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Bills 27 – Jets 31 – 10 Things I Think

1. It’s a terrible time of the season, and we’ve been there before. The Bills are out of the playoff hunt. You don’t want them to lose because they’re your team; you don’t want them to win because then you’ll be asking all night “why couldn’t they do that when it counted?” Then you get a game like this, and it’s the worst of both worlds: They play well enough to win on the road against a good team with a Hall of Fame quarterback, then lose anyway. Is there any pain like the pain of being a Bills fan?

2. I have to start with Whitner. If there was any doubt, I think he eliminated it against the Jets: Whitner plays pass defense just well enough to stay with his man and make the tackle after the catch, but not well enough to break up the pass. I can’t remember when I’ve seen him cause an incompletion covering a receiver. I’ve seen him come out of his zone to make hits on receivers, but simple man-to-man coverage, it’s a completion every time. This game was the worst. He led the team in tackles because his receivers caught so many balls.

I wonder what he will guarantee next season.

3. The defensive performance against the Jets also combined the worst of the Bills defense: A touchdown on the first possession (and for good measure, a touchdown on the second possession, too) AND a long run for a score. The Bills defensive strategy seems to be play the standard, passive defense for the first half, see how they’re attacking it, make adjustments and stop it. The problem is that it’s SO standard and SO passive that the Bills are always in a hole by the time they make their adjustments.

This defense gave up 3 points in the second half and got the ball back over and over for the offense. In the second half, the Jets had an eight play drive that ended with an interception, then five plays and a punt, three plays and a field goal (after the Losman interception), and then three straight three and outs. Once again, the defense played well enough to win (just barely well enough), if the offense had produced (or if the offense hadn’t given up a touchdown with two minutes left).

I watch the Bills on Sunday afternoon and then I watch the Sunday night game, and every week I have the same reaction: Why don’t the Bills hit like that? Did you see the Giants and Cowboys? They were absolutely pounding each other. Every player took every opportunity to deliver maximum punishment on every play. Steelers do it, Ravens do it, all the good teams do it.

Some fans say the Bills don’t hit enough in training camp. Some say they don’t practice outside. I think it’s all of that and then some. To succeed in this game there has to be a level of hunger, a level of frenzy, a level near madness that we never see from these Bills defenders. Poz makes picture-book tackles but never blows anyone up. When have we seen Whitner hit anyone this season like he hit Chad Johnson last season?

This isn’t flag football – it’s nearly a war. It isn’t Madden – it’s NFL football, for Pete’s sake.

Memo to Dick Jauron: I saw Yale (remember Yale?) beat Columbia this year. Yale hits harder than the Bills.

4. It seems like every year there are hints that the Bills will start taking some chances, doing the unpredictable. We see a little bit early, then they go back into their shell, and it only when the playoffs are out of reach that they open up again. Fake field goal in the first game, fake punt in this game. I think there was one other fake punt. Wendling leapt over the line to try to block a field goal in the first game, tried it again in this game.

We didn’t see the no huddle much at all.

It happens in games, too. First play from scrimmage, the Bills had several defenders on the line of scrimmage. After the first play, the linebackers fell back into their standard 4-3 spots. Not much blitizing, not much of anything that would take Favre out of his comfort zone.

5. We got the worst of both worlds with Just Pray Losman, too. When he’s your quarterback, there’s nothing you can do except give him the ball and Just Pray Losman doesn’t screw it up.

Just Pray said he was putting together a highlight reel, and he was right. This game had everything in the JP arsenal, except the long pass. We saw the rifle arm, the nimble feet, the short-ball inaccuracy, the indecision in the pocket and the turnovers. Touchdown pass was great, interception to Reed was pretty bad, interception to Royal was horrible, and the fumble was, of course, a total disaster.

I don’t believe JP finds the open receivers. He clearly doesn’t know how to pull the trigger.

And now I’ll say what Losman fans have said for a couple of years: At least some of the blame has to fall on the coaches. JP may make lousy decisions when he can’t find open receivers, fine. Then it’s the coaches’ job to run the plays where he CAN find them or to redesign pattens so these receivers CAN get open, because JP hasn’t had trouble unloading the ball when he finds the guy. When Trent struggled for several weeks this season, it was the same thing – the QB can’t find an open receiver. These quarterbacks have been having the same problems for two years now, and the coaches have failed to find solutions.

6. The grousing about the Bills’ playcalling will go on forever.

I didn’t have a problem with calling the pass play that lost the game. I can make the argument both ways; in the end I come out in favor of another run because (a) it was time to challenge the O-line to keep delivering and (b) Just Pray has a knack for making the big bad play. But it was second and five, the Bills needed at least one more first down, and the two-minute warning would have stopped the clock, anyway, so an incompletion wouldn’t have hurt that badly.

What bothered me more was not running out the clock at the end of the first half. It neither hurt nor helped the Bills. I’ve had this argument with people forever – I like running out the clock deep in your end on the road, because a bad outcome is more likely than good, and the Bills were down only four. I understand a lot of people see it the other way. That’s okay.

What I didn’t like about that decision was this: Jauron very clearly believes what I believe – kill the clock and win the game in the second half. If he believes that’s correct, it’s correct in every game, whether you’re 4-1 or 6-7 fighting for the playoffs. If you believe you maximize your chances of winning by killing the clock, why would you open up the offense at that point in the game against the Jets? Or if you believe you maximize your chances of winning by opening up the offense in the last minute of the first half, why have the Bills shut it down in that situation for the last 2+ seasons? There’s no point in playing hunches – just decide what’s right and do it.

7. Too bad about Hardy. I hope he recovers fully; next year was the year I was hoping he’d begin to prove valuable.

Nice touchdown catch by Johnson. Nice pattern, good grab (and nice celebration by Evans). Ugly run on the end around. The guy clearly is not a ball carrier, but most receivers aren’t. Want to know who’s a ball carrier? Ellison. That was a great cut on the fake punt.

8. Marshawn was magnificent. Still not a lot of running room, but Marshawn made the most of it. The offensive line, finally, seems motivated to run the ball. I have no doubt the O-line and Marshawn were disappointed when the Bills decided to pass before the two-minute warning. After Marshawn’s run, followed by the spectacular touchdown for Jackson, followed by the success running the ball right up to that play, I’d guess the O-line was thinking “pound it five more times and this game is OVER!” It wasn’t to be.

9. With all due respect to Mr. Wilson, I don’t think it’s the players. It’s the men who are responsible for getting these players ready to win. Granted, playing with JP is playing with one hand tied behind your back, but well-prepared players don’t:

Let the safety get a free run at JP when he fumbled.
Hold on the kickoff return.
Hold on the final punt return.
Give up opening-drive touchdowns every week.
Give up 40+ yard runs almost every week.
Congratualate themselves when they complete an 11-yard pass. The coaches need to explain to the players that the rules permit pass plays to go for more than 20 yards.

10. I have to say it again: I really like Leodis McKelvin. There weren’t many balls thrown at him, so that says something about him. Favre wasn’t picking on him (why should he? he had Whitner to pick on.) I loved Leodis’s pursuit on the Leon Washington TD run. Simpson couldn’t close the gap, but Leodis coming across the field could.

Nice kick returns. Too bad about the hold; maybe without the hold he could have made the run any way. (Can’t really blame Corto – that was one of those plays where he had to make the block, got locked up with the defender, and held. It happens.)

Leodis can play.

The Bills played pretty well against a quality opponent. Just well enough to allow us to see, again, that this team COULD be good, and just bad enough let us down, hard, one more time this season.

It is very, very hard to be an excited Buffalo Bill fan right now. The only guy who feels worse than all of us is the guy who has to sell new season tickets in 2009. How would like THAT job?

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Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 15 Picks

LAST WEEK: 12-4 :: OVERALL: 128-79-1

If not for my BILLS, I could have had the highest total of wins on the season last week. But, they had to prove who they really are. And apparently, they ARE that bad. We’ll see what this off-season brings. I still think they are just a few “tweaks” away. (Which could include a new coach…)

Only three weeks of the NFL season to go! Let’s see how week 15 might shape up…

New Orleans (7-6) at Chicago (7-6)

New Orleans actually put up a better fight than I thought they would, but in the end, I went with the home team who has Matt Forte. And I was right. WINNER: Chicago.

Tennessee (12-1) at Houston (6-7)

This may surprise some, but with Matt Schaub back at QB, and the Texans playing better overall, and playing at home (where they play well) … I’m going with the upset. WINNER: Houston

Washington (7-6) at Cincinnati (1-11-1)

There was a day when this game wasn’t so laughable. But, that was a long time ago. WINNER: Washington

Detroit (0-13) at Indianapolis (9-4)

Ugh. Two teams going in COMPLETELY opposite directions. WINNER: Indianapolis (by 31!)

San Diego (5-8) at Kansas City (2-11)

San Diego is clinging to division title hopes… WINNER: San Diego

San Francisco (5-8) at Miami (8-5)

Seriously, can they win three in a row against the AFC East?? Not on the east coast. WINNER: Miami

Buffalo (6-7) at NY Jets (8-5)

Unfortunately, with not much to play for (and Edwards not ready to go) the Bills should lose by 10 points or more. WINNER: NY Jets

Seattle (2-11) at St. Louis (2-11)

One of these teams will reach three wins! WINNER: St. Louis

Green Bay (5-8) at Jacksonville (4-9)

Both of these teams have had very different years than they expected to. Both had great seasons a year ago, and have been very unpredictable this year. I’m just going with the home team, though I’ll probably be wrong, since they are so unpredictable! WINNER: Jacksonville

Tampa Bay (9-4) at Atlanta (8-5)

A second straight big division clash for the Buccaneers. They will want to rebound from losing a close one with the Panthers, but the home teams are something like 11-0 in the NFC South this year. So… WINNER: Atlanta

Minnesota (8-5) at Arizona (8-5)

This should be a really interesting game. Minnesota still has their behemoth tackles, so Arizona will have to pass. But that is what they do best. Arizona has a decent defense, but can they stop Adrian Peterson? Tarvaris Jackson will start. I’m going with the Cards, as they typically play much better at home. They still have an outside chance at the number two seed in the NFC, too. WINNER: Arizona

Denver (8-5) at Carolina (10-3)

Denver has been so erratic this season, it’s hard to pick them. But against the consistently good Panthers, two time zones away… WINNER: Carolina

Pittsburgh (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4)

Game of the week here. Baltimore lost the first match up in PA earlier this season. Both teams are playing great football. Don’t want to miss this one. Steelers are still the better team overall. WINNER: Pittsburgh

New England (8-5) at Oakland (3-10)

New England plays its second straight west coast game. (Against far inferior competition.) But, the Raiders have beaten the Jets, and played the Bills and Dolphins in very tight games – down to the last seconds… Still… can you really pick the Raiders? WINNER: New England

NY Giants (11-2) at Dallas (8-5)

This game really could be good. NFC East games always are. Dallas wants it more, perhaps, but they are a mess. And, NY will not lose back to back division games. (Although Jacobs being out could hurt…) WINNER: NY Giants

Cleveland (4-9) at Philadelphia (7-5-1)

Philly is back to playing good football. Cleveland is bad. WINNER: Philadelphia

CONCLUSION

Some really good divisional matchups this weekend! Wish the Bills game was one of them…

Oh well. There’s always next year. (That’s been uttered by Bills fans for 10 straight seasons now!)

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Awesome Bills Fans Chiefs

Remember the good old days?… 2 Weeks ago?

You know how a picture is worth a thousand words? Well I put words IN the picture.

-BBR Other Guy

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Bills – Dolphins – 10 Things I Think

I had to work and didn’t watch the game. So this is 10 things a Bills fan thinks about his team, having seen 12 games and having “watched” a thirteenth on Gamecast.

1. I don’t think there can be any explanation for the total failure of this team to perform than failure of leadership. I think there is decent talent on this team, but the Bills are getting nothing out of them More below.

2. I think Trent Edwards is a good young quarterback who will play well in the NFL for several years, unless his injuries keep him from being effective. I think he would have had greater success this season with a more creative offensive scheme.

3. I think JP Losman is a physically talented young quarterback who, under the right coaches with the right scheme for him, could have some success in the league. Trent is and likely always will be better, but JP’s arm and his legs are good enough to win him a spot somewhere. It isn’t a secret, but he won’t be with the Bills next year. I wish him success. I like him.

4. To date, I have to consider Turk Schonert a failure as an offensive coordinator. How can you conclude otherwise, having seen the offense disappear over the pat few weeks?

Did you see Steve Smith’s touchdown catch against the Bucs? Carolina put him in a motion toward the center of the field, and on the snap the tight end came out into the flat. The pattern caused an instant of confusion and Smith was deep. There seemed to be small, creative details in the play design that I think is completely lacking in the Bills’ offense.

I think good teams create opportunities; I think the Bills are prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. Good opponents, even mediocre opponents, aren’t giving them opportunities.

5. The defense didn’t give up a touchdown on the opening drive against the Dolphins. It waited until the second drive. Once again, after giving up the initial touchdown, the defense played reasonably well.

No takeaways again, which is a sign of a passive defense. It’s a defense that doesn’t scare anyone, it just is fairly stingy when it comes to points.

The Bills defense isn’t spectacular, but it’s playing well enough to win a lot of games. Once again this year, the offense is letting them down.

However, I think the Bills defense is like the offense – it doesn’t create opportunities. That’s why there are so few takeaways. The defense isn’t aggressive and attacking. It plays conservatively and waits for the offense to make a mistake. Pennington kills this defense every year, because Pennington doesn’t make mistakes.

6. Imagine my excitement when I saw on Gamecast that Hardy had caught a first-quarter pass. Imagine my semi-disappointment when I realized he’d fumbled (at least the Bills recovered). Imagine my total disappointment when I read that the call had been reversed. Man, the kid needs work. I won’t give up on him this year. But next season he has to show something. No excuses then – he will have had a year to build himself up, to learn how football is played in the NFL. He doesn’t have to star in 2009, but he has to show us SOMETHING.

7. I can’t bear the thought that the Bills may need a new offensive line. I’m hoping it’s coaching; if the Bills need a new offensive line, it’ll take another three years to get an offense together.

8. It’s embarrassing enough to play badly before your hometown fans. We’re family, and unfortunately at some level we understand. It’s really embarrassing to take the team on the road, where the objective is to generate excitement for the team and make new fans, and then to play like that. Ralph Wilson called the 49ers game the worst game in Bills’ history, and he said it wouldn’t happen again. I haven’t seen yet what he called the Dolphins game. One thing is certain: it was the worst game in Bills history in Toronto.

9. I just can’t see how any management, even this one, can possibly conclude that a major coaching change isn’t needed. Wholly ineffective offense. No spark, no crispness, no hope. Uninspired play. Not only is the team bad, the games are boring.

There were a lot of questions about Dick when was hired. Those questions have been answered.

Maybe in some other environment, Dick could succeed. I don’t think so. I cannot think of a good professional football coach whose team has failed to show up week after week in important games. Dolphins, Jets, Pats, Browns, 49ers, Dolphins. The Browns game is the only game the Bills were even marginally competitive.

This is his team – his players, his coaches, his offensive and defensive scheme. A good coach with his players and his schemes wins. A bad coach doesn’t.

A friend told me that the Bills don’t have any big-time players. I simply can’t believe that year after year the Bills have failed – every time – to take impact players. The law of averages tells us that at least a few of these guys have to be good.

Think about how good we think these players are, and how unspectacular their play is: Whitner, Lynch, Hardy, Dockery, Peters, Edwards, McCargo, Losman, Poz, McKelvin, Stroud, Williams. SOMEBODY has to be good. It seems much more likely to me that these players are being taught a style of play that minimizes their talent, that loses.

I don’t see how I can conclude anything different.

10. I feel bad for the Bills good young players. Really bad. They’re experiencing football failure that they don’t deserve. They need the chance to play on a good team.

The Bills may be losing, but the Ball Burglar is still winning, helping kids who really need your help. Join today – pay a buck for every Bills takeaway. You’ll be glad you did. www.Ballburglar.com.

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Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 14 Picks

LAST WEEK: 9-7 :: OVERALL: 116-75-1

After a very mediocre week 13 (especially thanks to two late changes – Washington and Green Bay, but also thanks to an incorrectly published pick, Atlanta over San Diego) … I am starting to think I should just give up for this year!

But I press on. Here’s how week 14 might turn out.

Oakland (3-9) at San Diego (4-8)

Why are these Thursday Night games so easy to pick? WINNER: San Diego.

Atlanta (8-4) at New Orleans (6-6)

Big NFC South divisional matchup. New Orleans needs to win. WINNER: New Orleans

Minnesota (7-5) at Detroit (0-12)

Can Detroit win a game? Something tells me this is their best chance of their remaining schedule. WINNER: Minnesota

Houston (5-7) at Green Bay (5-7)

Two teams that are hard to figure out, but gotta give the nod to the home, cold-weather team. WINNER: Green Bay

Jacksonville (4-8) at Chicago (6-6)

It would be surprising if the Jags could finish this game with more points than the Bears. They seem to have packed it in already. WINNER: Chicago

Cincinnati (1-10) at Indianapolis (8-4)

Not long ago this would have been a very exciting game. Lots of offense. This time, it will be one-sided. WINNER: Indianapolis

Philadelphia (6-5-1) at NY Giants (11-1)

I still can’t figure why the Giants have only one loss. (And that was to Cleveland!) But Philly won’t stop them. WINNER: NY Giants

Cleveland (4-8) at Tennessee (11-1)

Tennessee gets a “patsy” for a second straight week. WINNER: Tennessee

New England (7-5) at Seattle (2-10)

Buffalo would like some help from Seattle, and the Pats are going all the way across the country, but… WINNER: New England

NY Jets (8-4) at San Francisco (4-8)

Can the 49ers beat a team from the AFC East for a second straight week? WINNER: NY Jets

Kansas City (2-10) at Denver (7-5)

One of KC’s two wins was against Denver earlier this season. Denver just shellacked the Jets. Yeah… WINNER: Denver

Miami (7-5) at Buffalo (6-6)

In the first ever NFL regular season game in Canada, the Bills are in a must-win situation, with their starting QB sitting on the bench. Still, can’t go against my team. WINNER: Buffalo

Dallas (8-4) at Pittsburgh (9-3)

This could be a good game, because Dallas can score points quickly. But look for the Steelers D to dominate Big D. WINNER: Pittsburgh

St. Louis (2-10) at Arizona (7-5)

Can Arizona finally win their division this week??? The answer is yes. WINNER: Arizona

Washington (7-5) at Baltimore (8-4)

Which team is the home team here? Both should feel at home. WINNER: Baltimore

Tampa Bay (9-3) at Carolina (9-3)

Another great NFC South matchup. This one is for the division lead. Tough call. Really could go either way, so I almost always give the edge to the home team there. WINNER: Carolina

CONCLUSION

Bills fans are rooting for Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Washington (sorta). And, of course, the Bills. That would be a great weekend!!

Here’s hopin…
Go Bills!

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Coaching Staff Offseason Recommendations

My Christmas List

About this time of year all around the world, boys and girls of all ages begin making their Christmas lists. They think long and hard about what they want Jolly Ol’ St. Nick to bring them under the tree or in their stockings. Some things come easy, some take more thought, but usually the list is full by the end of the process!

This year, Bills fans were treated to a 5-1 start, best since 1991 (a year in which we were also treated to our second-straight Super Bowl appearance) and that super start has definitely made the recent stretch where they have posted a 2-6 record even more pronounced and harder to bear.

So what do Bills fans want for Christmas? What’s on their Christmas list?

First and foremost, you’d have to think that since the season is technically still salvageable, Bills fans want to see four straight wins. Another quarter of the season where they are 4-0. And a win streak going into the playoffs usually spells success in the post season, too. So, beating all three division opponents, plus Denver out at Mile High… that would be tops for this Bills fan, and dare I say most Bills fans.

But some are taking a different approach.

Dick Jauron is in his third season as Bills head coach, and it’s really just time to “put up or shut up,” as they say. Jauron has only had one winning season in his career. It was a very good season: 13-3. But up-close observers say it was also helped along quite a bit by fortunate bounces and other lucky breaks. Losing bad in their only playoff game that year, and then tanking the next season would suggest they were right.

So now he has two 7-9 seasons with the Bills, and has taken a 4-0 start and managed to go 6-6 by week 13. What do those numbers mean for Jauron and his staff? I’d say they point toward an imminent coaching change.

I have been a big supporter of Dick Jauron. I really like his demeanor, even though most do not. I like the way he has changed the attitude of this team from an arrogant, self-centered bunch of guys to a team-first, hard-working, high character group of guys who love to play together, and are more like a family. I think that is important. And every report I hear is that the players love that, too.

But the question has become, is that enough? And unfortunately, I think after the Cleveland game in which the coaching staff decided to run three straight plays up the middle to settle for a 47-yard field goal (which sailed eerily wide right…) I realized what many have been trumpeting since Jauron was brought to Orchard Park in the first place: the man is just not a winning head coach.

Where do we go from here then? Is it time to rebuild? Time to offer another unproven (or just plain losing) coach the reins once more? Is it time to start over again??? In many ways, I don’t think it is, but if I could make the ideal Christmas list, it might look something like this…

Ralph Wilson Sells the Team to Jim Kelly & Friends

We don’t yet know who the funding source for Jim Kelly’s bid to buy the Bills might be, but the rumors persist that such a group exists. In fact, on Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago, Peter King actually mentioned that fact as though a plan were already in motion to make it so. Until that time, most reports had Wilson not selling the team until after he dies, so that would be a slight change.

To me, this is the key. The Bills have been around for nearly fifty years now, and most all of their head coaches have been second-level coaches. Almost never has a “big name” coach been brought in to run this team. Why? Partly because of the “small market” deal, where Wilson insists we just don’t bring in enough money. I’m sure that is true. But it must also be from the owner himself. It’s been his philosophy. Spend as little as possible, and hunt for the hidden gems. At times it works, but for the most part… it has not.

But, if Wilson were to sell the team to Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Sabres’ Owner Tom Golisano, and whomever else Jim can rustle up, the Bills might begin to take on a different shape. Jim was not a conservative player. He was a “gun slinger”. He always trusted his arm to get him out of anything. He was hard-headed, tough-nosed, and a gutsy leader of this blue collar team in a blue collar town. I have to believe he would bring many of those qualities to his role as majority owner of the team.

That would be #1 on my Christmas list.

Mike Holmgren

Nothing against Bills’ Chief Operating Officer, Russ Brandon, but he’s not a football GM. He is a business and marketing guy. And actually, he’s done a very good job. Bills season ticket base is second-highest in team history. The team has successfully “regionalized” and are hoping to further that with the 5-year Toronto Initiative. (First regular season game is this Sunday.)

But he’s not a football guy.

Most know that Mike Holmgren, currently the Seattle Seahawks’ head coach (and Executive VP of Football Operations… General Manager) is planning to retire from coaching at the end of this season. Another thing the Bills are sorely lacking at the moment is a good man at the top.

When Marv Levy decided to call it quits, the Bills lost their vision caster. I’m not sure Marv was doing much more than just being Marv-elous around the players, coaches, and staff around One Bills Drive. He certainly had a hand in bringing in the talent that is currently on this team (and pulling out the weeds from previous administrations) but he was definitely not the full role of the typical NFL General Manager.

Perhaps Mike Holmgren, a well-respected, long-time student of the game, would be willing to “retire” to a similar role with the Buffalo Bills? There is already a nucleus of talent. With a knowledge of the game, and of the league, and a track record of winning (won Super Bowl with Green Bay, got there with Seattle) it would make sense that he could do it again in Buffalo.

Look at what Bill Parcells has done for Miami in just one season. Perhaps Mike Holmgren could do something similar here with the Bills.

That’s item number two for my Christmas list.

Marty Schottenheimer

You’ve heard us say it on the show. You’ve heard Bills fans for a few years now mention his name here and there. You’ve just heard his name right alongside perennial playoff contenders for decades in the NFL. Everywhere Marty has gone, he has won. (He still has the “Can’t Win the Big Ones” monkey on his back, but perhaps that could change eventually? Given the right circumstances?)

Schottenheimer is still available. He hasn’t been snatched up yet. The Bills greatest struggles in recent years has been their offense. It doesn’t make sense when you have players like Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Roscoe Parrish, and even Trent Edwards who has shown so much promise, despite this year’s mid-season slump. Perhaps such an offensive-minded coach could be the impetus we need to move to the next level?

(Yes, I know, Schottenheimer played LB with the Bills when he was here in the 60s, but he is known for offensive teams. And he’s also known for winning.)

That would be Christmas list item #3.

In the end, I’m not sure I’ll really get any of the items on my Christmas list. The Bills have been very consistent in their mediocrity through the years, and most of it starts with the owner, and the way he wants to run his team. Bringing in guys like Holmgren and Schottenheimer are not his typical style. But, you’re never too old to change, are you? Ralph just turned ninety, and perhaps he’d like to turn over a new leaf for his team’s 50th anniversary in two years…

Or, maybe we’ll just keep plugging along with the status quo for Buffalo Bills fans. Some good moments, several bad… and year after football year that end with no meaning… no playoffs… and no real excitement for what lies ahead.

Well this Christmas, I’m hoping for the best. Either we win all four remaining games and make the playoffs, or Ralph calls it quits, and Jim Kelly (and his team), Mike Holmgren, and Marty Schottenheimer come in for the trifecta and take the team to Super Bowl 44 or 45, just in time for the Bills 50th anniversary season.

That would be a Christmas present Bills fans would not soon forget!

Merry Christmas, everyone! And to all, a BILLS WIN!

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What’s Wrong With the Bills

Funny how there is so much more to say when the team is not doing well! One good thing for the Bills is that they actually have quite a few talented players and even if this season is a bust, with new coaching could have a great year next year. The common theory that a coaching change mandates 2-3 years of rebuilding is really not accurate (it has been with the Bills but…). Jon Gruden took the Bucs to the SuperBowl in his first season. Mangini made the playoffs in his first season, So did Tony Dungy, Parcels, etc. There are many more than you might think. Even Tony Sparano has had immediate success with the Dolphins and has a real chance to get the team into the playoffs 1 year after 1-15. Parcels may be the GM but he is not coaching the team, Sparano is and he’s doing a great job. Singletary came in mid season and is already making a difference for the 49ers. I guess my point is that, if the Bills actually hire a good coach who calls plays and game plans to the strength of the players on the team rather than forcing the players to try to play in a pre-invented “system”, the team can see success quickly. The Bills have a lot of young talent on the team that could make the team very competitive quickly if properly used. What kind of Coach gives Lynch so few carries? Uses his inexperienced (somewhat unproven) QB to throw on critical plays rather than going to their proven ground game? Forcing guys like Leodis McKelvin, who is a strong man to man guy, to play lots of zone in the Tampa Two? You don’t need to completely rebuild a team if you know how to take advantage of the players you already have. Dick Jauron and friends scour the draft class for guys that might fit in their system while the best teams take great players and find a way to adjust the system to include them. Put Bobby April at the helm and the Bills would likely win their last 4 games and have a shot. With Jauron in there they really don’t have a chance.

It has become abundantly clear to me that this staff does not know how to get the most out of the talent they have on the team. There are two types of coaches, the ones who develop game plans based on the players they have and develop plays and strategies that maximize the potential of the players they have, and there are the type who develop a “Scheme” and try to force their players to fit in the “Scheme”. There are always going to be times when a player doesn’t work with the style of football you play (ditching a good linebacker because he is a 3-4 guy and you run a 4-3) but those situations should be the exception. It is easy to come up with a list of coaches who develop game plans based on the players they already have, they are the ones that consistently win football games.

As a Bills fan, how many times have you said something to this effect: “That play would have worked great if we had a better Tight End” or maybe “If we had a tall receiver we could have coem down with that catch”? The problem is that, if you don’t have a tight end who can make that play, you shouldn’t be calling the play. These are classic symptoms of inflexible “scheme” coaching. The Bills haven’t had a guy that knew how to utilize his players since Wade Phillips. Wade almost took it too far by trying to change players from week to week in order to come up with a better attack. A good idea with receivers etc, not with QBs.

So the Bills top priority is to find a good coach who knows how to make the most of his players (seems especially key in Buffalo where sometimes the team is a little cheap with player acquisitions). But the second priority is to find a new Quarterback. Sorry Trent Supporters, but this kid is just not tough enough for this league. At this point I have trouble making excuses for his totally inept play whenever the weather isn’t perfect. He’s sloppy, seems to have trouble with the cold (he’s really quick to get in his cape and seems to really be uncomfortable in the cold weather, just looks miserable on the sideline, like a Miami player in town for a visit, not a Bills player). Trent’s a nice guy, a good media man, seems to inspire his players and apparently the fans (its the only explaination for the undying support for a guy with really unimpressive career numbers) Trent has a 78.4 Career rating while Losman has a 77.9. If this is your idea of dramatic improvement over Losman, I guess everything is fine. Personally I think the Bills need a new starting QB. Losman is really not part of the discussion as he will most certainly leave as soon as the season is over and his commitment to Buffalo is finished. So even if the Bills want to stick with Edwards (a bad move I think) they will still need to acquire either a veteran free agent or draft another Quarterback to fill in the roster. Ideally they will do both.

Its hard to say which current QBs will hit the free agent market, but the Bills will probably take some mid-level guy, rather than spending big money for an older veteran. I’m ok with this, because the team needs to address the quarterback properly in the draft. Edwards may or may not have been a steal, but the team shouldn’t be banking on him being a success. Tom Brady was not drafted to be the starter. Bledsoe was their starter and was not even phased when they drafted Brady to be his backup. Belichick has said publicly, that they chose Brady because he was an inch taller than the other quarterback who was still available that late in the draft. It was dumb luck. The majority of the top quarterbacks in the league are taken early in the first round and come from one of the top football schools. The key difference being that only a dozen or so teams in College football use NFL style offenses.

The vast majority of college teams use simpler offensive systems where receivers are not expected to modify their routes according to reads. In the NFL, most teams encourage their players to adjust their routes according to the defense they encounter. The result should be more open receivers, but things become a lot trickier for the quarterback because the receivers are not where he expects them to be all the time. NFL quarterbacks need to be able to quickly read the field and instantly adjust to changed routes and find their open receivers. Coming out of college, players like Losman and Edwards who went to schools like Tulane and Stanford don’t get the benefit of coming into the NFL with experience operating a Pro Offense. (who knows what to call the mess that was Stanford football while Trent was there). So unless the QB is coming from a school like Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Boston College etc. there is a greater learning curve to be expected and a much greater chance the guy just won’t be able to handle an NFL style offense. The Bills need to stop being cute and go after a proven quarterback in the draft like Colt McCoy (although not necessarily him) who has essentially already had expeience in a Pro system. Then they need to start him right away rather than leaving him on the bench to lose all the momentum and excitement he had coming out of college and the draft.

The Bills also need to pick up at least three defensive ends and another linebacker or two. At defensive end they should look to free agency and pick up a proven talent as well as a project guy then also take the best guy they can get in the draft. They need to spend their top pick on quarterback, so probably a 2nd rounder.

The biggest question is wether the Bills brain trust has the guts to make the big moves. I think at least, they will fire Jauron. Ralph Wilson skipped out on the press conference after Sunday’s embarassing loss and seems to be thoroughly displeased with Jauron. NFL teams are not responsible for voided coaching contracts so there is really no reason to keep Dick Jauron around, regardless of wether there was an extension signed or proposed or whatever. Coaching contracts are little more than a show of intent. Lets just hope the Bills bring in the right guy to replace him. If they make the right choice, there won’t be any rebuilding to worry about.

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Bills 3 – 49ers 10 – 10 Things I Think

1. Why don’t we start by honoring a great football team in Orchard Park, NY? That would be the Orchard Park High School Quakers, who scored 21 unanswered points in the second half to win the New York State Championship in Syracuse on Sunday. 21-17 final. (Meanwhile, the other team in Orchard Park managed 3 unanswered points in a stirring 10-3 loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL.)

Congratulations to Section VI, which won FOUR state football championships over the weekend. No Section had won more than two in any previous year.

2. This week’s 10 Things requires more creativity than in past weeks, so be kind to me. Creativity is required because (a) there’s no point in savagely bashing the team and coaches for a couple of pages, and (b) NOTHING HAPPENED IN THE GAME. That was about the most boring football game I’ve ever seen. The level of futility reached a new high (or is it low?) for the NFL.

The LA Times captured it best: “San Francisco 10, Buffalo 3 – Can you imagine saving your money to go see one game all year, and this is the game you chose?”

Leaving the stadium, I overheard one fan say “nothing exciting happened in the whole game.” And he was nearly correct. Marshawn’s long run and a couple of other runs were exciting. Leodis’s kick return made the grade, as did one Roscoe punt return. That was about it.

3. McKelvin is really growing on me. He was schooled a couple of times by Isaac Bruce (including on the touchdown), but that would leave Leodis in pretty good company. Isaac Bruce has taught a lot of lessons in his career.

I was at the game and didn’t see good replays, but the interference call against Leodis seemed pretty weak. He also missed a couple of tackles in run support, but he was there to make the play – he’ll learn to finish. He looks decent now, and his potential is obvious.

And Leodis certainly has figured out how to return kicks. He’s downright scary back there.

In the second half, I actually found myself thinking the Bills had a better chance of scoring when they were on defense, because Leodis might get a pick. (Of course, I believed Marshawn could score, but the Bills weren’t going to give him the ball inside the 10. More about that later.)

I wasn’t thrilled with the draft pick at the time, but it clearly was a good move.

4. I entered the Stadium early on Sunday, and I walked right up to the security officer – no waiting. That was completely different from the Monday night game, when 45 minutes before there game there was a big (and dangerous) crowd, pushing people from behind and creating a frightening environment. People were getting injured and feared for their lives. I understand that as game time approached for the 49ers game, the backup grew again.

No need to worry about the crowds at the security lines for the New England game. All three BIlls fans ought to be able to get into the game without incident, unless 75,000 Patriots fans show up.

5. The Ball Burglar had an okay day – one takeaway. The Bills “forced” several fumbles, but they really deserve little credit for some. The one they recovered was, for the second week in a row, an unforced fumble – the ball carrier went to the ground without having been touched and fumbled on his own. Another “forced” fumble was a mishandled snap. Denney did force one nicely on his sack.

The Bills definitely need to do better taking the ball away, but it’s hard to do when the defense plays so passively. Against the 49ers, they didn’t seem to be in attack mode. There wasn’t much pass rush, there wasn’t a lot of blitzing, and there looked to be a lot of cover two again, with the linebackers dropping. The defense worked fine to keep the score down, but it didn’t produce any opportunities for the offense. In other words, the defense really played well, but it put me to sleep. The offense, of course, did nothing to rouse me from my slumber.

6. The defense gets high praise and a question mark at the same time. The question mark is the opening drive. The Bills are making it a habit, giving up a touchdown on the opening drive. I like deferring to the second half – the second half is the time to win games, and you want the ball to open the second half. However, it’s maddening to be down seven without even having had the ball.

Sunday was really bad – that was a 14-play, eight minute drive in which the defense let the 49ers convert four consecutive third downs. That’s absolutely horrible. It was passive defense at its worst.

(All season long the Bills have seemed to be unprepared to play at the beginning of the game. It’s one of many problems that lead me to believe that these coaches may be good teachers but not good game coaches.)

After that, the defense did what a good defense is supposed to do against a lousy offense: shut it down. For the remaining 52 minutes of the game, the 49ers gained 123 yards (77 passing and 46 rushing), were 3 for 11 on third down conversions and got only 7 first downs. At least one first down came on a Bills penalty. The 49ers couldn’t run and they couldn’t pass. Was it the Bills defense or were the 49ers just bad? I’ll give the nod to the defense, just to be positive.

7. Congratulations also to UB, in line for the second bowl bid in the history of the school – and first bowl appearance. They play exciting, watchable football. OBD, are you listening?

If you’re looking for an interesting article about how times have changed, read this article about UB’s first bowl bid, 50 years ago.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=buffalo58

I lived a few blocks from the UB field and used to go to some of those games.

8. Everyone fell down against the 49ers, even the special teams. Two missed field goals, an ugly punt, and Roscoe getting himself tackled deep on a punt. One time the players on the kick receiving team had to run to the sideline to remind Ryan Denney that he was supposed to be on the field. And didn’t the Bills call a timeout to get organized on special teams one time? (I’ve forgotten.)

Still, Bobby April is the only coach on this team who week after week shows that he knows how to make things happen. Year after year he takes whoever is available and turns them into top kick return and kick coverage teams. Currently 4th in kick returns, second in punt returns, second in kick coverage and 26th (!) in punt coverage. It isn’t an accident.

The guy knows how to organize his teams, and he knows how to game plan for his opponents. I honestly don’t know that any of the other coaches know how to do it.

9. Hard to know what we have in Trent now. All of the negative comments from months ago certainly look like they’re being borne out: can’t play in bad weather, injury prone, mediocre arm, etc. It’s really hard to know if yesterday was weather, the injury, his confidence, what. It’s pretty discouraging. I’m still confident that he’s a quality QB in the making. Sunday was not his finest hour.

The Bills got the same old same old from JP. Great arm – man, he really can deliver the ball. Not-so-good decision making. On one sack, they showed an isolated view of Hardy on the Jumbo Tron – Hardy was running a streak with man coverage, and he had at least seven inches on the guy Instead of taking the sack, why not throw it out there and let the big guy make the play? (Is that JP’s fault, or the coaches? I don’t know; but it was a better choice than a sack.)

I don’t think quarterbacking lost this game. I think coaching did.

10. Something is seriously wrong within the team (coaches and players). There were several questions after the game about why the Bills are late getting to the line of scrimmage. JP isn’t diplomatic enough to know how to avoid the issue in public – he said he’s a team guy and he’s going to keep team issues in-house. He said they can ask all they want; he will not talk about in-house issues. By saying that he made it clear that there are in-house issues. Trent was better covering it up, but it was clear even with him that this team’s play calling is disorganized.

What are the problems? Are Dick and Turk disagreeing about play calls? Who knows? What is obvious is that the Bills are sluggish and indecisive on the field and ill-prepared for games (that’s why they always start slowly). They have none of the crispness on offense that we saw at the beginning of the year. They are slow and predictable. Between the slow play calls, the runs and the short passes, it seems like Bills drives take five minutes to go 20 yards. It’s excrutiatingly painful to watch. In fact, the quality and the pace of the play takes the home fans out of the game. It’s impossible to be enthusiastic watching football played at a pace more suited to golf.

The entire team is out of sync. Trent scrambled and ran into his blocker. Fred caught a screen pass and ran into his blocker. JP passed up a a great up-the-gut scramble and cut to the outside for no gain. The special teams had their issues.

TV watchers probably couldn’t see it, but during one time out, with the Bills on offense, Takeo, Jason and Josh stood around the ball chatting. I hate to see that. After the game, fine, but during the game that guy is the ENEMY. I have to believe Tom Coughlin would chew their butts from here to San Francisco for doing that.

This team doesn’t threaten anyone, on offense or on defense. It doesn’t say “here we come to kick your butt.” Instead, it says “here we are, how about a friendly game?”

The Bills finally started running the ball with some success in the past few weeks, but against the 49ers they abandoned the run – Losman and Edwards attempted 38 passes, and Lynch and Jackson carried only 21 times. Take away Marshawn’s 50-yard run, and he still had 84 yards in 15 carries, almost 6 yards per. The Bills played the first half with an injured QB and the second half with their backup, against a mediocre rushing defense, averaged 6.2 yards per carry and passed almost twice as much as they ran!

The Bills ran seven plays (or more? someone said nine) inside the 49ers’ 10 yard-line, and Marshawn Lynch touched the ball once. Which was the one play he got the ball? Immediately after his 50-yard carry – no chance to get a blow, nothing. That was it – let him run fifty yards, call his number again; before and after that, never. Marshawn has to know that when he breaks a long one, he MUST get into the end zone, because the chances are slim that he’ll get another chance or that anyone else will get the job done.

This team at 5-1 was in ideal position to go to playoffs. As they entered crunch time in the season, they folded, badly. They didn’t show up for must-win game after must-win game. The Bills haven’t been ready for a game in six weeks. Even against Kansas City, without the Leodis INTs, they could have been in trouble. They gave up nearly 500 yards to a team with one win.

I look at all these things and I conclude the coaches don’t know how to make a team a winner.

I’m a Bills fan. I’ll watch forever. Next week, we’ll win. I know it. I don’t know how, but we will.

That’s what I think every week.

See you here in a week.