time he got on the field last season, and I still like it. I like how he tackles. If we’ve lost Donte with is injury, Scott will make plays for the Bills. The problem won’t be Scott. It’ll be who’s at the nickel spot.

6. I’ve always liked the idea of Derek Fine, and I liked what I saw on the field. When the Bills drafted Fine, JayHawk, a long-time poster on the message boards at BuffaloBills.com, said he was a guy to watch. All he does is make plays. You could see it in how Fine got open and how Fine caught the ball.

I didn’t notice whether he was playing special teams against the Jets – he was a star special teamer at Kansas. But it was easy to notice him on offense.

I’m guessing he’ll be a better blocker than Schouman – who had a real nice block, by the way, when Marshawn bulled his way for a first down – and he’ll be a better receiver than Royal – who despite the brutal verbal beatings Bills fans have been administering lately was very effective in the passing game against the Jets. Derek Fine is a worker. He gets all the mechanics right. He’s a guy who will take advantage of opportunities on the field.

7. I like the Ball Burglar. Why? Because in the midst of that depressing outing, when Jabari took the ball and made the return, as hope was being rekindled, as all of the excitement of Buffalo Bills football was coming back, I could smile with pride knowing Jabari had just cost me another $2 – $1 for the takeaway and $1 for touchdown. Bills fans added over $600 to the Ball Burglar’s takeaway bounty with that play, and it all helps the kids.

Takeaways matter. Kids matter. The Ball Burglar is all about kids and takeaways.

8. I like Terence McGee. He wasn’t right last week, but he’s back. I loved the mini-flanker screen where Terence fought the blocker for three, four seconds before finally slipping the block and making the tackle. He’s smart, tough and a team player.

Okay, I’m running low. (I don’t know anything about coaching. I don’t understand Xs and Os. I don’t know how to motivate players. I do know what I see. One thing I see is that this team doesn’t know how to win. It looked like they knew earlier in the season, but the first six games are almost like preseason. November and December is when the big boys play, and the Bills have yet to stand up and be counted with the big boys. I watched the Giants and Steelers last week, and I watched the Colts and Pats last night. There is a level of hitting going on when the big boys play – serious hitting – that is absent from Bills games. If the Bills don’t increase their aggression next week, they will get run out of the ballpark.

One more thing: Turk Schoenert, time to step it up. Something’s gotta happen on offense, baby. You and your offensive coaches have your jobs on the line.)

9. I like the Bills’ nucleus of players. I’ve said for two years that the Bills are building for 2009, that the base would be more or less complete in 2008, that the draft and free agency in 2009 and beyond will be about putting the finishing touches on a team to make a championship run. I still think that’s true. The Bills have their quarterback, their running back and their middle linebacker. They have the core of their entire defense. They still need work on the offensive line, and they need a receiver to emerge or be acquired.

A Buffalo News article explained that with the salary cap, teams can afford only 13 to 15 high priced players. The Bills have theirs. A few will be replaced with newcomers, but the core of the team that will make a championship run is here.

10. I like the Bills’ logo. That flying Bison, those colors. Love it. Love it every time I see it on a bumper sticker, a sweat shirt, a flag. Love it. Even today.

Hard not to be down after a showing like that. The Pats will smell blood on Sunday. Could be the Bills last chance to prove they’re for real.

GO BILLS!!!

Categories
Current Bills Games

Open Letter to the Buffalo Bills

To Whom It May Concern
Re: The recent Bills slump
From: A concerned Bills Fan

A recent series of events has led me to compose this letter to you, as it seems you may be in need of some outside guidance. I have been a fan and long-time supporter of your organization, dating back a couple decades now, and though I concede that you have more knowledge and experience in the proverbial “Xs” and “Os” of your profession, I do have a few recommendations that might be worth your consideration, and perhaps would improve the results of your weekly efforts.

First, congratulations on the fantastic beginning to this season. 4-0 is nothing to sneeze at, nor is 5-1 following a superb, complete victory over a very fine football team in the San Diego Chargers. In the first six games, and perhaps that game in particular, what I saw as an outside onlooker seemed to be a never-say-die attitude, and a strong desire (and confidence) on every play and on every series and in every quarter. You looked like winners.

The same can not be said of the past two games.

Every team experiences “slumps.” That is the nature of sport. One team wins, and another loses. The difference between the two is minor in detail, but feels much more “major” on the scoreboard and in the standings. Lately, besides poor execution on a handful of plays (which may or may not have impacted the final score of those games) there has been – to me – a significant shift in attitude.

Mind you, I am not talking about work-ethic or effort put forth on the field each play. I am only talking about the mindset, the “aura”… that apparent confidence and swagger that this team had early in the 2008 season that they were not only good enough to win, and that they could win, but that they were going to win. After a sloppy start in Miami (coupled with a tremendous start by their team) your team – the Bills – seemed to be hesitant, tentative, pushing, and … playing not to lose.

Sometimes, in a slump, no matter how hard you try not to lose, you still lose. In hockey, you can generate all the chances you used to have, but they ring off the goal post, or the goalie stands on his head to make a save he wouldn’t normally make. In baseball, your best hitters grip the bat a little tighter, and end up with stats worse than the guys who are usually at the bottom of your stat sheet. In basketball, even for your best player, the hoop can seemingly shrink to one size smaller than the ball itself.

But every team breaks out of a slump. It usually takes one thing going your way. I honestly thought it might be that ill-advised pass by Brett Favre yesterday. After so many things not going your way, I thought that might turn it around. But, giving credit to them, they put together a drive that finished off the game.

Slumps are very difficult to work yourself out of. Often, that makes it worse. In playing to break out of the slump (read: to not lose) your game gets tighter, your attitude shifts to a negative rather than a confident, positive swagger… and in tightening up, you lose.

This week, please remember that you are basically the same team that started this season. Every team deals with injuries, bad calls (both by your staff and the officiating crew) and other “breaks” that eventually balance out. But you can only control yourself. And mainly, you can only control your attitude. That attitude needs to be shifted back to the quiet confidence that you can – and will – win the game.

We’re back to one game at a time (not three division games, not five crucial conference games, just the game in front of you). There is a big game in six days and you all know you can win it. At least, you used to know that.

This week, work on fundamentals to be sure. Work hard in practice and work to correct mistakes from the past two games. Come up with a great game plan that uses your strengths and exploits their weaknesses. Those things all must be done. But most of all, as a team, remember that you can – and will – win the game when you take the field.

Next chance, 1:00pm on Sunday, November 9th.