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Buffalo Bills Review: Week 2

These Bills took the phrase "Squish the Fish" quite literally! The Defense was dominant in Week 2 against Miami.

These Bills took the phrase “Squish the Fish” quite literally! The Defense was dominant in Week 2 against Miami.

Good Stuff

The Bills were dominant on Sunday. I predicted as much, but it was nice to see it actually happen. The defense was stifling, only giving up ten points (and that, aided by questionable calls by the officials) to a team who scored 33 points one week earlier!

Special teams was also dominant: punt block, kick return TD, punts downed inside the 20-yard-line, and 17 points from the kicker! CJ Spiller was named the AFC Special Teams player of the week (Dan Carpenter received that honor in Week One!).

The offense is not half-bad, either, with EJ Manuel leading the league in completion percentage of passes of 20 yards or more in the air. (Yes, leading the league!) Sammy Watkins was wide open much of the day, and looked very worth the trade up to get him. (He was also named Rookie of the Week for Week 2!)

Another good thing about this Bills team is the way they respond. In the Bears game, whenever Chicago would come back to tie up the score, the Bills had an answer. Miami scored two times in the second half to get within six points of the Bills, but both times the Bills answered to extend their lead. (The second time they never looked back.)

This all happened on a day when Ralph Wilson Jr. was immortalized on his Wall of Fame in gold letters, Jim Kelly received a 90-second standing ovation, and every Buffalo football fan was euphoric from the news that a local family (with loads of cash) will be buying the team and keeping them here forever! (Or close to it…)

It was a GOOD week.

Bad Stuff

The Bills were dominant for the whole game, but they still had some trouble scoring in the Red Zone. The plays were there (two passes that could have, should have, gone for scores were missed or dropped). It will happen, but settling for field goals will not work against better offensive teams.

The only other bad might be injuries, but the good news there is that the Bills are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL so far this season. (When was the last time we said that?!) Sammy Watkins looks hurt every time he touches the ball, but he’s still making lots of plays. So it’s not that bad, right?

The Refs deserve honorable mention here with many questionable calls on the Dolphins only scoring drive. But… we won. So who cares?

Newsy Stuff

Ohio-Canton-Football_Hall_of_Fame

The nominees for the 2015 NFL Hall of Fame class were announced this week. More than a hundred names from football’s near and distant past, and several of them have ties to the Buffalo Bills. All-time favorites like Cornelius “Biscuit” Bennett, Darryl Talley, Steve Tasker and Fred Smerlas made the list, as did the late Kent Hull, who does not receive as much credit as perhaps he should for the success of those Bills teams of the 1990s. (Maybe he now will?)

Here are the nominees with Buffalo connections:

  • LB Cornelius Bennett
  • C Kent Hull
  • HC Chuck Knox
  • HC Lou Saban
  • NT Fred Smerlas
  • LB Chris Spielman
  • LB Darryl Talley
  • ST Steve Tasker
  • CB Troy Vincent
  • NT Ted Washington

In other news:

  1. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points over the “apparent favorite” Chargers. Due to their much greater success over the recent past, as well as last week’s win over Seattle (by 9 points) most are picking the visiting Chargers to win over the also-undefeated Buffalo Bills. But Las Vegas had them as 1-point favorites to start the week, and that has only increased all week, to the 2.5-point spread here on Friday night.
  2. The Chargers lost their starting RB Ryan Matthews for a few weeks, and have a list of players who were limited or did not practice this week that include several starters on the offensive line. The Bills on the other hand will be missing only two or three players this week, and have been relatively injury-free so far this season. That’s a welcome change from the past decade, or so, where it seems Buffalo generally has the worst of the injury bug in the whole of the NFL!

Crazy Stuff

Speaking of injuries… how crazy is it that Eric Wood was once thought of as injury-prone, but now we don’t give him a second thought as the rock, the core of the Bills rather solid offensive line? Crazy!

And how about all the hullaballoo regarding the ineptitude of the Bills starting QB before this season. Calls for EJ Manuel‘s head (or at least his position on the roster) were frequently and vociferously shouted wherever they might be heard. But after two weeks of arguably much more than “game management” (see stat above, and his 7.8 yards/attempt) Manuel has almost completely silenced his critics—after just two weeks! Crazy!

Up Next: San Diego Chargers

369px-San_Diego_Chargers_logo.svgThe Chargers just beat the Seahawks. (Yes, those Seahawks.) It took a nearly-perfect game from their offense, but it worked, and they won. Can they do that here? They were 5-3 on the road last year, including many wins in the Eastern US. And they won a playoff game in Cincy. They’re not afraid of the eastern time zone.

The Chargers will definitely be a challenge. Philip Rivers has a greater than two to one touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio over his career, and I believe last year threw 32 TDs to only 11 INTs. That’s impressive. He is definitely no Jay Cutler (who is happy to share the ball with his opponents). But the bottom line from my view of their win last week: they were nearly flawless. Seattle didn’t play badly, San Diego made every play they had a chance to make. That does not happen every week. It really can’t.

This game is important. Later in the year, we might be kicking ourselves if we don’t get this win at home against a team we will likely be battling for a wild card spot. (Unless we win our division of course!)

Buffalo’s defense, at home, with a mistake-free offense… (the Chargers apparently have a very good run defense, so it will be interesting to see what Buffalo’s very good run offense can do against them) the Bills have a great chance of taking advantage of this September game on their home field and finishing with the victory, going 3-0 for the second time since 2011.

(More on the differences between 2011 and 2014 next week, if in fact my prediction is accurate…)

Bills Win: 31-27


This may be a weekly series of very short reviews of the Buffalo Bills 2014 season, game by game. Or it may not. Stay tuned!

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Buffalo Bills Review: Week 1

Fred Jackson Stiff Arm
This may be the start of a weekly series of very short reviews of the Buffalo Bills 2014 season, game by game. Or it may not. Stay tuned!

Good Stuff

The 2014 Buffalo Bills did not impress in their extended preseason preview. EJ Manuel looked mediocre at best, the starting offense couldn’t score, there were rumors of turmoil between the head coach and nearly everyone in the organization, and outsiders questioned whether the defense could withstand offseason losses (Byrd, Alonso, and Pettine).

That’s why the overtime win in Chicago Sunday was even more impressive. We saw good things. EJ Manuel was definitely competent. Not just completions, but looking off defenders. He ran in a score. He threw another. He threw down the field, just missing Sammy Watkins deep down the left sideline. His receivers helped. His offensive line helped, allowing only one sack. The running backs were all as good as we thought they would be.

Best of all, as Kyle Williams said this week, this team was resilient. Bad calls by the referees, mistakes by teammates, letting leads slip away, several unproductive offensive series in a row—none of that daunted this team who came up with big plays in all phases when it mattered. And they won.

Quick honorable mention in the Good Stuff for P Colton Schmidt. Who? Exactly! This “new guy” came in and had a net average of 43.2 yards/punt on the day, downed 4 inside the 20. He was amazing, actually. (Second honorable mentions go to the rest of the special teams: big FGs by Dan “Nailed It” Carpenter, many booming kickoffs by Jordan Gay, and a fantastic (and fun) DOUBLE tackle (took out two guys!) by Marcus Easley.)

Bad Stuff

Honestly (and strangely) there was not much “bad stuff”. You could say EJ’s one interception, but they still won the game. Fred Jackson muffed a punt, but picked it right back up. The defense allowed 41% conversion on third downs—Chicago got lots of first downs, and plenty of yards—but, the Bills won the game.

One thing that qualified as “Bad” in this game was the calls be the refs. Many PIs that should have been non-calls. And the strangest one of all was the holding penalty that was called back. Huh? Yes. That’s what Kyle Williams said. (He had a lot to say!) The ref threw the flag (at Williams’ back) and then they decided, nah… let’s not call it. That gave the Bears life, and sent the game to OT. Yikes.

Kim & Terry Pegula - Bills and Sabres Owners

Newsy Stuff

You already know the news this week! The Bills have a new owner! Her name is Kim Pegula! Well, OK, it’s Kim & Terry Pegula. I keep reading that Kim will be more than a little involved in the business operation of the team (maybe the primary person?) so, that’s interesting. The Pegulas are most beloved by Buffalo sports fans for their swooping in and purchasing the Buffalo Sabres two years ago, and resuscitating that team. Billions of dollars, a deep, lifetime love of Buffalo sports, and a commitment to win the Stanley Cup (and now the Lombardi Trophy) will do that to a sports fan base!

In other news: the Bills were ranked near the bottom of most Power Rankings prior to Week 1, but after their road win in Chicago (and looking pretty decent as they did the winning) they have moved up in most polls to the high teens. Not a bad jump! Let’s see what happens after week 2 and the home opener against Miami!

Crazy Stuff

When Terry Pegula, life-long Sabres fan, became the owner of that same team, he began bringing in famous names from the team’s past to help run the organization. Former coach, Ted Nolan, is back coaching the team. Beloved Hall of Fame center, Pat Lafontaine, was brought in to run hockey operations.

Wouldn’t it be crazy if… he did the same thing with the Bills?

Jim Kelly—as he regains his health—is given a more active role with the franchise. Bill Polian is brought back to build another dynasty. Players like Jim Haslett, Fred Smerlas, and Darryl Talley bring some of their fire back the Bills on the sidelines and elsewhere.

It’s not actually that crazy…

Up Next: Miami Dolphins (Home Opener!)

dolphins-logoOK, so we have a new owner… check. We have a greatly revamped stadium, hosting its first regular season game and crowd… check. We have perhaps the all-time favorite Bill scheduled to make his first appearance at a game since being declared cancer-free (for the second time), maybe even leading the team onto the field… check!

The Bills will also be honoring deceased former owner, Ralph Wilson, at the game, and, oh yeah… they’re pretty pumped up from that solid win last week on the road!

The Dolphins don’t stand a chance!

The Bills beat the Fins twice last year, both times with third-string QB, Thad Lewis. For some reason, Buffalo’s defense always seems to easily handle Miami QB, Ryan Tannehill. With all the emotion and enthusiasm and excitement coursing through the veins of the Bills defense in the home opener Sunday, I expect lots of pressure, several sacks, and a few takeaways. The Bills running game always excels against Miami, too, and with nearly 200 yards against the Bears last week, they are primed for another great showing against the Dolphins this weekend.

Really. It shouldn’t even be close.

Buffalo Wins: 34-7

Go Bills!

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The 2014 Buffalo Bills Season Preview

cjspiller

The Bills say, “It’s Our Time”—but is it? Will #14 (4th round draft pick, Sammy Watkins) help end the 14-year playoff drought in 2014?

These questions will be answered in a few months. Some say they are already answered. (Those people need a hug.)

A Review: 2013

To correctly set up the game-by-game predictions below, it seems appropriate to review last year’s predictions. Overall, my predictions were a respectable 9-7. Nine were correct, seven were wrong.

The breakdown is interesting. First, I was two for nine in the first half, and then rattled off seven straight correct picks in the last seven weeks. Impressive! (Except for that first part…)

Even more interesting to me is that I was slightly better at predicting the Bills’ losses than wins. (I suppose that is greatly aided by the Bills giving me ten losses in sixteen games to “get right”. Ugh…)

Well, let’s see if this year will be any better.

2014 season preview

@ Chicago – L (0-1)

Not the way you want to start a season. Especially with rumors of unrest and locker room turmoil, and new ownership on its way, and the angst surrounding the trade up for Sammy Watkins. But the Bears have a really good offense. Two great receivers. A QB who can throw TDs—but he’s also really amazing at throwing the ball to the other team, too. Buffalo’s strongest unit is their defense, which seems to have improved in 2014, despite “losing” Jairus Byrd (they let him go) and the injury to Kiki Alonso. The Bills’ offense is not too shabby, either, and Chicago’s defense has been suspect. Expect lots of points in this game; scores in the mid-to-high 20s for both teams, and higher. But I think the Bears get the win on the last drive or last play.

Miami – W (1-1)

Well, there’s nothing like a Miami home opener to right the ship! It’s always fun when Miami comes to Buffalo in December, but the home opener against the Fins is probably the second best choice. Miami does have some talent (Mike Wallace, Lamar Miller, Knowshon Moreno, and a very solid defense) but Buffalo, at home, in the opener… the Bills should shine, all the way to a 10-point (or more) victory.

San Diego – W (2-1)

This one is hard to pick before I see the Chargers play. I like San Diego this year as one of the better teams in the AFC. The good news for the Bills is, the AFC is fairly weak this year. The Chargers can score points, but maybe not against the Bills rock-solid defense. Pressure, takeaways, stopping the run—all may lead to a Bills victory. Not to mention the home crowd. Pumped up after the division win the week prior, I expect the Bills can outlast the Chargers who travel across the country—after playing the defending Champion Seahawks the week before—to play in Orchard Park.

@ Houston – W (3-1)

This one is also hard to pick. Best part of this game for Bills fans will be facing former starting QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who (along with his beard) remains a Bills fan favorite. The Texans have some great pieces on offense and defense. But, they were the worst team in the league last year. Will Fitz be able to get the ball to their offensive weapons? Will the Bills offense be able to handle Watt and Jadeveon Clowney (and the rest!)? I really don’t know. My gut says Fitz throws a crucial pick late in this game, and the Bills eke out the victory. I’m going with my gut.

@ Detroit – L (3-2)

In the offseason, the Bills lost their stellar defensive coordinator, Mike Pettine, but shortly after they gained former Lions HC Jim Schwartz. The defense does not seem to have missed a beat. Schwartz knows defense, and of course, he knows the Lions. With that advantage, there is a chance the Bills can sneak out of Detroit with the win, but I think the Bills find a way to lose this road game: EJ Manuel is still a very young QB, an ill-timed fumble, inability to contain Calvin Johnson… whatever it ends up being, the Bills lose a close game and fall to 3-2.

New England – W (4-2)

Yes. You read the right: win. The Bills have been so close for so long, including last year’s first game in Buffalo against the Pats. This year, this game: Bills win. Brandon Spikes said it would happen, so… Who knows what each team will look like by week seven (injuries, etc) but the Bills should want this game, at their home stadium, and I think they overpower the Patriots on offense and defense. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, so he can always reverse any amount of great Bills effort, but on this October day in 2014, the Bills get the much-needed victory.

Minnesota – W (5-2)

Adrian Peterson is coming to town. If the Bills run defense has not been tested yet (but it will have been) this will be a great test. The Bills play better at home. They just do. So this day would likely see a fired-up defense, and an adequate offense, and against a Minnesota team that puts all of its hopes on its (amazing) running back. If they can’t stop AP, then they could lose. (But they could still win.) If they can then this game goes easily to Buffalo at home.

@ NY Jets – L (5-3)

One of the Bills worst games last season was in New Jersey against the Jets. This year they face the Jets for the first time on the road, one week before their bye. At 5-2, they’re probably really happy with the way the season has gone… until this day. Rex Ryan and his ample defense find ways to confound the Bills offense more than the Bills defense will be able to compensate for, giving the Jets the win. If it’s really ugly, a big win.

BYE

No loss here! (No win, either.)

Kansas City – W (6-3)

This game, in 2013, KC @ Buffalo, did not end the way it “should” have. The Bills played really well, had a big lead, with their third-string quarterback, until that QB threw an INT at the goal line that was returned the other way for a long TD, and then fumbled away the ball the next drive. That’s not likely to happen this year. I know KC has weapons. But I really think they are overrated, and it showed last year as the Bills should have/could have beaten them. That happens this year as they can not overcome our defense, nor stop our offense. Bills win big.

@ Miami – W (7-3)

This game will be tough. Miami will need the win. They are home. The Bills are traveling. But the Bills are better. They have more offensive weapons. They have as good a defense as the Dolphins. Dan Carpenter kicks several field goals to defeat his former team for the second time in 2014: Bills get another road win! Wow!

NJ Jets – W (8-3)

After losing to the Jets on the road, the Bills will need to win this rematch at their own place. It’s getting late in the year, and division wins are really important. Last year, EJ Manuel showed why the Bills picked him over Geno Smith when he looked great against the Jets, and Smith had a QB rating in the single digits, looking awful. The Bills play well at home, and they get a hard-fought, but “easy” victory over the Jets. (Spiller, Jackson, Brown, and Dixon pile up over 200 yards rushing in this game, too.) And the Bills are 8-3?!?!

Cleveland – W (9-3)

One of the games the Bills really, really should have won last year was against Cleveland on a Thursday night. They had the game won until EJ Manuel was injured, then everything fell apart. Assuming a full roster of players, the Bills will avenge that loss and then some. The Bills are just far superior to the Browns. Sorry, Coach Pettine, your return to Buffalo will not be pretty. Bills by thirty. (Or so…)

@ Denver – L (9-4)

The Bills begin their descent to reality with a road game against the Denver Manning. Peyton will find a way to overcome this defense, and the Bills, while giving their best against last year’s AFC Champs, will likely go home with a loss here. This begins a stretch of three road games in four weeks.

Green Bay – L (9-5)

Green Bay is good. Buffalo at home in December is hard to beat. One of those things will have to give in this last home game of 2014, and I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will find a way to win this game in Buffalo. They know how to play in cold weather, so that won’t be an issue. The Bills will likely put up a good fight, but the Pack win, handing Buffalo a second-straight loss.

@ Oakland – L (9-6)

If the Bills are as good as their previously 9-3 record would suggest, they need to find a way to win this game. This is the “winnable” game in their last quarter of the schedule. But, the Raiders are improved, and at home, facing the Eastern time zone Bills, Buffalo gets another loss. Third straight. Might the playoffs be in jeopardy?

@ New England – L (9-7)

The Bills have to win this game. They have NEVER won in Gillette Stadium. Ever. Really! Spikes predicted two wins against his former team for his current team in 2014, but can they really do it? Looking at New England’s schedule, I think they will need this game as much as Buffalo. (I think they might need it to salvage a winning season, coming into the game at 8-7.) Tom Brady gets one last win over the Bills, and the Bills will have to wait till 2015 to beat New England in their house.


Funny. I predicted a 9-7 record for Buffalo last season, too. That didn’t turn out so well. Maybe this is the year the Bills actually do play up to their potential?

It begins today! Buffalo @ Chicago at 1pm. Go Bills!

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[Football Friday] Stranger Things Have Happened…

ralph-wilson-stadium

The big news this Football Friday is that the Buffalo Bills game in Orchard Park this Sunday versus the Cincinnati Bengalswill be on TV!

There were over 7,000 tickets left at the start of this week, and with the current state of panic and fear—and the ever-present dread, hopelessness, and dismay—amongst Bills fans, there was little chance of this game selling out. (And of course, a sell-out is required for local television stations to be allowed to broadcast the game. “Local” being defined by the NFL as every city within about 200 miles of Ralph Wilson Stadium!)

Thanks to a last minute gift from Ralph Wilson, Jr. the nonagenarian owner of the Bills, local fans will be able to watch the game from their homes.

But, after losing to THE BROWNS last week on national TV—by thirteen points!!!—and losing their starting QB, why on God’s green earth would anyone want to see this game, anyway?

Read on, faithful fan!

All Hope Is Lost

ej-manuelLast week, we Bills fans had to endure the sight of our first-round, wonder kid, phenom rookie QB writhing on the sideline, clutching his knee. (As well as a Browns defender standing over him, pumping his fist in victory… despite the fact that EJ Manuel had just converted a third down with his run, setting up the Bills’ go-ahead touchdown mid-to-late third quarter… hmm…) Hearts sank, stomach knots twisted, throats felt nervous lumps rise… and basically all hope was lost. Throw the season in the toilet, flush, and prep for next year’s draft, fellas!

After watching then-backup quarterback, Jeff Tuel (another rookie QB) look quite pedestrian (and that’s being kind) most Bills fans could agree that there wasn’t much to be cheery about as a Bills fan.

But a more objective, rational review of the game in Cleveland would show the following:

  • Even with lots of injuries still, including losing Stevie Johnson somewhere in the second quarter, the Bills had managed to endure crazy-huge punt returns—one for a long TD—by the Browns, which gave them a 17-10 half-time lead, and take a third-quarter lead of their own, 24-17.
  • The Bills defense (still depleted by injuries) held the Browns’ running game in check, and really their offense, despite bad field position thanks to those punt returns.
  • Even the NFL Network announcers were pretty much handing the game to the Bills by the third quarter, with Mike Mayock commenting repeatedly that the Bills were just, “tightening the noose” with each successive first down.

Credit the Browns with taking advantage of Aaron Williams at cornerback—and a great catch by Josh Gordon on the game-tying score, bobbling, and then pulling it in while managing to get both feet down in the end zone.

EJ going down (for two to eight weeks, say his doctors) the Bills had to find more QB help. There was talk of recently-released Josh Freeman, but he chose Minnesota. There was more talk of Pat White (really??) and a few other cast-offs. But the Bills chose to bring Thaddeus Lewis off the practice squad and place him at the front of the bus, starting the game this week against Cincinnati!

What is happening around here?!

With the large list of injured (important) players, now larger and bearing the name E. J. Manuel, on top of the more important 2-3 overall record that they now hold, and a practice squad QB as our starter (and Jeff Tuel as his backup!) … it sure did seem as though all hope was lost.

All Hope is NOT Lost!

BUT… (a very important but!)

The Bills are getting nearly EVERYONE back. Jairus Byrd will finally be on the field, practicing fully this week. Even Stephon Gilmore is likely to get some playing time this weekend. Ron Brooks, Marquise Goodwin, and Doug Legursky are all scheduled to return this week. Also, don’t forget that a Thursday game means ten days off. Ten days means healthier players, including CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, and maybe even Stevie Johnson. (Johnson may miss this game due to a death in his family this week, as well as a back injury that has not fully healed.)

So really, other than players on injured reserve, the only player who is definitely out this weekend is EJ Manuel. The rest of that large list that the Bills have sported each week so far in 2013 … might be completely eliminated! Everyone playing!

This is really good news for us Bills fans. (And, um… the Bills!)

A Welcome Sight
moorman-qbMaybe the BEST news this week for the Bills was the release of 2nd year punter, Shawn Powell, and the re-signing of free agent punter, BRIAN MOORMAN!!! Many Bills fans are ecstatic to see the return of #8. (And yes, Jeff Tuel relinquished his number to the player most Bills fans know as #8, taking #7 for his own jersey number.)

With all the trouble at QB, maybe Brian Moorman will step in if there’s an injury. He’s always exciting, that’s for sure. And usually pretty fired up! Should get a big, friendly welcome from the crowd at The Ralph this Sunday when he comes out on the field. The Bills might do well to introduce the special teams starters before the game, just to pump up the crowd a bit more!

Welcome back, Mr. Moorman!

Prediction

I’m kinda worried about making this prediction. I’m 0-3 so far. I predicted a loss, and they won. I predicted two wins, and they lost. Yikes!

Well… as I see it… the Bengals offense is not very good. They only got SIX points against the Cleveland Browns! We posted 24, and likely would have scored more. They do have AJ Green (a GREAT wide receiver) but we are getting all of our corners back (hopefully) and we apparently have a pretty decent D-coordinator in Mike Pettine!

The Bengals defense is a different story. They are good. But the Bills will have home field advantage, which should actually help a bit, and so far this year, the Bills have done well, even against pretty decent defenses (maybe especially Baltimore, but really every team they have played has a better-than-average defense! The Jets, Panthers, and Browns are #2, #3, and #4 after five weeks! Oh my!) The Bengals currently rank eighth overall, and tenth overall against the run—probably the Bills offensive strength.

The thing is, Thad Lewis is not bad. He’s not great, and is appropriately a backup QB, but he most likely won’t lose the game for the Bills. So, with a nearly-100% healthy defense, a slightly-healthier offense, a home game against an opponent that doesn’t do that well offensively (usually) …

Final score: 21-16, Buffalo.

I know I’m probably guaranteeing a loss with that prediction, but… well, that’s what I think will happen! Plenty of takeaways (Kiko Alonso! Jairus Byrd?), good defense, and an offense that moves the ball well enough to win.

(Did you know that the Bills are averaging 22.4 points per game so far this year, with scores of 21, 24, 20, 23, 24 in their five games? Not bad.)

So … go Bills! Enjoy your football weekend!


UPDATE: Right after this published, the Bills announced that Ron Brooks will not play this weekend. (He is listed as “Out”, along with EJ Manuel.) Stevie Johnson and Stephon Gilmore are “Questionable” and being called “game-time decisions”.

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[Football Friday] Wait… What Day Is It?

Today is actually Thursday, but since the Buffalo Bills play their weekend game tonight, my Football Friday post—a preview of the next game—will publish on a Thursday!

It’s very confusing…

Hopefully the BILLS will not be as confused! Though, as I heard pointed out this week, the Thursday Night Games so far this season have been very sloppy, hard-to-watch football games. The short week of practice, and less time to recover from any injuries are probably two of the main factors contributing to a lesser version of NFL football.

Perhaps tonight the two young, up-and-coming franchises will break from that pattern?

And… perhaps not.

The Good Stuff

There is actually a bunch to like from both of these teams coming off their last games. (OK, not the Bills game in New Jersey against the Jets. There’s hardly anything to like about that one!) But other than that game, the Browns have won two in a row after their quarterback change. Brian Hoyer is 2-0 as the starter, and even though their season starter, Brandon Weeden is healthy again, Hoyer will play in this next game against the Bills, too.

fred-jackson-bills-ravens

The Bills are fresh off their win at home against last year’s Super Bowl Champions, the Baltimore Ravens. Impressive! And more than just because of their title. The Ravens were #4 in the league in run defense, and the Bills ran for over 200 yards against them! The Bills defense had four sacks and five INTs on Super Bowl MVP, Joe Flacco. Very impressive!

And don’t forget their two games prior to the NY Jets debacle were a comeback win against a pretty good Carolina Panthers team (they beat the Giants 38-0 the week after losing to Buffalo) and leading the New England Patriots until the very last minute, when they took the lead on a late field goal.

Other than the game against the Jets, EJ Manuel has looked at least reliable, and even exciting. I’d say especially the game against Carolina—the long, comeback, last-minute drive for the go-ahead touchdown—but he also hit some throws last week for scores, including one that didn’t count (but should have!) near the end of the game. Also, Manuel has greatly limited any mistakes, and the Bills’ future does look promising with him at the helm!

INJURY UPDATE!
Bills FS Jairus Byrddead to many Bills fans, thanks to his non-chalant, flippant attitude in most (all?) interviews since signing with the team in the pre-season—fully participated in practice earlier this week. That’s a really good sign that he might indeed return … even as early as this week! Other Bills are greatly on the mend as well, including super-speedy rookie WR Marquise Goodwin, who will probably be back for the Bills’ next game, Sunday Oct. 13th, at home against the Bengals.

The Scary Stuff

Let’s not forget what I highlighted last week: INJURIES ABOUND!

That hasn’t really changed, outside of the update directly above. But now, players like CJ Spiller can be added to the not-likely-to-be-seen-on-the-field-in-any-meaningful-way list. (If there isn’t such a list, there should be!) Fred Jackson is also hurt, but nearly guarantees he’ll be out there. Thirteen players are officially listed on the Week 5 injury report at BuffaloBills.com, and four of those are definitely out.

STATS DON’T LIE… USUALLY
Last week the Bills were able to overcome a top-notch run defense. Well, way more than “overcome”. They put up over 200 yards. So how about this week? Tonight, the Bills take on the #1 rush defense in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns. Can the Bills—perhaps minus their top two running backs, due to injuries—work similar magic this week? Not likely. The Browns defense is younger, faster, and crazier (in my opinion).

One strength the Browns possess that the Ravens do not necessarily is their “shut down” corner, Joe Hayden. He should effectively remove whichever receiver they put him on. (He shut down a pretty great receiver, AJ Green of the Bengals, last week.) The good news for the Bills is, they have many more than just one receiver!

Speaking of receivers, the Browns have a TE (Jordan Cameron) who has been somewhat dominant through the first quarter of the 2013 season. I believe he has five touchdown receptions now, including a game where he posted three? Those are Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez numbers. The Bills are faster this year, and prepared to cover guys (or attempt to) like Gronk … Cameron will be a good test of that.

Prediction

So far, in my illustrious, two-part, Football Friday predictions I am an astounding… 0 for 2. 🙂 The game I thought the Bills would win, they lost. When I thought they were just too injury-depleted to compete, they won, and it seemed rather “easily”.

So… I’m a little afraid to proceed here, as a Bills fan, but …

With a defense that leads the NFL in interceptions, going up against a relative no-name QB in Brian Hoyer, a “vintage” RB, former Bill, Willis McGahee, and… who? at receiver? (Other than their TE, Cameron) …

AND, with an offense that, even injured, has a multiplicity of potent targets …

BUT, it is a road game, on national television…

Still, I must stick with my gut and say that, in a defensive struggle, the Bills will pull out the (much-needed) road victory:

Final score: 19-12, Buffalo.

(Yes, lots of field goals. Excited now?) 🙂

The Bills will benefit greatly by beating a team that is similarly (but lesser) talented than they are, on the road, and picking up a conference win, against a team that their division rival, Miami, has already beaten. (Record against common opponents is a tie-breaker later on, should one be needed…)

We’ll see tonight if this team of youngsters is up to the task!

Go Bills!

Categories
Sports

[Football Friday] Mounting Injuries, Mounting Losses?

Bills DE Alex Carrington injured against the NY Jets

NFL football is rough. (That’s probably obvious.)

And somehow, it’s always rougher to the Buffalo Bills!

I remember just a few years ago when there were seventeen (or more?) players on the season-ending Injured Reserve (IR) list! That’s a third of an NFL roster! Yikes!

This year is starting off no better. Look at this injury report from Thursday afternoon:

OUT
CB Ron Brooks – foot
*CB Stephon Gilmore – wrist
*K Dustin Hopkins – groin
WR Marquise Goodwin – hand
(DE Alex Carrington – placed on IR this week)

QUESTIONABLE
*S Jairus Byrd – foot
*CB Leodis McKelvin – hamstring

PROBABLE
*DL Marcell Dareus – ankle
*DL Mario Williams – ankle
*DL Kyle Williams – Achilles
*WR Stevie Johnson – hamstring
G/C Doug Legursky – knee
*RB C.J. Spiller – thigh
*OL Kraig Urbik – knee

legursky-injury

I put an asterisk next to each of the guys who are starters. And the other guys are players who would be in there for many snaps.

Again… Yikes!!!

Clash WITH the Titans

Buffalo Bills Schedule - Weeks 4-9As if the injuries weren’t enough by themselves… have you seen the Bills’ schedule?

Currently they are at 1-2 (which could easily be 0-3!) and they are about to take on six teams in a row whose combined record is an astounding 15-3… and that’s because Cleveland is in there! (And they beat a reasonably-tough Minnesota Vikings team last weekend, after nearly defeating Baltimore the week prior!)

There are two 2-1 teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati), and THREE teams with perfect, 3-0 records! (Miami, New Orleans, and Kansas City—the first two are road games!) Holy. Moly.

The next two games after that are at Pittsburgh (no easy task, even if they do have a losing record this year) and home again to face the New York Jets. That did not go so well the first time …

Even with all of those players on the injury list above, those games would be tough. But without them?

Buckle up, Bills fans. This could get bumpy!

Oh No! Our QB is on FIRE!

ejOne week, you’re the savior of the world, next week… not so much.

EJ Manuel has fallen from grace with many Bills fans, rightly wearied by thirteen seasons of quarterbacking woes. (OK, not really. There was still a little Flutie in there (ha! “little”) and Bledsoe had that one good year…

Last week EJ was sacked EIGHT times, and for some strange reason he kept throwing balls 5 or 6 yards out of bounds? (EJ, that’s a good way to avoid INTs, but you also avoid the completions.) He looked skittish, scared, scurried, and all things of that sort. To be fair, the offensive line and the run game sort of set him up to feel (and act) that way. The blame can not all be placed on the quarterback.

That said, last Sunday, it was pretty obvious that he is a rookie.

He’s looked good at The Ralph. That’s where they play this Sunday. Against the Super Bowl Champion, Baltimore Ravens. Who still have a good defense. (Minus Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and … somebody else.)

Will EJ Manuel still look like he’s on fire in week four? OR, will be be “on fire”, besting his yards, touchdowns, and any other marks he’s set so far in his fledgling career?

Prediction…

Well, I missed last week’s prediction. Pretty badly, actually. Greatly underestimating the somewhat no-name Jets’ defense, my 27-13 Buffalo win turned out to be a 27-20 LOSS. Stinky.

This week, I shall be more conservative. And honestly, I hope that I am wrong two weeks in a row.

But I won’t be.

The Ravens are also coming into Orchard Park injured, but they still have their highly-paid quarterback. I have a hard time believing that our fourth-string and on down the depth chart cornerbacks (and backup safety, I might add) will be able to stop Joe Flacco and whomever he chooses to throw to.

Toss in the (incredibly) porous Bills run defense facing the likely return of Ray Rice, and…

Baltimore should win this one somewhat easily.

Final score: 30-20, Baltimore.

I think one thing we will find out this week in Buffalo is the skill, talent, and ability of the rookie coaches (as well as the rookie quarterback). Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett will need to free up CJ Spiller and EJ Manuel somehow, while Mike Pettine will have to figure out a way to run his crazy (and good) defensive scheme with fourth-stringers! I do hope they can get it done. We’re about to find out!

Go Bills!

Enjoy your football weekend!

Categories
Sports

[Football Friday] On The Road

alex-at-a-football-game

It’s Friday, and that means another weekend of football is here! A week ago, Alex and I attended a high school football game here in our town. First time ever, actually! It was fun… except for the constant rain, on a cold night, and the college-ready, MJD-bodied running back on the other team… Still, it really was quite fun! We look forward to doing it again soon.

But, as you are likely well aware, this is a Buffalo Bills household. High school football is fun—I enjoyed playing for my high school several decades ago—and every once in a while we’ll tune in a Michigan State football game (and on rare occasions, a different college game) … BUT…

It’s pretty much Buffalo Bills, and NFL football around here.

(Oh, and for the next couple weeks, our football weekends culminate with our own Monday Night (flag) Football games! Those are great fun, too!)

On The Road

So this week, the very promising, young Bills get to play their first game away from The Ralph.

In two games at home, they have performed admirable, and at times, messily. Penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, missed passes, and in Week One, a CJ Spiller who forgot he was good. That has led to a 1-1 record, thanks to EJ Manuel and company pulling it together on the final drive. And also, thanks to a defense that looks… impressive. Even missing two of its best players: CB Stephon Gilmore and FS Jairus Byrd.

Will that continue on the road? How much does the raucous crowd in Orchard Park aid this team? Can this young team with a rookie QB, and a rookie Head Coach, have the same—or better—success on the road???

We’re about to find out!

The Opponent: New York Jets

The Jets are favored by 2.5 points. That actually means that Vegas thinks the Bills will win the game. (Home teams are given at least three points, just for hosting the game.) The line makes sense, based on their records through the first two weeks: both teams at 1-1, both wins being last minute, come from behind wins. (The Bills loss to the Patriots was much closer than the Jets loss to the same team, though, as the Jets were never really in that game, despite the appearance on the score board.)

Such a tough game to figure out. It would seem that the Bills have the edge in talent, and they have performed overall much better than their division counterparts. But both teams are young. The Jets have an established, veteran (mostly respected) head coach… but the Bills have the Jets’ former Defensive Coordinator! Ha!

Really, should be an interesting matchup. Can’t wait to see it!

Prediction…

Buffalo Bills QB, E.J. ManuelI really think the Bills defense is improved. Six sacks last week. The backup corner backs are playing MUCH better than anticipated. Rookie LB Kiko Alonso was overshadowed last week by fellow rookie, EJ Manuel’s last minute drive to win the game. (And Stevie Johnson FINALLY catching the big pass!) Alonso is pretty great so far, actually. He ended the game by sacking Cam Newton, when they still had a (very small) chance to win that game. He also had an interception early in the game.

Look for Mike Pettine’s defense to continue improving, and confuse Jets QB Geno Smith, and shut down whomever else they have on their offense. (Who do they have?)

And on offense … with a steady young, unflappable QB, a really talented group of wide receivers, and um… CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson? If they don’t hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers, this should be a comfortable win for the Buffalo Bills.

Final score: 27-13 Buffalo.

Hooray! 🙂

The Bills, if they really are improved, and “heading the the right direction”—as most Bills fans think they are—really need to win this game. It’s against a division opponent, that has befuddled and annoyed them for years.

This Sunday we could start to see that turning around.

Go Bills!

Enjoy your football weekend!

Categories
Sports

The 2013 Buffalo Bills Season: A Prediction

I am in Bills mode today, and so, I’ve decided to publish my VERY EARLY predictions for the Buffalo Bills 2013 season. Take it for what it’s worth, from a person who follows the daily goings on of this franchise very closely, and also (1) has a Twitter account under the name GregTheBillsFan, and (2) is also an admitted optimist.

(Obviously this is all based on few-to-no major injuries, too.)

Buffalo Bills 2013

Buffalo Bills 2013 Season:
Week by Week Predictions

New England – W (1-0)

Week one. I can’t wait for week one! Brady looks insanely great, still, again… always! It doesn’t matter who he’s throwing to. BUT, they’ve lost Welker (a Bills killer) and won’t have Gronk, nor obviously Hernandez. Brady makes up for just about anything else lacking on offense, but the true strength of the 2013 Bills is actually looking more and more like it will be the Mike Pettine defense. That may sound strange as the Bills’ defense was beyond porous last year. They were awful! However, if our D can pressure Brady enough that our 80-plays-per-game offense can score ~24-30 points… there’s a chance this one goes our way. Certainly the Bills are putting a LOT of effort into getting this particular win, at home, to start the season. We’ll see if they can do it.

Carolina – W (2-0)

Mostly guessing here. (Even more than the rest of these guesses!) I think the Bills gain confidence from the BIG week one win over the hated Patriots, and (I think) they are better than Carolina, and at home… Bills win. EJ Manuel impresses, looking better than Cam Newton.

@ NY Jets – W (3-0)

Ha! The Jest! Um… do I need to explain why the Bills will win this one, AND the Nov 17 game at The Ralph? No. I do not.

Baltimore – L (3-1)

The entire region is super-energized by this completely different Bills team. Aggressive, hard-hitting defense. Explosive, point-scoring, high-paced offense. THREE and OH?!? And then reality settles in as the Super Bowl champs come to town and methodically earn themselves a relatively easy win. (By a TD or so.)

@ Cleveland – W (4-1)

Thankfully, the Bills head to Cleveland after the sobering reminder that a perfect season is nowhere within their reach. Though Cleveland has some interesting young talent, the Bills had no problem there last year, and should have even less of a problem this year.

Cincinnati – W (5-1)

This is a tough one. In the recent past, the Bills have always seemed to be able to beat Cincinnati. The exception being the last time they played, losing 23-20 in a game that they truly should have won. (Typical Fitzpatrick/Old Bills blundering.) Before that, the Bills had won ten consecutive meetings between the clubs. (The Bengals last beating them in November 1988! On their way to the Super Bowl.) SO… history would suggest that the Bills, at home, stand a good chance of winning this one. It should be a VERY interesting defensive game, actually. Both teams should have better-than-average defenses … AJ Green vs Gilmore and Byrd. CJ Spiller and Stevie Johnson vs the Bengals D… IF they are the team they seem to be shaping up to be, the Bills eke out a win at home.

@ Miami – L (5-2)

Time for more reality setting in. Traveling to Miami … big game for the also-revamped Dolphins since their visiting division rival has a nice jump on the season at 5-1. Bills either out-matched (only defensively) or overconfident, lose in a game they wish they could forget.

@ New Orleans – L (5-3)

NO! NOT AGAIN!!! The Bills head to New Orleans (Coach Marrone‘s old stomping grounds) to face Sean Payton‘s Saints, and though they score 30 points or more, they can’t keep up with New Orleans’ offense at home. Two losses in a row, and now three out of four… the city of Buffalo is in a panic!!!!

Kansas City – W (6-3)

Thankfully… the Bills come back to the comfy confines of The Ralph, and get to play a game against the Chiefs! Another opponent the 2012 team had no trouble with. The 2013 team will, again, have less trouble. Easy, confidence-rebuilding win.

@ Pittsburgh – L (6-4)

How not nice of the NFL schedulers. They keep throwing these really tough-to-beat teams in, JUST when the Bills regain their confidence!! Manuel has been compared (by GM Doug Whaley, formerly of the Steelers organization) to one Ben Roethlisberger. But the real Big Ben will likely wear down this much-improved Bills D… and Polamalu and company will remind Manuel that, well, he’s still just a rookie. Bills lose. Again.

NY Jets – W (7-4)

The schedulers are not completely heartless, however. Just before a bye week, their pride again wounded by their current 3-4, up-and-down skid, the Bills wear large grins as the incompetent NY J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets! come to town for another thrashing. Bills get their biggest win of the season as Mike Pettine completely confounds poor little Marky Sanchez and his offensive offense.

BYE

No loss here! Good news! Good news!!!!
(You have to say that like Roscoe P. Coletrain…)

Atlanta – L (7-5)

Atlanta is good. Really good. The Bills are enjoying their crazy, much-improved, way-over-500 record after their week off… glad to be hosting a really good team. Home game, in December—but this one is the Toronto game. Played in Canada. In a dome. Still, the place is rockin’. Already a 4pm, nationally shown game, might even get flexed? (Moved to Sunday or Monday night?) BUT… Atlanta is too good for this team of youngsters. Plus, they are coming off a ten-day break, too, having last played the previous Thursday (Thanksgiving Night). Falcons find a way to win, in a really exciting game. Bills drop another, to go 7-5.

@ Tampa Bay – L (7-6)

Buffalo travels south again, and has a similar result. The Bucs are hard to predict, but have enough talent to hold off this Bills team in their own stadium. Rian Lindell kicks the game-winning FG, but feels bad about it, because he’s such a nice guy. Bills lose again… their hopes are beginning to crumble. 🙁

@ Jacksonville – W (8-6)

BUT THEN … they get to play the JAGUARS!!! Another confidence-boosting game. (It’s nice to have the last-place schedule sometimes!) Bills defeat former teammate Paul Posluzsnzy and friends. Fairly easily.

Miami – W (9-6)

Having already lost to Miami in their previous meeting, the Bills know that Miami, in Buffalo, in December… they can’t lose this game. The RBs put up 250 yards on this really good Miami D, and the Bills win by 10 points or more, convincing some that the playoff drought may indeed end THIS year! Especially with New England faltering, if ever so slightly.

@ New England – L (9-7)

And in an appropriate ending to this upstart season, for a reenergized franchise … the Bills travel to Foxboro to face their arch-rival, the Patriots. The Bills have never (I said NEVER) won in Foxboro. Never. Ever! They have come so close. Many times. But have never won there. To make the playoffs, they will almost certainly need to win this game. But, unless Tom Brady is injured… I think the Patriots remind the Bills that they’re not quite done just yet. The MUCH-more-fun-to-watch (and much better?) Buffalo Bills are sent home after a hard-fought, exciting last game of the year… losing to the New England Patriots, finishing with a 9-7 record.


Of course, all of this is clearly just speculation. First, as I said at the top, the Bills need to not have any major injuries—certainly no season-ending injuries to key players—which has actually been one of their problems over this 13-year playoff drought.

And, obviously, I can’t even know this team… so what about all the others? Just guessing as to how they are going to play. (Except for the Jets. We know for certain that they will be horrible.) 😉

But, for now, in August … that’s my prediction for the 2013 Buffalo Bills season.

Guess they don’t even have to play the games now!

Go Bills!

Categories
Sports

The Very Intriguing Buffalo Bills

Bills QB EJ ManuelThis year’s Buffalo Bills are very intriguing.

Really. They are. You may not believe me, but they are.

I do realize this is much like the boy who cried wolf, pretending over and over again that he had big news, only to find no one would believe him when it was finally imperative that they did.

Only in that story, the boy knew he was fibbing. Most Bills fans have been quite honestly and innocently duped by their own foolhardy, undying, overly-optimistic loyalty to the Buffalo Bills franchise, and a healthy dose of marketing by the well-oiled machine that spews forth powerful propaganda from the offices at One Bills Drive.

Why do I believe this? What could possibly cause me to utter such utter nonsense?

The Coaches

Bills Head Coach, Doug Marrone

You may have read here before that the Bills are nearly completely different from the very top (Russ Brandon is now in charge of the Bills world) on down. All of the coaching staff is different, so many players retired or were let go—different, new players filling their voids—and probably most noticeable, as well as most notable—the Bills spent the sixteenth overall pick on their “quarterback of the future”. This from a franchise who had never in its fifty-plus years selected a quarterback with their first pick of the draft!

There are regular reasons to be excited about this football team (good players) but I’d say the most intriguing aspect of the 2013 Buffalo Bills is the coaching staff.

The previous staff was completely obliterated, and not too long after they were “dismissed”, Doug Marrone was hired. Please refer to my article from last January to review some of the thoughts that were swirling about inside the collective head of the Buffalo Bills fans after this hire, but needless to say, there was more unknown than dissatisfaction.

Then he hired a few coaches, including Nathaniel Hackett as his Offensive Coordinator. Hackett previously worked for the Bills organization as Offensive Quality Control, or something like that. Basically, he played a very minor role. Not long after Marrone brought in the Syracuse University coaches that he wanted, he and Russ Brandon wooed the New York Jets defensive Coordinator for that same role on the Buffalo Bills coaching staff. He accepted.

Now things were beginning to get interesting.

Mike Pettine and Nathaniel Hackett

Hackett brings a very up-tempo, no-huddle, score-lots-of-points approach. Every report calls him innovative, and without a doubt he is energetic. It might be a more accurate portrayal to say he is pure energy! This is a drastic change from the previous coaching staff (and several before that) who were very established, grizzly NFL veterans. (Read: old and haggard.)

Mike Pettine, the new D-Coordinator, is not as vivacious as the young coach Hackett, but he’s on the younger side of the NFL coaching scale, and he’s equally innovative. He’s also had great success everywhere he’s coached. Previously the Jets’ Defensive Coordinator, he also coached the Baltimore Ravens defense with Rex Ryan before that. Again, wherever he’s been, his defense has seen great success.

The scheme fundamentally aims to fool the offense as much as possible—look like you’re coming with a blitz, from multiple positions, and then don’t. Or do. They’ll never know!—and apply MUCH pressure. Oh, and hit hard. Really hard.

So far through training camp and two preseason games, that’s exactly what we’ve seen.

Offensively, the Bills are running around 80 plays per game (that’s a good clip!) and they are getting yards and points.

This really is intriguing!

The QB Competition

Bills QB EJ Manuel

Probably the first thing about the 2013 Bills that fans and outside observers would all label ‘intriguing’ is the quarterback competition. After drafting EJ Manuel number sixteen overall, him being the first QB taken by any team in the draft, many eyes are on that position battle. And why not? The Bills really haven’t had a great QB since Jim Kelly, over twenty years ago! There were flashes of fun with one year of Drew Bledsoe, and another of Doug Flutie … but then we’ve had the insufferable stretch featuring the likes of JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards and even the lovable Ryan Fitzpatrick.

(He was especially lovable with that cute, orange furry face!)

The expectations bar is of course set quite low for whomever might assume the role of primary signal caller, but beyond the obvious, this really is an intriguing time.

Injuries have thrown an interesting wrench into the whole process. First, the veteran Kevin Kolb missed time because of a freak, off-field slip that hurt his knee (as well as some personal, family issues that he needed to tend to) and then news emerged after the second preseason game that EJ Manuel was having surgery on one of his knees following an injury sustained in that game.

Prior to the injury, Manuel had been separating himself a bit from the other two QBs in camp practices as well as game play. His poise, decision making, and obvious athletic ability have been consistently better than Kolb.

My theory is that EJ was only barely injured, and the coaches decided to (1) make sure he was better than OK before having him play anymore, and (2) since he was a clear front runner, they needed to see the other guys more anyway!

“Wait…” you say, “Why do you keep saying ‘other two guys’? It’s just two total, right? Kolb and Manuel? There is no third, right?”

Or so the media would have you believe.

jeff-tuel

Bills fans, on the other hand, are going gaga for Jeff Tuel. “Tuel Time” mania is sweeping the Bills Nation!

Jeff Tuel? Who? Indeed. The undrafted free agent has won the QB-starved hearts of Bills fans everywhere with his nearly flawless completion percentage, his strong, confident throws, and yes… touchdowns! We love touchdowns!

At this point in the history of this franchise, we don’t care where you came from, your pedigree, or any expectations the NFL experts may have of you … if you get us TDs, you’re IN!

Here’s the transcript of a recent exchange between a reporter and coach Marrone regarding the plausibility of Mr. Tuel assuming the role of starting quarterback:

Reporter: Where does Jeff Tuel stand in this QB competition. Is Jeff an option to play in week 1?

DM: I think … it was interesting… when you draft… a lot of what we’ve seen publicly is a lot of the emphasis is on EJ & Kevin. Whether I miscommunicated that, or whether that’s what we wanted to see. But I think if you go back and you look in the beginning, I said, ‘Hey, you know, I really like this kid we took from Washington State, who’s really done a good job,’ and really everyone was like, ‘Eh… what is he talking about?’ And I think we’ve seen that he’s gone in there and he’s really done a nice job. So at the end of the day … yes, I want him to compete to be a starting quarterback. Then we’ll evaluate whether that’s good enough for us to win with.

I had noticed before hearing this that there has been a strange, unanimous rejection by the media of any notion that Tuel had any part whatsoever in this QB competition. And, to be fair, the rest of that Marrone sound byte was basically “coach speak” about wanting every player to compete as though they had a chance to be the starter. This should signal that the media are correct in their presumptions. BUT…

You can’t argue with the young guy’s success!

Is it really possible that the Bills would field TWO rookie QBs in 2013? It’s possible. The Redskins had two rookies as their numbers one and two last year. The Bills may follow their lead with Manuel and Tuel being their one/two in 2013.

More intrigue!

Team Speed: FAST!

flash-goodwinOne thing that might be overlooked by some about these Bills is their speed. CJ Spiller is already one of the fastest men in the NFL at any position. Brad Smith is faster than most people realize. And CB Leodis McKelvin led the league in punt return average last season thanks largely to being fleet of foot.

This year, the Bills have added even more straightaway speed by drafting WR Marquise Goodwin, who was also an olympic track athlete. He joins TJ Graham, drafted in 2012, who also has track speed in his dossier, being a track runner himself. (Even Graham’s mother was a track star!) He has only improved on his sub-4.3/40 speed in 2013, as well as improved his game as a receiver. Many reports from offseason workouts were saying that Graham has been the player to watch.

So there is offensive team speed. Ridiculous team speed. I heard an interview with the Madden 25 player ratings guy, and he said there are four receivers for the Bills with 90+ speed ratings. “You’re going to like your receivers,” he told the Buffalo-based interviewer.

But the defense is just as fast. Quick to the ball. Running all over the place. Watch out for the linebackers this year. Rookie LB Kiko Alonzo looks to be the starter at the middle line-backer position, and he’s so far done really well. Guys like Manny Lawson, Jerry Hughes, and a few others are flying to the ball so far in training camp and preseason.

The speed of this group is very intriguing!

The Star Power (Yes! There is some!)

CJ Spiller

It would stand to reason that a team who has failed to make the playoffs for thirteen consecutive seasons might begin to accumulate very talented players. The system is set up to reward the worst teams with the best upcoming talent. So it’s not completely unbelievable to say that there are some very talented players on the Buffalo Bills roster.

But then, we also have the history of the past thirteen years. We know what the Buffalo Bills do with that talent. Generally, they squander it.

And sadly, players like Eric Moulds, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel, and a healthy amount of other players have toiled in relative NFL obscurity because of their team’s lack of success. One could ply the chicken-or-the-egg argument here, of course. Couldn’t lack of team success be a result of a lack of talent? (And thus, that deserved obscurity.) Perhaps.

But I’m going to say that many players who’ve donned the Red, White and Buffalo Blue have been unfairly forgotten by much of the NFL universe because of the black hole that this franchise has been for so long.

Now, despite this reputation—which again, is quite well-earned—the Buffalo Bills roster boasts some true NFL stars. CJ Spiller became a well-known name last year as he continually ripped off really long, electrifying runs—true highlight reel material.

Stevie Johnson is the only Buffalo Bills receiver to post consecutive, thousand-yard seasons. Only. Ever. On a list that includes all-time favorite Andre Reed, Hall of Famer James Lofton, and the aforementioned Eric Moulds. And Stevie’s done it THREE consecutive seasons. WITH Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. Guys. There’s something … a LOT… to that. He’s really good!

FS Jairus Byrd, Buffalo BillsOn defense, the backfield boasts two relatively young NFL stars: Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore. Who? Again, the obscurity of ineptitude. Jairus (who just signed his Franchise Tag Tender contract while I was finishing up this article!) is a Pro Bowl safety, who led the league in interceptions in his rookie season. He continues to be the “ball hawk” type, aided by his fellow backfield mate, Stephon Gilmore. Only entering his second year in the league, Gilmore has already been labeled a “shut down corner”, which just means he’s really good.

Don’t forget $100M Mario Williams is on this team, and, DT Kyle Williams, whom many feel is the best player on the Bills defense—maybe the team!

And, while you can’t call rookies “stars” just yet, don’t forget that EJ Manuel brings some level of “star power”, as do Kiko Alonzo, an aggressive and talented MLB, and super-speedy WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin (who already has a 107-yard kick return TD on his NFL stat sheet!). This whole team looks really, blazingly fast!

In addition to the draft, the Bills actually seem to have done pretty well in other offseason moves with the line-backer pair, Jerry Hughes and Manny Lawson creating consistent pressure (havoc!) in training camp and the first two preseason games.

These players will not be the “face of the franchise” yet, other than Manuel, but they may be someday soon.

bills-d

Cool Heads Prevail

All I am trying to say is, this year’s version of the Buffalo Bills will almost certainly be intriguing.

They are a completely different team. Wholly. The only parts that remain from any years past (including only one season ago) are what most would consider the best parts (Spiller, Jackson, Johnson, Byrd, Williams, Gilmore, etc.) They even released K Rian Lindell this week. He’d been the Bills kicker for 10 seasons, leaving the franchise as the most accurate kicker in its history, and only 38 points away from being its highest all-time scorer, too.

From players to coaches, to general manager, to the man calling the organizational shots: these are not the same Buffalo Bills.

And honestly, that is what is intriguing. I have no idea if they will win. I think they can? But I have no idea. I have no reason to think that they won’t, simply because these people who are wearing the Bills’ colors are nearly all NOT the people who have been for the past 10-15 years of complete incompetence. That seems like a good thing!

The season starts in just a few weeks, and you can bet that we long-time Bills fans will be clad in red-white-and-blue at 1pm on September 8th, anxious to see what this rendition of our Bills can do.

We’ll find out soon!

Go Bills!

Categories
Opinion

A Positive Look at the 2010 Buffalo Bills

Today is the day that the Buffalo Bills begin assembling at St. John Fisher. They have all been preparing in their own ways, separately and together as a team for the upcoming season. Pretty much since the last season ended. But tomorrow, when they take to the practice field, in front of a couple thousand fans eager to see their “weekend warriors” back in action, the 2010 season begins in earnest.

The expectations for this year’s version of the Buffalo Bills are expectedly low. Ten straight years of non-playoff, mediocre (or worse) football will earn you that. But, just like the organization did four years ago, they come to camp with a completely new face.

And I do mean completely.

Let’s Start From The Top

From the top down, the organization has changed. Gone are Dick Jauron and essentially all of his staff. Even Russ Brandon, who has been called the Bills’ General Manager for the past few seasons (though that was never officially his title, to my knowledge) has been “promoted” to Chief Executive Officer. That’s a really good move, actually, as Brandon has done a great job of marketing and growing and sustaining the organization as long as he’s been here. He should do a great job as the Bills’ CEO.

But a “football guy” he is not.

Enter Buddy Nix. Nix was working for the Bills last year as a head scout I believe (I forget exactly what his duties were) but this off-season, in the first move to remake the Buffalo Bills, he was hired as the team’s new General Manager. A “football guy” who has been around players and made player decisions for decades, and who knows that you need “football guys” to win football games.

Indeed.

Enter Chan Gailey. The very not highly-acclaimed Chan Gailey. Although names like Bill Cowher, Marty Schottenheimer, Mike Shanahan, Brian Billick, and Jon Gruden were not only “thrown around”, I believe most of those well-known coaches were interviewed by the Bills (or were themselves trying to get an interview with the team). In the end, the Bills eventually landed on Chan Gailey.

New Coach, New Hope

So, why Chan Gailey? The Bills are hoping that Gailey can have the success he’s had in the past, but… it’s becoming the distant past, in the world of sports. Gailey was last a head coach in Dallas in the late 1990s. And although he took the team to the playoffs two straight years, with 10-6 and 8-8 records, he was fired after just two seasons.

In contrast to his Bills predecessor, Dick Jauron, Gailey has always been a winner. In reviewing his (albeit quite small) record as a head coach at both the professional and collegiate levels, he has only had one losing season ever: 5-6 with Division 1-AA Samford Bulldogs. (Compared to Dick Jauron, who has more head coaching experience and has only ever had one winning season. Ouch.)

Gailey has a history of joining struggling teams and quickly “righting the ship”. That’s clearly one thing the Bills are banking on. Also, Gailey is an offensive-minded coach. For longer than I care to think about now, the Bills have been just ridiculously bad offensively. Offensively offensive, to be sure. So his being a successful offensive coach was definitely another reason that Gailey was chosen.

The question will be, does he have enough to work with?

The New Faces Under The Helmets

The Bills did not make the so-called “big splash” in free agency or the draft (many were hoping for more trades to happen in the draft) but they are certainly not the same team that we saw last year.

Of the 82 players the Bills had on their roster at the start of training camp last year (4 unsigned rookies and 78 signed players) only 47 are returning this year. That’s 35 new players. (The Bills currently have only 2 unsigned draft picks, and 80 players under contract.)

“But, who cares about training camp rosters,” you say? “The regular season roster is 53 players. That’s only 6 new players?!” A valid point, until you look at the roster for the opening game last season. Then you’ll notice that there are 23 players who began 2009 that are no longer on this team. (To be fair, that number does include eight practice squad and eight other reserve players.)

However you look at it though, the Bills definitely added to their team. If nothing else, simply by subtraction. When the new coaching staff came in, the first thing that happened was a massive cut of what were predominantly special teams players. I found that interesting in that those were the players who seemed to excel on our less-than-stellar roster. However, Bruce DeHaven (making his second appearance as Bills Special Teams Coordinator) must have disagreed.

Several WRs are among the more notable names who are gone: WRs Terrell Owens, Josh Reed, Justin Jenkins (one of those Special Teams guys). And yet, though clearly lacking experience, there is an abundance of talent at the WR position. Actually, there are several positions where the talent exceeds the number of roster spots. Besides receiver, the coaches will have a tough decision or two at LB, DB, RB, and even QB. (We’ll get to that in a bit…)

The Main Questions

Aside from the question of whether their head man was the right man for the job, the Bills clearly have many other questions. You probably know them all, so I’ll list them only briefly here:

  1. Offensive line. This unit was so badly injured last year that it’s hard to really assess the talent level. Returning are last year’s rookies Andy Levitre and Eric Wood, along with 2008 7th-round pick, Demetrius Bell. Add rookies Ed Wang (5th round) and Kyle Calloway (7th round) to an already vastly inexperienced line, and you’ve got a recipe for potential disaster! Geoff Hangartner, Kirk Chambers, and free agent Cornell Green are the only three players with more than two years of NFL experience among the Bills offensive linemen. Yikes.
  2. Quarterback. Clearly this is a big question for the team as well. For years now the Bills have never found “the guy” to lead their team under center. Just a season ago it was Trent Edwards for sure. But, with that broken offensive line, and poor play calling (as well as apparently, differing opinions amongst the coaching staff regarding that play calling) and likely other factors, Edwards was benched for a very mediocre Ryan Fitzpatrick, and later Brian Brohm was given a shot against the Falcons late in the season. Sadly, nothing has really changed, except reports are that Edwards seems to be “a different person.” More engaged, more leadership, and still has great physical ability. All three QBs will be given a shot to win the starting job… we’ll see what comes of that…
  3. Running Back. This offseason the rumors were flying regarding RB Marshawn Lynch’s future with the Buffalo Bills. Would they trade him? Were his days numbered? All of that followed the Bills using the 8th pick overall in the 2010 draft to get RB C.J. Spiller from Clemson. Spiller is a dynamic, exciting player, who has endurance and power also. He’s much like the Saint’s Reggie Bush, and the Bills are hoping to get that sort of production from him. Big plays. Last season Fred Jackson set records for the team with 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards in kick returns. He literally was the offense for this team. And if Marshawn Lynch returns to the form of his rookie season … the Bills don’t have question marks in their backfield, they have definitive exclamation marks. (Assuming their offensive line can hold together!)
  4. Linebacker. As I’ll discuss below, another big piece of the face lift for the Bills this season is their shift to a 3-4 defense. What that means is position shifts for many players. Several defensive ends moving to linebacker, and some of the LBs moving to other positions (outside linebacker to inside linebacker, or vice versa.) This not only means learning new positions, but it might mean some players don’t make the cut. Another one of the more deep positions for the Bills is LB with 14 players vying for a spot including: Paul Posluszny, Kawika Mitchell, Aaron Maybin, Andra Davis, Reggie Torbor, Keith Ellison, Chris Kelsay, Aaron Schobel, and more. Definitely a position to watch.
  5. Defensive Back. This is actually the most solid position on the team (besides maybe kickers and kick returners). Last year the Bills’ only Pro Bowler was S Jairus Byrd, a rookie with 9 INTs on the season! He was fairly amazing at being in the right place at the right time. (And he put up those numbers in only 11 starts!) Aside from Byrd, the unit returns all but one of their players from last season, adding a few free agents for training camp competition. The Bills also get CB Leodis McKelvin back who had a fairly promising rookie season in 2008, but was injured early in 2009 and missed most of that year. Good talent, and good depth, and—rare for this team—unit cohesiveness over a few seasons should lead to this being the most reliable, and perhaps most productive unit on the team.
  6. Special Teams. It deserves to be mentioned, althought usually these guys are (somewhat justifiably) overlooked. Even though the Bills have been mediocre or worse over the past decade, they have consistently led the league in many special teams categories. That will likely continue, or even improve in 2010. Thanks mostly to the return of their primary guys: K Rian Lindell, P Brian Moorman, PR Roscoe Parrish or CJ Spiller, KRs Spiller, Leodis McKelvin, and last year’s main guy, Fred Jackson. Bruce DeHaven (ST Coordinator for the Bills during their Super Bowl years in the 1990s) returns to head up this talented group and figures to maintain a high level of performance in this arena. The thing to watch will be just who actually gets picked to return the kicks. There is a really amazing level of talent and depth at that position for the Bills.

The “3-4 Defense”

If you know what that means, then you are a true football fan. The subject has been much discussed this offseason, after the Bills announced that that was the defensive scheme they would primarily employ in 2010. The “3-4” defense is a defense that features three defensive linemen (the guys right on the line of scrimmage) and four line backers (as it sounds, they are “back” off the ball, away from the line of scrimmage).

Previously (and like most teams have been in the NFL for a while now) the Bills ran a 4-3 defense, with four linemen and three linebackers. The main difference is that a 3-4 uses smaller, faster, lighter players. This actually will work to the Bills advantage in some ways as several of their defensive linemen will fit perfectly as outside linebackers in the 3-4 defense. (Aaron Maybin, Chris Kelsay, Chris Ellis, and—if he does not retire—Aaron Schobel are all former DEs moving to OLB this year.)

Adjusting to a new defensive scheme is always hard, but the Bills do seem suited to a 3-4. (And if you Bills fans will recall, the 3-4 is the defense that has given our team FITS over the past couple season, and is used by all of our division opponents.)

Another advantage will be the more frequent use of man coverage. The previous defensive scheme (a version of the “Tampa 2”) employed many zone coverages, which did not necessarily take advantage of the talent the Bills have in the defensive backfield. The cornerbacks and safeties are licking their chops for the added responsibility in 2010. The DBs will play tighter, one-on-one, and look to be up to the challenge. (Also this frees up players like ball-hawk Jairus Byrd to roam the backfield even more … adding to his already impressive INT totals!)

So, while it will be an adjustment, to be sure, the move to the 3-4 defense should also provide a marked improvement to a beleaguered, downtrodden Buffalo Bills organization.

There’s Hope, But…

So with many promising changes, and the hope of returning players gone for most of 2009 … the Bills really do have much reason for optimism in 2010. However, even if everything falls into place for them … check out this schedule:

Sept. 12 – vs. Miami
Sept. 19 – at Green Bay
Step. 26 – at New England
Oct. 3 – vs. New York Jets
Oct. 10 – vs. Jacksonville
Oct. 17 – BYE
Oct. 24 – at Baltimore
Oct. 31 – Kansas City
Nov. 7 – vs. Chicago (in Toronto)
Nov. 14 – vs. Detroit
Nov. 21 – at Cincinnati
Nov. 28 – vs. Pittsburgh
Dec. 5 – at Minnesota
Dec. 12 – vs. Cleveland
Dec. 19 – at Miami
Dec. 26 – vs. New England
Jan. 2 – at New York Jets

The AFC East has improved (most notably the NY Jets, but the Dolphins added WR Brandon Marshall, and the Patriots still have Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker. Oh, and that guy… Bill Belichick…) and the Bills face the AFC and NFC North. All (but Detroit and Cleveland, perhaps) quite formidable foes. That’s quite a tough schedule for a team who finished last in their division last season!

In the end, there are WAY too many questions about this year’s Buffalo Bills to have any idea about how they may fare. However, there are certainly enough bright spots to keep their biggest fans (and perhaps their smaller fans) hopeful that THIS will finally be the season the Bills are at least relevant… if not actually in the playoffs in 2011.

Sadly, though, the reality is that all indications point to this major “face lift” begun by the Bills in 2010 signifying that they are thinking long term. That means that likely 2010 will be setting the ground work for future seasons. That means… another season without playoffs.

That may be the reality, but for now… it will be fun to start with the blank slate of training camp and preseason and a fresh, new, NFL football season in September!

Bring it on! Go Bills!