Buffalo Bills Review

Alrighty, then. That’s what I’m talkin’ about. Keep adding talent.

1. The draft is much more about not making mistakes than it is about getting the very best player. Sooner or later you need some of the very best, but what you really can’t afford is to blow a high pick completely. Mike Williams hurt a lot more than taking Whitner over Ngata.

So the big question after the first day was whether Aaron Maybin will be a quality starter in the NFL. The DEs were the biggest questionmarks at the top of the draft. But the Bills needed someone on the front four who can get consistent pressure from the edge. The Bills had to get in the DE lottery and take their shot. If Maybin brings quality pressure from the edge, this draft looks like a home run. If he doesn’t, well, it can’t be a good draft if you strike out at #11.

2. The Maybin pick, and the absence of any real effort to get a linebacker, means the Bills still intend to generate pressure on the quarterback from the front four, not the front seven. They’re staying true to the Tampa 2 philosophy. It’s up to Schobel, Williams, Stroud, Maybin, Kelsay and Denney to get the job done.

3. I really like the Wood/Levitre picks. I don’t know how good these guys are; I’m not a talent evaluator, I don’t follow college ball, and I don’t know the intricacies of offensive line play. What I like is the Bills understanding that they MUST pay attention to the offensive line. It’s stating the obvious, but coming into the draft I was worried that the Bills would chase after DEs, linebackers and who knows what. Fortunately, the Bills get it. They couldn’t get the best tackles, so they got the best center/guards.

4. The Wood/Levitre picks tell us some very interesting things about the Bills.

a. The Bills really do think they can solve the tackle problem with the guys they have. They didn’t trade up to get one of the top three tackles, and the they didn’t trade up from 28 to get Oher. They didn’t manage the second round to get one of the remaining decent tackles. That means they think Chambers can do it (so do I). Or it may mean that they think Bell can do it this year – maybe Bell moves into the spot during the bye week. It may also mean that Butler is moving back to his college position. Whatever the plan is, the Bills think it’s good enough not to chase after a tackle.

b. Listen to the first-day press conference with Brandon, Modrak and Jauron. They described these guys with the same words – gym rat, hard working, football IQ, etc. But one word stood out. They kept saying it over and over. The word was TOUGH. They said it with an edge. “He’s a TOUGH kid.” That’s why they like Butler, too – his toughness. He really wants to mix it up.

Why is that so interesting? I think what the Bills leadership didn’t say over the past couple of months was that Dockery decidedly was NOT tough enough. He wasn’t. He was a passive offensive lineman. Big, but mechanical. Preston was the same. Frankly, I’ve had the same thought about Peters, and I suspect that contributed to the Bills decision not to pay what Peters wanted. Peters made some great plays, but I rarely saw him play with the grit and determination that the really good players show.

The Bills are making a statement – if you aren’t nasty, don’t apply. If their evaluation of these two rookies is correct, the Bills’ offensive line will look decidedly different this season.

5. Byrd? I think you have to keep drafting DBs. It’s hard to find good ones. Their careers are short; they get hurt or they slow down. You lose them in free agency. You need about eight or ten every year, between corners, nickels and safeties. I thought the Bills would take a DB sometime on the second day.

Clearly, the Bills rated Byrd so high that they didn’t want to pass him up, much the way they took Edwards in the third round a couple of years ago. I’d guess the Bills figured Byrd wouldn’t be there and were plannning to go for Levitre. When he was there, the Bills probably got on the phone to see if they could trade for another second round pick. When they discovered they could, they pulled the trigger on Byrd.

Byrd apparently has outstanding ball skills, something none of the current DBs has (McKelvin closes well, he just doesn’t catch it so well). Byrd’s also a really smart player. I think he’s probably a Jim Leonhard with better raw physical talent. Still, I worry about guys that short. I worry about his speed, although free safeties typically aren’t the fastest guys on the team.

I wonder what it means about the present safety tandem. What we’ve heard is that Whitner was to be the free and Scott the strong. So when Byrd is ready, does Whitner move back? If you’re moving Whitner to free, why didn’t the Bills look for a replacement for Scott? There are a lot of questions about the pick, but I suppose they’re all answered simply by saying the Bills really liked Byrd.

One thing it probably means is that the George Wilson experiment is over. Possibly Wendling, but more likely Wilson.

I’m not even close to thinking Byrd was a mistake. The guy has Ball Burglar written all over him. Get out your checkbooks, fans.

6. The tight end fans got their wish, sort of. I have to admit that even I, the guy who says tight end is the least important player on the offense, was warming to the idea of Pettigrew if he fell to the right spot for the Bills. The Bills had other more important needs, however, and Pettigrew fell to others. Then the Bills traded their third round pick to get Levitre, another good move, so they had to wait until the fourth to shop for a TE. I thought that meant the search for a TE would go on for another year.

What the Bills found in the fourth round, surprisingly, was a wideout. Have you watched the video of Nelson? The guy’s a big wideout. He can run, he has great hands, and he likes to fight for the ball. Really impressive. Watch the video of him.

I didn’t think the Bills needed another big offensive threat at tight end – the Bills already have an outstanding receiving corps – two #1 wideouts, a good slot man, promising youngsters and three running backs who can catch and know what to do after they catch it. Now the Bills, at least in some situations, are going to put a tight end on the field who is going to be an enormous challenge for the defense. How is anyone going to defend Lee, TO, Josh, someone out of the backfield and a 6’5″ kid who can run, jump and catch? Good luck.

The Bills need a blocker first, receiver second. The Bills say Nelson can bulk up to be the guy they need as a full-time tight end, but that’s probably 2010, not 2009. Nelson says he can block, and maybe with the Bills’ new stout offensive line, he’ll be enough. I don’t think he’s an immediate starter, but he should be a situational player this year.

I’m sure there’s a reason this guy fell to the fourth round; I just don’t know what it is. If Nelson bulks up and becomes an effective blocker, watch out. It’s easy to see him being Tony Gonzalez. Seriously. Watch the video.

The Bills have had an interesting progression in the draft at tight end. Think about it: The Bills hoped Kevin Everett would be what they now hope Nelson will be – the tight end who can stretch the field. Then Schouman – the H-back, second tight end-type, clearly not the everyday player at the position. Then Fine, more the prototypical tight end, but probably not big enough. Now Nelson.

I still think the Bills will sign Wrighster. If they do, Schouman’s days as a Bill are over; Fine will hang on to play special teams and fill-in duty at tight end, but that’s about it.

7. Nic Harris is a very interesting pick. Again, it confirms that the Bills are sticking with their Tampa 2 philosophy. Nic Harris is another Ellison; I hope he’s better. The guy apparently has a high football IQ, great anticipation, and loves to hit. He probably has the mobility to play the game the Bills want, and he may be a better attacker than Ellison.

In fact, the first three defensive picks have one thing in common – they are playmakers. The Bills are lacking in playmakers – I think the Bills actually have them but don’t turn them loose. These three picks suggest to me that the Bills decided that they need some guys who will be more than solid, guys who will attack the ball and the ball carrier. Maybin’s pass-rush specialist. Byrd’s a pick master; he finds the ball. Harris is a playmaker.

Harris may not make it, but he could turn out to be a big surprise. Can you say Ball Burglar?

8. I think every draft breaks down this way: In the first, second and (maybe) third rounds, you must get players who WILL play, maybe not as rookies, but who will be starters eventually. First round you hope for rookie starters. In the fourth and fifth rounds you should get players who SHOULD play, but who aren’t sure things. In the sixth and seventh rounds you should get players who MIGHT play. So I don’t get too excited about the 6th and 7th round picks.

Why DBs? I don’t know; I suspect it’s simply that those guys were the best value on the Bills’ board. They’re trying to find guys who, despite the odds, will make it. At 6, there’s no point in taking a tackle you don’t think will make it over a DB who you think might. I would have liked to see OT or OLB or DT next to the names the Bills picked at 6 and 7, but it simply didn’t fall that way. I didn’t go into the draft thinking the Bills were going to get a game-changer at 6 or 7, so I’m not going to get upset that the non-game-changers the Bills took were at a position where there seems to be little need.

9. I’m always the same the day after the draft. No matter how hard I try, I envision every guy taken from the first through the fifth rounds a starter for the Bills – an immediate starter. It never happens, of course. One through five rarely all make the team, let alone start. Somehow, this feels different. The Bills took two of the best interior linemen in the country, and I think they’re pretty safe bets. The Bills must think Byrd is a starter within two years or they wouldn’t have gone after him aggressively like that. Maybin is the wildcard – is he Dwight Freeney or is he another quick college defensive end who’s going to get handled by the best offensive linemen in the world? Nelson will make the team; if Harris does too, this was a heckuva draft. If Maybin gets sacks and Nelson and Harris play significant downs, my oh my.

10. The Bills have been building and building for four years now. There have been a few notable missteps along the way – Dockery’s bust, losing Peters (although they got picks for him). Some decisions that haven’t worked out – Dockery, Fowler, Kelsay. But there has been serious, steady building. Butler, Walker, Edwards, Lynch, Hardy, Johnson, Williams, Stroud, Poz, Mitchell, McKelvin, Whitner, Scott, Youboty, Corner. Add Hangartner, Owens, Rhodes and now this draft class. That’s a lot of new – and good – talent. It’s too much talent not to win. It’s the same defense, with Schobel back, Poz having learned the ropes, and a new pass rusher on board. It’s the same offense with a remade offensive line that should be as good as last year, plus Terrell Owens and a big new target at tight end.

As I’ve been saying for months now, the spotlight is on and will stay on Jauron, his staff and Trent Edwards. When you’re the Lions, you have an excuse for not winning. The Bills have no excuses now.

Okay, here’s something for you beat up while you’re waiting for the draft to begin. A friend of mine sent me the following, which apparently appeared in the Sporting News:

“Teams That Handled Free Agency WORST”: BILLS – They re-signed Marcus Stroud and added WR Terrell Owens (is that a plus?). But they lost versatile LB Angelo Crowell and Gs Derrick Dockery and Duke Preston,and had to trade Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters when they couldn’t re-sign him. Buffalo also let solid CB Jabari Greer go and replaced him with Drayton Florence, who was a free-agent bust with Jacksonville in 2008. “

Here are 10 things I think about that:

1. The friggin press makes up this stuff. If you look around, you’ll find some other guy – I’ve seen it somewhere – who said the Bills had one of the BEST free agent periods. In fact, I think they did okay. Not great, but okay.

2. A lot of what he’s talking about isn’t free agency. They CUT Dockery, he wasn’t a free agent. Stroud wasn’t a free agent. The guy can’t even get the basic facts right.

3. Marcus Stroud – He wasn’t a free agent. I think they promised Marcus they’d redo his deal when they acquired him in a trade last year. He had a good year, he’s a good player, and resigning players is something teams do all the time. What’s wrong with keeping your good players happy and extending their contracts?

4. WR Terrell Owens. Okay, we can argue this all day. I’m still not thrilled with it. I think he’ll be a big plus in the offense, but maybe not. If he is, he’ll be gone in a year, and then they still have a hole. But if last year’s second round pick, James Hardy, develops properly, then having Owens for one year is perfect. So it isn’t a terrible move, it won’t hurt. It just doesn’t build long-term strength.

5. Versatile LB Angelo Crowell. Yes, the guy was a good player. The Bills gave up on him last year when they more or less pleaded with him all off-season to have knee surgery, and he refused. When September came, he said his knee wasn’t well enough to play and had surgery. Stupid move on his part. Bills probably overreacted by putting him on IR (he could have played later in the season), but they decided he wasn’t committed to the team.

6. Derrick Dockery. The Bills cut him. He was a free agent mistake the year before. He played pretty well for a while. Last season he was terrible. Maybe the worst guard in the conference. He had a big contract. So this was in part a cap move. And what’s wrong with admitting your mistakes and cutting your losses? Oh, and our author doesn’t mention the Bills signed Seth McKinney, a part-time guard for the Browns last season. So they brought in someone with some prospects to compete for a the job of a guy who was more or less a total failure.

7. Duke Preston. Duke had been on the team for four years, never really succeeded. Played decently at center for the last half of last season. Bills decided they needed an upgrade. What the Bills did was leave him unsigned until free agency opened. Then the Bills signed the only good free agent center, Hangartner. Once they signed him, Preston was completely expendable. The Bills also let their other center go, same reason. No one has signed the other guy. Green Bay just signed Preston to an unremarkable contract. So why exactly is it a mistake to let someone go that no one else in the league is hot to sign, while you sign a better player on the first day of free agency?

8. Had to trade Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters when they couldn’t re-sign him. Yes, they did. And when you read the better articles on the subject, you’ll understand why. Everyone in the league agrees this guy is among the most, if not the most, talented offensive tackles. He has incredible talent.

Everyone in the league also has serious questions about whether he has the heart to play at the level he’s able to. He clearly cares about the money. He admitted that when he missed blocks last year, his attitude was “well, they’re not paying enough, so I don’t really care that I missed it.” He didn’t know he gave up 10-13 sacks in 13 games last season. You want that guy to be your premier LT?

You know how you can tell the entire league had questions? If the guy was certifiably as good as he thinks, the Bills would have gotten two first round picks for him, or a first and a second. The fact is the Bills couldn’t get more than a late first and a fourth, and no one else was in the bidding. Peters may turn out to be great.

If I had to bet, I’d bet he’ll turn out to be erratic. There’s something about him that makes him a big questionmark.

9. Let solid CB Jabari Greer go and replaced him with Drayton Florence. Total ignorance of the situation. First, when Greer got hurt last year, the Bills inserted last year’s first round pick, Leodis McKelvin, who by the end of the season looked like a lights-out, shut-down corner. Second, since McKelvin is clearly a starter (and Drayton was signed purely as training camp fodder, not to replace Greer), the Bills either had to sign Greer or next season let their other corner, Terence McGee go. It was either Greer or McGee. Greer was going to command pretty big dollars, and they were big dollars this year, not next year. McGee is very good, McKelvin looks like a star, Youboty is back, and the Bills had another good rookie corner last season. They’re set at corner. No brainer.

10. I am no apologist for the Bills. They do a lot of stupid stuff. Peters was mismanaged, despite my doubts about him. But this stuff from Sporting News is nonsense, and anyone who knows the Bills knows that. Problem is, 95% of the readers don’t follow the Bills, so it makes sense to them.

Let’s go BILLS!!!!

Well, it’s done. Jason Peters has been traded to the Eagles for a first and fourth pick this year and a sixth next year. Peters has signed an extension with Eagles.

What do I think? I don’t like it, but mostly I think there are a lot of things I don’t know.

1. I don’t know if the Bills have any idea what they’re doing. The Bills clearly started rebuilding in 2006. By 2008 they had cleaned out everyone who needed to go and plenty others, as well. They had the core they needed, it seemed, to begin to win consistently. Then, in three months, the starting center is gone, the starting left guard is gone and the starting left tackle is gone. Are the Bills rebuilding, again?

2. I don’t know if Jason Peters will ever be a premier left tackle. I know he has the physical tools. I’ve seen him make all the plays that a premier left tackle makes, but there have been plenty of guys with the tools who never starred in the NFL .

3. I don’t know if Jason Peters has the heart to be a star in the NFL. He hasn’t shown it so far. There’s something about him that’s always made me uncomfortable. Part of it is how he leaves games with injuries. Fine, I know guys tweak things and have to go out for a play or two here and there, but it seems like a habit with Jason. He’s missed the end of the past two seasons with injuries. I guess they were real. But the really great players stay on the field. They WANT it.

I saw Jim Kelly get knocked unconscious, fumble, the Bills get a turnover on the next play, and Kelly return to the field to throw a TD on the first play. You could feel it with Jim. I don’t feel it with Jason.

There’s something troubling about a guy who says, essentially, “I’m not going to give you my best until you pay me.” Is Jason Peters Manny Ramirez? For that matter, is he Terrell Owens?

4. I don’t know about his pedigree. This goes to his heart, too. Just about every good pro showed his potential in college. I know, there are exceptions, and maybe Jason is an exception. Coming out of high school, Jason wasn’t a top prospect. Fine, not every star was showing it in high school. Then Jason spent his time in college and he still hadn’t shown enough for anyone to draft him. That raises a real questionmark for me. The guy has these fabulous physical tools and didn’t apply them enough for any team to burn even a seventh round pick on him. That says something about him, something I don’t like.

Compare him to Leodis McKelvin. Leodis must not have shown much coming out of high school, either, becasue none of the big-time schools took a shot at him. So off he goes to Troy. By the end of four years, he was showing it.

There’s just something about Jason that always left me uncomfortable.

5. I don’t know who the Bills studs are. Jason Peters was unquestionably the best young talent on the Bills. Raw physical talent, he’s better than Lee, better than Marshawn, and way better than anyone else. There are only two ways to win in the NFL – collect really outstanding talent or have truly outstanding coaching (or some combination of both). Either way, you have to spend money. The Bills have demonstrated they won’t spend the big dollars for a really good coaching staff – it’s been no-names (with the exception of Chuck Knox) for 50 years. The Bills have to be willing to overspend on really good talent here or there – it’s the only other choice. If you’re going to overspend on anyone, Jason Peters has the talent to have been the one.

6. I don’t know what the Bills coaching staff thought about Peters. They might have had the same concerns that I have. Who wants a guy who doesn’t show up at camp? They might have said to Brandon “don’t spend top dollar for this guy, because we don’t think we can count on him, play after play, game after game, season after season, to dominate.” Frankly, I think the questions about Peters are reflected in the deal the Bills got. A 28th pick and a fourth rounder (a sixth in 2010 is practically worthless) is NOT enough for the an All-Pro left tackle. However, I think the Eagles were saying “we’re going to have to overpay for a guy who’s not really proven himself to be the long-term stud, so we’re not giving you a first this year and a first next year.”

7. I don’t know what the Bills do now. I don’t think Walker is a left tackle. Chambers actually looked pretty good at left tackle at the end of last season, but I assumed the Bills had him slated for left guard. I can’t imagine they’ll start the season with Bell at left tackle. I suppose Chambers at LT and Bell at LG is possible, although some people have said that Bell really has tackle skills and size, not guard skills and size. I don’t know – there are some big guards in the league.

It certainly seems like the Bills now will take the best offensive lineman available with pick #11. His issues notwithstanding, I like Andre Smith based on the little bit I’ve read about him. Jason Smith apparently is the star of the class, but I wouldn’t trade up into the top five to get him, for two reasons: The Bills probably would have to package the 11th and the 28th to get there (I’d rather have three first day picks), and the pricetag for top five players is just to high. If the Bills are willing to spend that kind of money on a draftee, they should have spent it on Jason and kept the 11th pick.

8. I don’t know who’s making the decisions at One Bills Drive. What I do know is that there isn’t one person there with a track record that makes me warm and fuzzy. Not Mr. Wilson, not Brandon, not Jauron. Maybe they’ll surprise me, but I’ve been hoping for pleasant surprises for a couple of years now. I’ve been surprised, sure, but not pleasantly.

9. I don’t know what this does to team morale. It does mean Trent’s going to be peeking over his left shoulder at the pass rush, at least until he develops a little confidence that someone there can keep him from getting maimed. Marshawn may not mind the prospect of sitting out the first few games, so that the players and coaches can figure out how to block people on the left side.

But if I’m Marcus Stroud, I’m thinking “what in the world have I gotten myself into? Our defense isn’t bad, but what’s with the offense? Linemen are coming and going like it’s red-tag day at Wal-Mart, our running back gets suspended, we bring in the league’s most notorious problem child to play wideout. Even the supposed leader of the defense gets tossed in jail.”

10. I don’t know how all this is going to turn out. There’s no way to know now who got the best of the Peters deal. The Bills could be the winners if Peters craps out this season or next or beyond. The Bills could be the winners if Peters continues to show flashes of brilliance without sustained All-Pro play. The Bills could be the losers if Peters becomes the stud he can be. It could be a win-win if the Bills two first-round picks become the heart of a championship team.

I do know this: DIck Jauron’s job is totally on the line in 2009. I thought so after the Owens signing, and I think so now. This is his team – he’s kept the guys he’s wanted, he’s dumped the guys he didn’t. About the only holdover from the pre-Jauron era is the Ball Burglar. The offensive line is now totally his – no starter on the 2009 Bills offensive line was here when Dick took over (unless the Bills surprise me and swap a first-round pick to get Gandy back!). It’s his RB, his QB, his defense, his defensive players. Dick picked these guys, and Dick has to live or die with them.

Like I said, maybe he’ll surprise me.