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Greg’s NFL Week 7 Picks

LAST WEEK: 9-5 :: OVERALL: 52-36

And then there was one. With the Giants losing on Monday night, there remains only one unbeaten team in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans are clinging to a 5-0 start with a fairly unimpressive win over the Baltimore Ravens (who are 2-3 after three straight losses) and for some strange reason, the division with the second-best record is the NFC South!!!

What is this league coming to?

Let’s take a look a my upset specials this week!

Dallas (4-2) at St. Louis (1-4)

I know, I know. They only lost to the Cardinals in overtime. But you gotta admit, the Cards pretty much owned that game. It was a miracle comeback that even allowed the game to get to overtime. Arizona deserved that win. And the week before that, Dallas came close to losing to Cincinnati, and they did lose the week before to Washington.. in Dallas! Now with Romo gone and several other important pieces of the team out (Roy Williams, or not) the Cowboys could struggle against a rejuvenated Rams team, who are also the home team. I know it’s an upset, but… WINNER: St. Louis.

New Orleans (3-3) at Carolina (4-2)

Here’s a game that pits two of those NFC South rivals against each other. New Orleans is surprisingly on the bottom of the division right now, and will be out to prove they are the best not the worst team in the South. Carolina will want to rebound from the beating they took in Tampa last week. Yikes. Both are very good teams. Tough game to call either way. Should be fun to watch! But, I gotta pick someone… WINNER: New Orleans

San Diego (3-3) at Buffalo (4-1)

Now, before you call me a homer for this pick… hear me out. The Bills are getting their starting QB back, apparently none the worse for the wear. They also get Roscoe Parrish back. They also are coming off a bye. They also play very well in big games at home. They also are awesome. (OK, that might be the homer coming out…) San Diego has been getting better each week, though, too, and with a big emotional win over their biggest rival of late – the New England Patriots – perhaps they come to Buffalo either “charged” up, or spent. In the middle of an insane, 16,000 miles of travel, I’m betting for the latter. Too many edges to Buffalo in this one. Buffalo proves they are legit. WINNER: Buffalo

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (0-6)

I am becoming a big Ben Roethlisberger fan. Seriously. I don’t even like the Steelers. But I am just shocked by how tough he is. Their line is awful, but HE is still winning games, even while he’s almost completely broken! The Bengals are just sad. They came close against the Giants and Cowboys on the road, but at home, still without Carson Palmer, they will be embarrassed by their division rivals. WINNER: Pittsburgh

Minnesota (3-3) at Chicago (3-3)

Lots of division games this week. This could be a pretty good game. Not sure really who the Vikes are this season. They can be dominant, or they can lose to just about anyone. Almost the same story for the Bears, but they looked pretty good even in defeat last week. Going with the home team in this one. WINNER: Chicago

Tennessee (5-0) at Kansas City (1-4)

I can’t believe the list of winners I am picking this week. Take a look at it at the end of this article. This game is another one of the crazy picks. It may just be a hunch. It may be Kansas City’s defeat of Denver earlier this year where LJ ran for 200 yards. It may be that I am not impressed at all with Tennessee’s team, particularly their offense. It may just be that I am crazy. WINNER: Kansas City

Baltimore (2-3) at Miami (2-3)

The Dolphins keep having success with their tricky offensive playbook, but will it be enough against the number one defense – in every category – in the NFL? Thanks to the Ravens’ anemic offense, they just may. Miami played tough again in Houston last week, coming off back to back wins over two AFC power houses. The Dolphins should triple their 2007 win total by week seven. WINNER: Miami

San Francisco (2-4) at NY Giants (4-1)

San Francisco is another confusing team. They have some great players. They have had some success this season. But at 2-4, not very much. Frank Gore could be a bit of a problem for the Giants, but you’ve got to think the Giants will want to prove that they are much better than they looked in Ohio on Monday. They were embarrassed. A loss to the Niners at home would be (perhaps) even more embarrassing. WINNER: NY Giants

Detroit (0-5) at Houston (1-4)

Can you remember the last time (if ever?) that a 1-4 team was favored by 9 points??? Detroit is that bad. And now they don’t even have Roy Williams. Or Jon Kitna. (Is that bad?) WINNER: Houston

NY Jets (3-2) at Oakland (1-4)

Believe me… I like Brett Favre. I have always like him. I think he gives the Jets much more legitimacy. Still… they just don’t impress me. And honestly, the Raiders do. More than in recent years. They have a pretty good defense, and a decent offense. I just don’t trust the Jets. WINNER: Oakland

Cleveland (2-3) at Washington (4-2)

Both of these teams had very different weeks last week. The Browns got their second win on Monday night against the defending (and previously unbeaten) Super Bowl champs. The Redskins seemed to fight off a valiant effort by the winless Rams, only to allow a completion on a desperation pass, and a last second loss on a long FG. Washington is a legitimate 4-2, while I’m not sure Cleveland is a legitimate 35-14 winner over the Giants. Will be tough for Cleveland to win, even with their potentially potent offense. WINNER: Washington

Indianapolis (3-2) at Green Bay (3-3)

Green Bay is still playing well, despite their young QB still playing injured. Indianapolis is playing better and better, because of their older QB. I want to pick Green Bay in this one because they are a good team, at home, playing a Colts team with a few injuries still… but… I can’t pick against Peyton for some reason. WINNER: Indianapolis

Seattle (1-4) at Tampa Bay (4-2)

Tampa Bay has had some impressive wins this year. This should have been a better game than it will be. Seattle will be making another trip to the east coast and it has not been pretty. I don’t expect this will be much of an “impressive” win for the Bucs. They should win easily. WINNER: Tampa Bay

Denver (4-2) at New England (3-2)

They only have two losses. The most recent was pretty bad. They also lost to Miami. That’s bad. Still, the Pats are 3-2. And they are the home team in this game. And, while it is really hard for me to think that the Broncos will win easily, I can actually see that happening. Cutler has had a good year, Marshall has had a great year, the Broncos always have a good running game…. if their defense can hold up against a weakened Pats offense… it could actually be pretty ugly. WINNER: Denver

CONCLUSION

You could never have convinced me before the season started that I would pick St. Louis, Kansas City, Miami, and Oakland to all win in the same week. Never. But, in week seven… that is precisely who I have picked. If that does actually happen… that will be insane. I’d like to point out in advance, that I predicted the insanity here!

Week six had some amazing finishes. What will week seven hold?

A Bills game! Go Bills! And see ya at The Ralph for the BBR Game!

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BBR Game! Oct 19th, vs San Diego

It’s time for the 2nd Annual BBR Game! We’ll be meeting up in the southwest corner of the northeast lot. (The lot closest to the stadium.) We’re planning to be making wings (Greg’s famous wings) as well as some other great tailgating “cuisine”. Be sure to bring something to add to the mix.

We’ll be there no later than 10am, and plan to hang out till about noon when we’ll pack up and head in for a big Bills win!!

BBR celebrities will be there, including your BBR hosts, the Ball Burglar guys, Tom Calderone, and the infamous Sven from Germany! (Maybe we can even get a cameo appearance by JP Losman?)

We will not be recording the show in the parking lot following the game this year, but that gives y’all more time to get your calls and emails in after the game.

Click the map below for directions, and we’ll see ya out THIS SUNDAY at the BBR Game!


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Donte Whitner on the Buffalo Bills Review

Just finished posting the latest Buffalo Bills Review – with special guest, Donte Whitner! It was a blast! We talked about several Bills-related things, and Donte’s Team20 foundation.

Bills’ rookie WR James Hardy will be joining us later this week. Plenty of great stuff, even on the Bills bye week!

Stay tuned!

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Donte Whitner - Buffalo BillsWe were joined on the Buffalo Bills Review tonight by Bills starting strong safety, Donte Whitner! Was a fun (pretty short) conversation where we covered stuff like his being the 8th pick in the draft (and how that was such a surprise at the time!) and about his big playoff guarantee. Plus, he has a foundation that helps inner city kids and kids from single-parent homes in various ways. Cool stuff.

So, if you are a football fan, and forgot that I have a Buffalo Bills show… click on over and check it out. James Hardy (Bills’ rookie WR) will be joining us later this week on the Bills bye week. Stay tuned…

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Hockey Is Back!

With football season in full swing, and alllll the other stuff going on around here in Campbell-land, it’s pretty hard to fit anything else in, but we were offered the good six-month promo price on digital cable so we decided to do it for the bulk of the hockey season. So far we have been rewarded.

I followed the Sabres’ offseason moves and was optimistic that we’d see a return to something more like the President’s Trophy season of two years ago. If you can extrapolate anything from only two games… we just may be!

The Sabres have won their first two games, one against the Eastern Conference champs from last season (with some great saves by our supposedly superstar goalie, as well as TWO goals in the shoot out – both of which didn’t happen much last year!) and the other in a blowout on the road – 7-1 over the NY Islanders today. If Miller plays as well as he did in the first game (and as well as he did in the previous few years other than last season) then we certainly can score goals…

Could be a fun year!

Could we have two championship teams in Buffalo this year??! (How crazy would that be??!)

So, busy here, but having fun.
Go Buffalo!

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Bills-Bye – 10 Things I Think

No football this weekend, but I’m still thinking 10 Things.

1. It’s been a very unsettling week. If the Bills had beaten the Cards, I would have been completely wired, frustrated that we have to wait an extra week for another game. If they’d lost a close one, I would have been disappointed but still optimistic, glad to have the week off. Instead, I’m worried. I’m filled with unsettling questions. Here are five:

2. Is Trent okay? Is this the beginning of a string of concussions that could end his career much too early? Can he play next week? Is next week too early? I like Trent more and more each week, and the thought that we somehow could find the Bills back in the quarterback market is very disturbing. I think Trent’s a winner. I hope, for his sake and ours, he’s fine, but I can’t stop worrying.

3. Does this defense really have what it takes? That was a pretty ugly showing against the Cards. As I wrote last week, it was a lot like 2006. Could not get off the field. Was it a sign of fundamental problems? Was it just a bad matchup on the road? Would it have been different if Trent had stayed in the game? Would it have been different without the four turnovers? How is Simpson? I think he’s an important part of the package. Is he going to be out long?

4. Should I blame the defensive woes on the coaches? After all, they set up the defense to stop the long ball, and they knew that the Cards couldn’t run, so why were our defenders giving the receivers so much cushion? Second half the defense did better – they got up tight, and they either broke up the pass or made the tackle as the ball arrived. But first half, the Bills simply let the Cards march down the field with short balls. It’s not like the Cards had some rookie at QB who might not have recognized where the opportunities were – they had Kurt Warner, who has killed defenses with his brain and his arm for a long time.

5. Was I premature in deciding during the off-season that our offensive line was set and would continue to improve? Will this offensive line EVER consistently create running room for the backs? Is this line susceptible to stunts, blitzes and exotic games by the defense? A well designed blitz took out Trent. Quality stunts have created several sacks. Is this line still learning how to work together to handle the totality of the rush, wherever it comes from, or are these guys just not good enough?

6. Some of you may have been wondering who I am and why I write 10 Things every week. Who am I? I was born in Buffalo in 1947. I remember looking forward to the very first Buffalo Bills draft. I went to the first Bills game at War Memorial Stadium. I attended the first Bills playoff game there in in 1963 and saw the Bills win the AFL championship there in 1964. I was at the opening of Rich (now Ralph Wilson) Stadium. I went to Super Bowl XXV. I haven’t lived in Buffalo for almost 40 years. I’ve been a season ticket holder for a couple of years and I drive over six hours, one way, to Bills games. What else do you need to know?

7. Why do I write 10 Things? Two reasons: I love the Bills, and I want you to join the Ball Burglar.

I figure about 2000 people read 10 Things every week. Most of of them haven’t joined the Ball Burglar yet. So now I’m going to ask you to do it. I write 10 Things for you; joining the Ball Burglar is what you can do for me. Go to www.Ballburglar.com, click on “Join” and do it. It only takes a minute or two, and it only will cost you a dollar (more if you want) for every takeaway, about $30 on the season. You’ll be glad you did.

Some of you know what the Ball Burglar is; for the rest of you, here’s the short version: The Ball Burglar is gang of Bills fans around the country who pay $1 or more (some pay as much as $5 or $10) for every takeaway the Bills get. We take the money and give it to great Western New York children’s charities like Hunter’s Hope and Carly’s Club. Last season we raised over $10,000; so far this season fans are paying over $300 per takeaway and we’re ahead of last season’s pace.

We’re a legitimate charity; payments to the Ball Burglar are tax deductible. We’re all volunteers; none of us makes any money on this.

Oh, and we wear burglar masks at the Stadium. Why do we wear masks? To encourage the Bills to take the ball from the other team.

But the Ball Burglar is more than another charity. It’s a movement. The point of the Ball Burglar is get thousands of fans to pay a buck a ball, so that every time the Bills get a takeaway, it will mean thousands of dollars to help kids. The point of the Ball Burglar is to get thousands of fans, not just a few loonies, to wear burglar masks in the stadium. When that happens, everyone in the country will see the masks and learn that people in Western New York, and Bills fans in particular, are special. We’re special because this is more than wearing a cheesehead or a hog’s nose, this is Bills fans caring about our team AND helping others. And, when the players know that WE (not McDonalds, not Coca Cola, but WE – ordinary, every day Buffalo Bills fans) are paying thousands of dollars for takeaways, the Bills will get more takeaways. There will be Ball Burglar chants in the Stadium when fans want takeaways, there will be Ball Burglar signs all over, including on the Jumbo-Tron, the Ball Burglar Song will blast from the loudspeakers.

Bills fans say they love being Ball Burglars. Every time the Bills get a takeaway, besides the great joy they already experience, there’s more. They feel pride that they and lots of other Bills fans just ponied up to help sick kids have a better life. It’s hard to imagine being even happier about a Bills takeaway, but it’s true. Try it. You’ll see.

Thanks.

8. I AM worried, but I’m starting to feel better. The Cards looked awfully good against the Cowboys. Warner was outstanding again. The Jags ARE good. The Rams aren’t as bad as everyone thought. And I have a lot of positive thoughts, too. I’m excited about our receivers. It’s not hard to be excited about Lee, of course, and Josh is a stud. What’s new that has me excited is that Hardy came alive, a bit, last week. I noticed that one of the Bills coaches explained that Hardy was never asked to read coverages in college. All he did was hear the play call, run the route and catch the ball. What we’ve seen from him this season is what reasonable people expected – a little growth each week. So it still will take time. As he gets a feel for what’s going on and learns to make his reads, he’s going to create serious problems when packaged with the other receivers. Roscoe should be back in a week or two. And I’m excited to see Fine. He’s supposed to be a smart route runner. Combine him with our wideouts (all of whom know their jobs except Hardy) and a good decision maker with the ball, and I think we’re going to see the passing game come alive.

9. I’m excited about the continuing development of the Bills. We are seeing AT LEAST what I thought we would see this season: a collection of good young players learning the game and learning to play together. It’s a serious team, and every opponent knows it. It’s a team that will be even better next season, after one more year of quality draft picks and a free agent pick up or two. There is a masterful building process underway, and the Bills are approaching the finishing touches. It’s exciting to watch.

10. What I really like about this team is that it’s full of guys who seem to be genuinely nice guys. How can you not like Lee Evans? Upright, supportive team player. How can you not like Trent Edwards? Hardworking, humble. How can you not like Whitner and Stroud and Mitchell and Greer and Walker and Marshawn? It’s a team we can be proud of, and they can play, too.

Okay, it’s time to start preparing for the Chargers. It’s time for this team to show it belongs on the big stage. It’s time for this team to say to me that there’s no need to worry.

Don’t forget – www.Ballburglar.com. It’ll only take a minute. Thanks.

GO BILLS!!!

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Greg’s NFL Week 6 Picks

LAST WEEK: 8-6 :: OVERALL: 43-31

Well, our Buffalo Bills are not playing this week, but there are still plenty of interesting matchups to follow in week six. Including a couple in our own division. New England plays at San Diego (both teams just lost to the Miami Dolphins!) and the resurgent Dolphins head to Houston to face a team that, in my opinion, is much better than 0-4.

Plenty to cover… let’s take a look at week six!

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Really, did you think before the season started that this would be one of the great games of the week? Carolina at Tampa Bay?? Probably not. But it is now, even with Jeff Garcia starting for the injured Brian Griese in Tampa Bay. Both have tough defenses. Both have adequate offenses, but I think the edge goes to the Panthers. They have a great ground game, Delhomme is playing well, and Steve Smith is… Steve Smith. So, even on the road in a tough place to win… WINNER: Carolina.

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1)

Being a Bills fan, I know that desperate teams play tough. The Rams really want to win. But, really… it’s just not going to happen. This should be a blowout. Washington is too good. WINNER: Washington

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)

Same thing here. Detroit may be hungry but we saw Minnesota play a very tough game in New Orleans last week, and I would expect even more from them at home… WINNER: Minnesota

Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2)

Now, I know I am in the minority here, but I really think Cincinnati is both due for a win, and talented enough to pull it off. The Jets play tough, and smart. But the Bengals still have offensive weapons. Look for a very close game either way, but in the end, the Bengals leave New Jersey with their first win of the season. WINNER: Cincinnati

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)

If you saw the game on Monday night, you’ll recall that the New Orleans Saints have quite a good team this year. And they (usually) play well at home. The Oakland Raiders have a better team than recent years… but are still in disarray. I’d say if the Saints can minimize the mistakes (turnovers) then they win this one by a couple scores. WINNER: New Orleans

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2)

Old Baltimore (Indy) vs new Baltimore. A battle of offense (Colts) vs Defense (Ravens). I keep wanting to count the Colts out, but Manning won’t let me. I was wrong to pick against them last week, and so this week, even though they are facing the #1 overall defense… WINNER: Indianapolis

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)

How can Miami be 2-2?? And by only using the same play over and over?? And how can Houston be winless?? They are much better than that. It ends this week. Houston puts it all together at home, and they stop Miami’s one play… WINNER: Houston

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)

This is another interestingly intriguing matchup. All of a sudden, Chicago seems to have some offense. They still have a great defense. But don’t forget that Atlanta went into Green Bay last week and won! That’s impressive. Michael Turner has been great so far this year, and rookie Matt Ryan has matched that greatness for the most part. They have won convincingly at home this year so far, but will be tougher against the Bears. Still… WINNER: Atlanta

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)

If Jacksonville’s running game could be trusted, this game would be really, really tough for Denver to win. Even at home, where they almost always win. The Jags still have a solid defense, a super-efficient passer (though less efficient this year) and two of the best RBs in the game. But Denver is 4-1 for a reason. They are tough, and tougher at home. Should be a fantastic game, and in the end, the home team wins. WINNER: Denver

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)

San Francisco gave New England a game last week, and now they host another team from New England, the Eagles. The Eagles are stumbling, and need to win badly to keep pace with the crazy good NFC East. San Francisco has talent on both sides of the ball, but I’d imagine Philly won’t accept an “L” at the end of this one. WINNER: Philly

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)

Green Bay has got to be pretty mad. They started out 2-0, but after a close loss to Atlanta last week at home, they are now 2-3. Aaron Rodgers played (and did well) last week, but he is playing injured. Seattle on the other hand is getting healthier. WRs are coming back. They are still a good team, despite their awful performance against the Giants last week. I can’t explain it really, I just have a feeling about this one. WINNER: Seattle

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)

Granted, everything changed when Edwards was taken out of the game on the third play last week. But all advantages and disadvantages aside, the Cardinals looked good. They even looked pretty amazing (offensively in the second half) against the Jets the week before. And on the flip side, Dallas has not looked great the past two weeks. They did what they had to against Cincy, but as I predicted here, it was a very, very close game against the winless Bengals. I think this could be a really good game! Both offenses figure on scoring points… 42-41 would not be out of the question. Even though the Cards play so tough at home, still gotta go with the ‘Boys… WINNER: Dallas

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3)

The big rematch of the AFC Championship game from last season. But who’d have guessed it would be Matt Cassel behind center for the Pats, and the Chargers limping home from a loss to the worst team from 2007, the Miami Dolphins? The Chargers are better than their record, but you have to question the loss last week. Were they looking ahead to the game against New England? Probably not. The Chargers have a lot of talent, and so do the Pats. But the Chargers are home, and have a little more. Tough game to call, gotta go with the Bolts, though. WINNER: San Diego

NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)

The NFL schedule makers are kicking themselves. A LOT. Cleveland has five nationally televised games this season, and they probably shouldn’t have any. New York has continued their late season success of 2007, and remain undefeated at 4-0. Even though they are heading to Cleveland, and the Browns do still have talent, I just can’t even imagine a scenario where the Browns can do enough to pull out the win. WINNER: NY Giants

CONCLUSION

Some really great games this week! Holy cow! Definitely looking forward to the NE @ SD game. Go Bolts! (They used to be the “Bills West”… maybe easier to root for them?) Dallas at Arizona… really could be more like 63-60! Baltimore/Indy, Jacksonville/Denver, even Chicago/Atlanta could be good.

Ain’t the NFL great???

Enjoy the bye week folks. Go Bills!

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Bills-Cardinals – 10 Things I Think

You know how you have bad dreams that recur?

1. That looked like 2006. Painful long drives against our defense. On offense, running plays going nowhere, short passes, an occasional deep ball, and JP making a few bad decisions. Throw in a good measure of penalties and other mistakes. That was hard to watch. It’s interesting that statistically, the Bills outplayed the Cardinals. Better yards gained per play, better in a lot of categories. Moorman had a great day kicking, but he only kicked it twice, because most of the time the Bills turned the ball over before they had a chance to punt.

2. Winning starts at the line of scrimmage. So does losing. As excited as I was last season with the Bills’ progress on the offensive line, I’m that disappointed this season. It’s time to declare the Bills’ running game a major failure. It’s a miracle for a Bills running back to get to the line of scrimmage without being touched, let alone getting PAST the line untouched. There is is no push, there are no holes. Nothing. Watch the game in a sports bar, where you can see other games going on. Every running back on every other team sees daylight, at least once in a while.

And the pass protection isn’t much better. Losman had his problems, to be sure, but some of them were because he had too little time. All that good pass protection we saw last year has evaporated. The Bills cannot win consistently without better line play. It looked like 2006.

3. Defensive line was no better. Couldn’t stop the run in critical situations – average yardage wasn’t bad, but on big plays, the Bills rarely held. Couldn’t get to the passer, ever. There was no blitzing for most of the game, and there was no pressure on the passer, either. (Clearly, Fewell’s game plan was to keep the linebackers in pass defense, and clearly it didn’t work. No pressure on the quarterback, and not enough linebacker-stops in shallow zones.) No line penetration up the middle, nothing on the edges. Looked like 2006. All you really know need to know about the game is to look at the tackling stats. Leading tacklers for the Bills were, in order, Greer (!), Whitner, Poz, Mitchell, McKelvin, Youboty. When your defensive backs are making all the tackles, something isn’t right.

4. One thing I like about the Bills defense is how well they tackle. The Bills had a lot of open field tackles; their problem was that receivers and ball carriers were running free for yards before anyone got close enough to make the tackle.

5. Ko Simpson is a player. He makes good, solid plays all over the field. When he’s out of the game, all I see is George Wilson late to the play. I hope this is a minor hammy, not a major one.

6. Trent looked good. Just didn’t see him long enough. Nice read and throw on the play where he got hurt.

JP, on the other hand, showed us vintage JP. JP just doesn’t do enough right to make up for the things he does wrong. And the things he does wrong are the same things he’s been doing wrong for years. He holds on to the ball too long, which turns into sacks, fumbles and interceptions. He doesn’t make good decisions.
One fumble and one interception is tough to overcome with good plays. It looked like 2006. (Can’t blame the first fumble on JP – that d-lineman was in there in an instant, and Marshawn freaked when he saw the defender there. Maybe, maybe JP could have seen it quickly enough and pulled the ball back, but I didn’t think so.)

7. Nice to see Hardy make a few plays. Nothing spectacular, but he found found some space underneath and caught the ball.

8. When the Ball Burglar doesn’t show up, it’s tough to win. The Bills weren’t close to a takeaway any time in the game.

9. How come the Cardinals can run those quick slants for 8-9-10 yards, and the Bills can’t? It took Jabari most of the game to find a way to stop that play, but they picked up some crucial yards with it early. What happened to the deep out routes the Bills have run with success? What happened to 15-20-yard throws down field over the middle? Does JP not find the receivers on those routes? Does Turk not call those plays for JP? How could the Jets throw all over the field against the Cardinals, and the Bills couldn’t throw at all? Take away the deep throw to Evans (JP can get it downfield, can’t he?), and the Bills threw at about a 6.5 yards-per-attempt. Looked like 2006 out there.

10. The Bills did not look like a playoff team against the Cardinals. They didn’t look like an 8-8 team. They looked like a team with no playmakers, no way for the defense to get off the field, and no answer at quarterback. It looked like 2006.

Good time for a bye. Time for Trent’s head to clear, time for McGee and Roscoe and Ko to heal, time for the lines to look themselves in the mirror. The schedule gets tougher the rest of the way.

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Greg’s NFL Week 5 Picks

LAST WEEK: 7-6 :: OVERALL: 35-25

Last week was probably not the best week to start tracking this here. 7-6 is not a great week of prognostication, to be sure. But I knew that’s how it would be! For some reason, when the picks are “obvious”, it never turns out that way.

That should bode well for this week.

Several interesting match-ups that could go any way this week. Let’s get right to ’em.

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3)

This game is not difficult to pick. Chicago has been playing really well. Could actually be 4-0, if not for two fourth quarter collapses this season. They hung in against Philadelphia and went to 2-2, instead of 1-3. And, even though the Lions fired Matt Millen, there will be no improvement with them… at all. I don’t plan on picking Detroit at all this season, actually. WINNER: Chicago.

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-3)

Miami is playing their first game after Ronnie Brown’s big 5 TD day against New England, which I’d imagine will give them some confidence. They are also the home team. I think that might be all they have going for them. On paper, this is an easy pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s close. But, SD wins. WINNER: San Diego

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)

Another NFC East battle. So far they are definitely the toughest division. Washington went into Dallas and beat the apparent #1 team in the division. Now NY thinks they are the #1 team in the NFC East, but one of these teams might think otherwise. Washington is very balanced, and Philly looks a little vulnerable after failing to finish the comeback in Chicago. Philly is the home team, and so they are a smart choice, but I just have a feeling Washington is a bit better overall. WINNER: Washington

Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0)

The Seahawks and Giants are both coming off their bye, but Seattle is traveling across the country to play in New Jersey. The Giants are still undefeated, and after barely squeaking by Cincinnati, are probably looking to prove that they deserve to be one of the three undefeated teams in the NFL. Seattle played well in their last game, but it was against St. Louis who has not been much of a challenge on the scoreboard for any team they have played so far. Seattle may challenge NY, but the Giants will prevail. WINNER: NY Giants

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)

When you look at this game, 1-2 vs 0-3 doesn’t seem like a very good game at all. Indy has lost a step perhaps. Houston hasn’t managed a victory. But that will not be the case. Indy is still a good team, and they will be a tough opponent for the Texans, even playing in Houston. But Houston has lost to good teams (Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Jacksonville) and last week took the Jags to overtime. Due to being displaced by a hurricane, this will be Houston’s first home game of the season. I just have a feeling this will be Houston’s week. WINNER: Houston

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)

Even though these teams have the same record, it’s safe to say they are perceived differently. Atlanta is still quite unknown, winning both of their games at home, but losing the road games by equal 24-9 scores. Green Bay’s young QB Aaron Rodgers was injured in last week’s game and may not play this week, and that spells trouble for GB. Look for Michael Turner, Matt Ryan and crew to put together a solid effort and get their first road win of the season. WINNER: Atlanta

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)

These teams have opposite records for a reason. Despite KC’s surprising performance against Denver, and LJ’s near 200-yard day, Carolina’s defense is much stiffer, and their offense may be equal to Denver’s… look for a fairly easy win for the Panthers at home. WINNER: Carolina

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1)

Tennessee and Buffalo are both 4-0 vs competition that is 3-12 and 4-11 respectively so far. That has led some to question Buffalo’s legitimacy as an undefeated team, but for some reason Tennessee’s 4 for 4 performance has received less scrutiny. At home the Titans are definitely tough, and they should be a solid favorite to win against the Ravens, playing on a short week after an OT loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. But the Ravens #1 defense is for real, and the Titans will rely on their top-rated defense to keep them in the game. Even on the road, give the slight edge to Tennessee’s offense over Baltimore’s anemic offense. WINNER: Tennessee

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)

This game should be really interesting. It’s really hard to win in Denver. Really hard. And Denver is off to a great start on offense. But Tampa Bay is off to a great start of their own. They have some quality wins over two former NFC Central foes, Chicago and Green Bay. Their only loss was by four points, on the road, to New Orleans. They have weapons on offense and a good defense… a win in Denver would be a good sign that they are for real. And I think they get it. WINNER: Tampa Bay

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)

Can you believe that we are even giving San Fran a chance in this game? At 2-2, they have improved. Frank Gore is still a good running back. They have some players on defense. J.T. O’Sullivan is… a quarterback. And yet, for some reason (maybe a 38-13 drubbing at the hands of last year’s 1-15 team???) there is room for doubt in this game. The Patriots are making the cross-country journey. That’s never easy. But Belichik’s teams almost always win after the bye. Especially when they are mad. WINNER: New England

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)

Now, this is not going to make a lot of sense. I know, Cincinnati is 0-4. I know, they could only score 12 points against the Browns, at home. But Carson Palmer says he’ll play. Dallas proved they are more than human. They will be mad, but so is Cincinnati. The Bengals don’t like to lose either, and I feel that if Palmer is healthy, he and the Cincinnati receivers will do some damage against Dallas’ defense. Still, the mismatch is too great. WINNER: Dallas (just closer than you might think.)

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)

The Bills look to extend their perfect record in the desert of Arizona. The Cards are coming off an embarrassing performance against the NY Bretts, and as is often said, they are a different team at home. They have multiple weapons on offense, but there is a good chance one (Anquan Boldin) will not play Sunday. There’s also a good chance that Buffalo’s Terrence McGee will not play either. Everything seems to say the Bills will continue their winning ways, but AZ is definitely a better team at home. They will hang with the Bills the whole time, but Buffalo plays their best, most consistent game of the season heading into their by week, and they head home 5-0. WINNER: Buffalo

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2)

Both of these teams have had more than their share of injuries this season so far. Despite that, they have decent records, and my hunch is that (playing at home) the Jags will make sure they finish the day with equally good records. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will dominate, Garrard will do enough, and the Jags defense will also do enough. WINNER: Jacksonville

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)

Minnesota has a great run defense and a superior RB. New Orleans has a superior passing offense, and good running backs, and a capable defense – and they play well at home. Minnesota is a bit better than 1-3, but should end up on the short side, mostly due to the mismatch of New Orleans’ offense versus any other team’s defense. WINNER: New Orleans

CONCLUSION

A few games that could be surprising. Watch the underdogs: Seattle, Cincinnati, Miami. And I picked five underdogs to win outright: Houston, Washington, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Should be an interesting week of NFL football!

Go Bills!

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Categories
Hall of Fame NFL Players

Trent Edwards, Joe Montana: Many Similarities

Trent Edwards and Joe Montana
Most people don’t like to rush to equate young NFL players with Hall of Famers of legendary status. Obviously, earning the rank of “legend of the game” takes many years of consistent production, and can not be applied to any player in his first or second year in the league. I would not presume to equate any such novice with any aforementioned Legend.

But I am shocked by the similar starts to their careers.

As I said, Joe Montana is a legend. I can’t say it enough. Every time I say his name it is like the pure definition of the word quarterback. They are synonymous. When I first began watching football games some 20 years ago, I quickly learned that Joe Montana was the king of his craft. With him under center, the 49ers were never out of the game, and were usually going to win the game. Precision passing, a great knowledge and understanding of the game, quick decision making, and cool, calm and collected demeanor. That was Joe Montana.

And it sounds a lot like how we describe Trent Edwards. Let’s take a look at just how similar they are.

Bill Walsh
The first thing that comes to mind is Montana’s former coach, the late Bill Walsh, has often been cited as commending Marv Levy and crew following their selection of the QB in the third round of the 2007 draft. Walsh knew that Edwards was something special, and he called up Levy to tell him so. The Bills had Edwards rated very high in the draft and were thrilled when they picked him up in the third round. Hearing Walsh’s endorsement of him as “the real deal” (or something to that effect) only further confirmed their selection.

Passing Style
I mentioned some of this above, but it bears repeating. As I have watched Trent this season, I’ve heard comparisons to a young Tom Brady. Brady was an unknown mid-late round draft pick who has obviously excelled. But I never quite bought that. Brady has a very different style. He has a slightly stronger arm and excels at the deep ball. Edwards can throw the deep ball, but that is not his strength.

It finally hit me a couple weeks ago. The closest match is Joe Montana. Montana was a very poised, confident, cool and collected leader on the field. His team was never out of it, and they believed he could bring them back. We see that already from Trent and his teammates. Montana didn’t have the great physical talents of Elway (rocket arm), Marino (lightning-quick release), or Kelly (toughness, grit, and strong arm) of his day, but he always made the perfect throw to the perfect guy.

Accuracy
On top of his decision making, Edwards has been right on the money with his passes. He throws a perfect pass to the perfect place for his perfect receiver. He completed 80% of his passes in one of the games this year, and for the season is completing 65.5% of his passes. Montana was also an incredibly accurate passer. He was consistently between 65 and 70% for much of his career. A lot of this is attributed to being able to read the defense quickly and correctly, but of course also a testament to the skill of the passer, throwing an accurate ball.

The Draft
Trent Edwards was projected by some as a late first-round choice. The Bills were shocked that he was still on the board when they were making their third-round selection in the 2007 draft. They had to take him, even though they weren’t planning to take a QB till the later rounds. Edwards was drafted in the third round of the 2007 draft at number 92 overall. Not too surprisingly, the Legend, Joe Montana was drafted by the 49ers in the third round of the 1979 draft, pick #82 overall.

Comeback Kings
This is perhaps the greatest similarity – and what alerted me to how much Edwards is looking like Montana. Joe Montana is known for connecting with Jerry Rice – a lot – and for winning Super Bowls, and for the things I mentioned above. But perhaps above all, he is known for engineering fourth quarter comebacks. And really, what better stat is there? Elway was great at this. And Montana was a master. He engineered 31 come from behind victories in his 16 year career, 26 of them as a 49er.

Trent Edwards has only started 13 games. Less than one full season. Thanks to trailing by one point at the start of the fourth quarter in yesterday’s game against the Rams, Edwards is credited with another fourth quarter comeback in his fledgling career. Actually, that makes five. FIVE. Not only is Edwards a fairly impressive 9-4 as a starter, he also has five 4th quarter comebacks under his belt. Well on his way to 31? Perhaps…

First Year as a Starter
This is where I am getting into speculation a bit, but bear with me.

Joe Montana played a few games in 1979 and 1980. In fact, his first 4th quarter come from behind win was in December of 1980, subbing for the starter, Steve DeBerg. His play that season solidified him as the starter for the coming season. San Francisco had been 2-14 in ’79, and then 6-10 in ’80 – definitely not impressive. But 1981 was coach Bill Walsh’s third season. He had been building the team in his image (much like Dick Jauron – currently in his third season – has done with the Bills) and they were poised to succeed under their new field commander.

Montana led the 49ers to an impressive 13-3 record that season. But it didn’t stop there. That team, which Montana was officially commanding for the first time, hosted the NFC Championship game against Dallas. Dallas had a lead with under five minutes to go in the game. Montana got the ball at the 1 yard line and engineered an 89-yard drive that culminated with “The Catch.”

A come-from-behind victory, taking his team to the Super Bowl. In his first season as the starter, in his coach’s third season with the team. They even went on to win the Super Bowl that season. Montana had pretty average numbers, but as always, got the job done, and got the W.

Edwards’ team is off to a 4-0 start, with three fourth quarter comebacks engineered by the poised, cool and collected, confident, unflappable quarterback. Could we possibly be seeing history repeating itself?

Bills fans certainly hope so!

Montana not only took his team to the Super Bowl – and won – his first year as the starter, but that really ushered in an era of dominance by Montana and the 49ers. They won four Super Bowls during his time there, and were a perennial force in the NFC.

Conclusion
It’s obviously too early to call Edwards a legend. Or even a legend-in-the-making. But you have to admit… he bears a striking resemblance to The Legend. The Legend’s coach saw something in this kid, too.

If Edwards is even close, Bills fans can look forward to great football for many years to come.