Categories
Awesome Bills Fans Chiefs

Remember the good old days?… 2 Weeks ago?

You know how a picture is worth a thousand words? Well I put words IN the picture.

-BBR Other Guy

Categories
Uncategorized

Bills – Dolphins – 10 Things I Think

I had to work and didn’t watch the game. So this is 10 things a Bills fan thinks about his team, having seen 12 games and having “watched” a thirteenth on Gamecast.

1. I don’t think there can be any explanation for the total failure of this team to perform than failure of leadership. I think there is decent talent on this team, but the Bills are getting nothing out of them More below.

2. I think Trent Edwards is a good young quarterback who will play well in the NFL for several years, unless his injuries keep him from being effective. I think he would have had greater success this season with a more creative offensive scheme.

3. I think JP Losman is a physically talented young quarterback who, under the right coaches with the right scheme for him, could have some success in the league. Trent is and likely always will be better, but JP’s arm and his legs are good enough to win him a spot somewhere. It isn’t a secret, but he won’t be with the Bills next year. I wish him success. I like him.

4. To date, I have to consider Turk Schonert a failure as an offensive coordinator. How can you conclude otherwise, having seen the offense disappear over the pat few weeks?

Did you see Steve Smith’s touchdown catch against the Bucs? Carolina put him in a motion toward the center of the field, and on the snap the tight end came out into the flat. The pattern caused an instant of confusion and Smith was deep. There seemed to be small, creative details in the play design that I think is completely lacking in the Bills’ offense.

I think good teams create opportunities; I think the Bills are prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. Good opponents, even mediocre opponents, aren’t giving them opportunities.

5. The defense didn’t give up a touchdown on the opening drive against the Dolphins. It waited until the second drive. Once again, after giving up the initial touchdown, the defense played reasonably well.

No takeaways again, which is a sign of a passive defense. It’s a defense that doesn’t scare anyone, it just is fairly stingy when it comes to points.

The Bills defense isn’t spectacular, but it’s playing well enough to win a lot of games. Once again this year, the offense is letting them down.

However, I think the Bills defense is like the offense – it doesn’t create opportunities. That’s why there are so few takeaways. The defense isn’t aggressive and attacking. It plays conservatively and waits for the offense to make a mistake. Pennington kills this defense every year, because Pennington doesn’t make mistakes.

6. Imagine my excitement when I saw on Gamecast that Hardy had caught a first-quarter pass. Imagine my semi-disappointment when I realized he’d fumbled (at least the Bills recovered). Imagine my total disappointment when I read that the call had been reversed. Man, the kid needs work. I won’t give up on him this year. But next season he has to show something. No excuses then – he will have had a year to build himself up, to learn how football is played in the NFL. He doesn’t have to star in 2009, but he has to show us SOMETHING.

7. I can’t bear the thought that the Bills may need a new offensive line. I’m hoping it’s coaching; if the Bills need a new offensive line, it’ll take another three years to get an offense together.

8. It’s embarrassing enough to play badly before your hometown fans. We’re family, and unfortunately at some level we understand. It’s really embarrassing to take the team on the road, where the objective is to generate excitement for the team and make new fans, and then to play like that. Ralph Wilson called the 49ers game the worst game in Bills’ history, and he said it wouldn’t happen again. I haven’t seen yet what he called the Dolphins game. One thing is certain: it was the worst game in Bills history in Toronto.

9. I just can’t see how any management, even this one, can possibly conclude that a major coaching change isn’t needed. Wholly ineffective offense. No spark, no crispness, no hope. Uninspired play. Not only is the team bad, the games are boring.

There were a lot of questions about Dick when was hired. Those questions have been answered.

Maybe in some other environment, Dick could succeed. I don’t think so. I cannot think of a good professional football coach whose team has failed to show up week after week in important games. Dolphins, Jets, Pats, Browns, 49ers, Dolphins. The Browns game is the only game the Bills were even marginally competitive.

This is his team – his players, his coaches, his offensive and defensive scheme. A good coach with his players and his schemes wins. A bad coach doesn’t.

A friend told me that the Bills don’t have any big-time players. I simply can’t believe that year after year the Bills have failed – every time – to take impact players. The law of averages tells us that at least a few of these guys have to be good.

Think about how good we think these players are, and how unspectacular their play is: Whitner, Lynch, Hardy, Dockery, Peters, Edwards, McCargo, Losman, Poz, McKelvin, Stroud, Williams. SOMEBODY has to be good. It seems much more likely to me that these players are being taught a style of play that minimizes their talent, that loses.

I don’t see how I can conclude anything different.

10. I feel bad for the Bills good young players. Really bad. They’re experiencing football failure that they don’t deserve. They need the chance to play on a good team.

The Bills may be losing, but the Ball Burglar is still winning, helping kids who really need your help. Join today – pay a buck for every Bills takeaway. You’ll be glad you did. www.Ballburglar.com.

Categories
Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 14 Picks

LAST WEEK: 9-7 :: OVERALL: 116-75-1

After a very mediocre week 13 (especially thanks to two late changes – Washington and Green Bay, but also thanks to an incorrectly published pick, Atlanta over San Diego) … I am starting to think I should just give up for this year!

But I press on. Here’s how week 14 might turn out.

Oakland (3-9) at San Diego (4-8)

Why are these Thursday Night games so easy to pick? WINNER: San Diego.

Atlanta (8-4) at New Orleans (6-6)

Big NFC South divisional matchup. New Orleans needs to win. WINNER: New Orleans

Minnesota (7-5) at Detroit (0-12)

Can Detroit win a game? Something tells me this is their best chance of their remaining schedule. WINNER: Minnesota

Houston (5-7) at Green Bay (5-7)

Two teams that are hard to figure out, but gotta give the nod to the home, cold-weather team. WINNER: Green Bay

Jacksonville (4-8) at Chicago (6-6)

It would be surprising if the Jags could finish this game with more points than the Bears. They seem to have packed it in already. WINNER: Chicago

Cincinnati (1-10) at Indianapolis (8-4)

Not long ago this would have been a very exciting game. Lots of offense. This time, it will be one-sided. WINNER: Indianapolis

Philadelphia (6-5-1) at NY Giants (11-1)

I still can’t figure why the Giants have only one loss. (And that was to Cleveland!) But Philly won’t stop them. WINNER: NY Giants

Cleveland (4-8) at Tennessee (11-1)

Tennessee gets a “patsy” for a second straight week. WINNER: Tennessee

New England (7-5) at Seattle (2-10)

Buffalo would like some help from Seattle, and the Pats are going all the way across the country, but… WINNER: New England

NY Jets (8-4) at San Francisco (4-8)

Can the 49ers beat a team from the AFC East for a second straight week? WINNER: NY Jets

Kansas City (2-10) at Denver (7-5)

One of KC’s two wins was against Denver earlier this season. Denver just shellacked the Jets. Yeah… WINNER: Denver

Miami (7-5) at Buffalo (6-6)

In the first ever NFL regular season game in Canada, the Bills are in a must-win situation, with their starting QB sitting on the bench. Still, can’t go against my team. WINNER: Buffalo

Dallas (8-4) at Pittsburgh (9-3)

This could be a good game, because Dallas can score points quickly. But look for the Steelers D to dominate Big D. WINNER: Pittsburgh

St. Louis (2-10) at Arizona (7-5)

Can Arizona finally win their division this week??? The answer is yes. WINNER: Arizona

Washington (7-5) at Baltimore (8-4)

Which team is the home team here? Both should feel at home. WINNER: Baltimore

Tampa Bay (9-3) at Carolina (9-3)

Another great NFC South matchup. This one is for the division lead. Tough call. Really could go either way, so I almost always give the edge to the home team there. WINNER: Carolina

CONCLUSION

Bills fans are rooting for Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Washington (sorta). And, of course, the Bills. That would be a great weekend!!

Here’s hopin…
Go Bills!

[Play along at Facebook: Pro Football Picks and join the Buffalo Bills Review league!]

Categories
Coaching Staff Offseason Recommendations

My Christmas List

About this time of year all around the world, boys and girls of all ages begin making their Christmas lists. They think long and hard about what they want Jolly Ol’ St. Nick to bring them under the tree or in their stockings. Some things come easy, some take more thought, but usually the list is full by the end of the process!

This year, Bills fans were treated to a 5-1 start, best since 1991 (a year in which we were also treated to our second-straight Super Bowl appearance) and that super start has definitely made the recent stretch where they have posted a 2-6 record even more pronounced and harder to bear.

So what do Bills fans want for Christmas? What’s on their Christmas list?

First and foremost, you’d have to think that since the season is technically still salvageable, Bills fans want to see four straight wins. Another quarter of the season where they are 4-0. And a win streak going into the playoffs usually spells success in the post season, too. So, beating all three division opponents, plus Denver out at Mile High… that would be tops for this Bills fan, and dare I say most Bills fans.

But some are taking a different approach.

Dick Jauron is in his third season as Bills head coach, and it’s really just time to “put up or shut up,” as they say. Jauron has only had one winning season in his career. It was a very good season: 13-3. But up-close observers say it was also helped along quite a bit by fortunate bounces and other lucky breaks. Losing bad in their only playoff game that year, and then tanking the next season would suggest they were right.

So now he has two 7-9 seasons with the Bills, and has taken a 4-0 start and managed to go 6-6 by week 13. What do those numbers mean for Jauron and his staff? I’d say they point toward an imminent coaching change.

I have been a big supporter of Dick Jauron. I really like his demeanor, even though most do not. I like the way he has changed the attitude of this team from an arrogant, self-centered bunch of guys to a team-first, hard-working, high character group of guys who love to play together, and are more like a family. I think that is important. And every report I hear is that the players love that, too.

But the question has become, is that enough? And unfortunately, I think after the Cleveland game in which the coaching staff decided to run three straight plays up the middle to settle for a 47-yard field goal (which sailed eerily wide right…) I realized what many have been trumpeting since Jauron was brought to Orchard Park in the first place: the man is just not a winning head coach.

Where do we go from here then? Is it time to rebuild? Time to offer another unproven (or just plain losing) coach the reins once more? Is it time to start over again??? In many ways, I don’t think it is, but if I could make the ideal Christmas list, it might look something like this…

Ralph Wilson Sells the Team to Jim Kelly & Friends

We don’t yet know who the funding source for Jim Kelly’s bid to buy the Bills might be, but the rumors persist that such a group exists. In fact, on Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago, Peter King actually mentioned that fact as though a plan were already in motion to make it so. Until that time, most reports had Wilson not selling the team until after he dies, so that would be a slight change.

To me, this is the key. The Bills have been around for nearly fifty years now, and most all of their head coaches have been second-level coaches. Almost never has a “big name” coach been brought in to run this team. Why? Partly because of the “small market” deal, where Wilson insists we just don’t bring in enough money. I’m sure that is true. But it must also be from the owner himself. It’s been his philosophy. Spend as little as possible, and hunt for the hidden gems. At times it works, but for the most part… it has not.

But, if Wilson were to sell the team to Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Sabres’ Owner Tom Golisano, and whomever else Jim can rustle up, the Bills might begin to take on a different shape. Jim was not a conservative player. He was a “gun slinger”. He always trusted his arm to get him out of anything. He was hard-headed, tough-nosed, and a gutsy leader of this blue collar team in a blue collar town. I have to believe he would bring many of those qualities to his role as majority owner of the team.

That would be #1 on my Christmas list.

Mike Holmgren

Nothing against Bills’ Chief Operating Officer, Russ Brandon, but he’s not a football GM. He is a business and marketing guy. And actually, he’s done a very good job. Bills season ticket base is second-highest in team history. The team has successfully “regionalized” and are hoping to further that with the 5-year Toronto Initiative. (First regular season game is this Sunday.)

But he’s not a football guy.

Most know that Mike Holmgren, currently the Seattle Seahawks’ head coach (and Executive VP of Football Operations… General Manager) is planning to retire from coaching at the end of this season. Another thing the Bills are sorely lacking at the moment is a good man at the top.

When Marv Levy decided to call it quits, the Bills lost their vision caster. I’m not sure Marv was doing much more than just being Marv-elous around the players, coaches, and staff around One Bills Drive. He certainly had a hand in bringing in the talent that is currently on this team (and pulling out the weeds from previous administrations) but he was definitely not the full role of the typical NFL General Manager.

Perhaps Mike Holmgren, a well-respected, long-time student of the game, would be willing to “retire” to a similar role with the Buffalo Bills? There is already a nucleus of talent. With a knowledge of the game, and of the league, and a track record of winning (won Super Bowl with Green Bay, got there with Seattle) it would make sense that he could do it again in Buffalo.

Look at what Bill Parcells has done for Miami in just one season. Perhaps Mike Holmgren could do something similar here with the Bills.

That’s item number two for my Christmas list.

Marty Schottenheimer

You’ve heard us say it on the show. You’ve heard Bills fans for a few years now mention his name here and there. You’ve just heard his name right alongside perennial playoff contenders for decades in the NFL. Everywhere Marty has gone, he has won. (He still has the “Can’t Win the Big Ones” monkey on his back, but perhaps that could change eventually? Given the right circumstances?)

Schottenheimer is still available. He hasn’t been snatched up yet. The Bills greatest struggles in recent years has been their offense. It doesn’t make sense when you have players like Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Roscoe Parrish, and even Trent Edwards who has shown so much promise, despite this year’s mid-season slump. Perhaps such an offensive-minded coach could be the impetus we need to move to the next level?

(Yes, I know, Schottenheimer played LB with the Bills when he was here in the 60s, but he is known for offensive teams. And he’s also known for winning.)

That would be Christmas list item #3.

In the end, I’m not sure I’ll really get any of the items on my Christmas list. The Bills have been very consistent in their mediocrity through the years, and most of it starts with the owner, and the way he wants to run his team. Bringing in guys like Holmgren and Schottenheimer are not his typical style. But, you’re never too old to change, are you? Ralph just turned ninety, and perhaps he’d like to turn over a new leaf for his team’s 50th anniversary in two years…

Or, maybe we’ll just keep plugging along with the status quo for Buffalo Bills fans. Some good moments, several bad… and year after football year that end with no meaning… no playoffs… and no real excitement for what lies ahead.

Well this Christmas, I’m hoping for the best. Either we win all four remaining games and make the playoffs, or Ralph calls it quits, and Jim Kelly (and his team), Mike Holmgren, and Marty Schottenheimer come in for the trifecta and take the team to Super Bowl 44 or 45, just in time for the Bills 50th anniversary season.

That would be a Christmas present Bills fans would not soon forget!

Merry Christmas, everyone! And to all, a BILLS WIN!

Categories
Uncategorized

What’s Wrong With the Bills

Funny how there is so much more to say when the team is not doing well! One good thing for the Bills is that they actually have quite a few talented players and even if this season is a bust, with new coaching could have a great year next year. The common theory that a coaching change mandates 2-3 years of rebuilding is really not accurate (it has been with the Bills but…). Jon Gruden took the Bucs to the SuperBowl in his first season. Mangini made the playoffs in his first season, So did Tony Dungy, Parcels, etc. There are many more than you might think. Even Tony Sparano has had immediate success with the Dolphins and has a real chance to get the team into the playoffs 1 year after 1-15. Parcels may be the GM but he is not coaching the team, Sparano is and he’s doing a great job. Singletary came in mid season and is already making a difference for the 49ers. I guess my point is that, if the Bills actually hire a good coach who calls plays and game plans to the strength of the players on the team rather than forcing the players to try to play in a pre-invented “system”, the team can see success quickly. The Bills have a lot of young talent on the team that could make the team very competitive quickly if properly used. What kind of Coach gives Lynch so few carries? Uses his inexperienced (somewhat unproven) QB to throw on critical plays rather than going to their proven ground game? Forcing guys like Leodis McKelvin, who is a strong man to man guy, to play lots of zone in the Tampa Two? You don’t need to completely rebuild a team if you know how to take advantage of the players you already have. Dick Jauron and friends scour the draft class for guys that might fit in their system while the best teams take great players and find a way to adjust the system to include them. Put Bobby April at the helm and the Bills would likely win their last 4 games and have a shot. With Jauron in there they really don’t have a chance.

It has become abundantly clear to me that this staff does not know how to get the most out of the talent they have on the team. There are two types of coaches, the ones who develop game plans based on the players they have and develop plays and strategies that maximize the potential of the players they have, and there are the type who develop a “Scheme” and try to force their players to fit in the “Scheme”. There are always going to be times when a player doesn’t work with the style of football you play (ditching a good linebacker because he is a 3-4 guy and you run a 4-3) but those situations should be the exception. It is easy to come up with a list of coaches who develop game plans based on the players they already have, they are the ones that consistently win football games.

As a Bills fan, how many times have you said something to this effect: “That play would have worked great if we had a better Tight End” or maybe “If we had a tall receiver we could have coem down with that catch”? The problem is that, if you don’t have a tight end who can make that play, you shouldn’t be calling the play. These are classic symptoms of inflexible “scheme” coaching. The Bills haven’t had a guy that knew how to utilize his players since Wade Phillips. Wade almost took it too far by trying to change players from week to week in order to come up with a better attack. A good idea with receivers etc, not with QBs.

So the Bills top priority is to find a good coach who knows how to make the most of his players (seems especially key in Buffalo where sometimes the team is a little cheap with player acquisitions). But the second priority is to find a new Quarterback. Sorry Trent Supporters, but this kid is just not tough enough for this league. At this point I have trouble making excuses for his totally inept play whenever the weather isn’t perfect. He’s sloppy, seems to have trouble with the cold (he’s really quick to get in his cape and seems to really be uncomfortable in the cold weather, just looks miserable on the sideline, like a Miami player in town for a visit, not a Bills player). Trent’s a nice guy, a good media man, seems to inspire his players and apparently the fans (its the only explaination for the undying support for a guy with really unimpressive career numbers) Trent has a 78.4 Career rating while Losman has a 77.9. If this is your idea of dramatic improvement over Losman, I guess everything is fine. Personally I think the Bills need a new starting QB. Losman is really not part of the discussion as he will most certainly leave as soon as the season is over and his commitment to Buffalo is finished. So even if the Bills want to stick with Edwards (a bad move I think) they will still need to acquire either a veteran free agent or draft another Quarterback to fill in the roster. Ideally they will do both.

Its hard to say which current QBs will hit the free agent market, but the Bills will probably take some mid-level guy, rather than spending big money for an older veteran. I’m ok with this, because the team needs to address the quarterback properly in the draft. Edwards may or may not have been a steal, but the team shouldn’t be banking on him being a success. Tom Brady was not drafted to be the starter. Bledsoe was their starter and was not even phased when they drafted Brady to be his backup. Belichick has said publicly, that they chose Brady because he was an inch taller than the other quarterback who was still available that late in the draft. It was dumb luck. The majority of the top quarterbacks in the league are taken early in the first round and come from one of the top football schools. The key difference being that only a dozen or so teams in College football use NFL style offenses.

The vast majority of college teams use simpler offensive systems where receivers are not expected to modify their routes according to reads. In the NFL, most teams encourage their players to adjust their routes according to the defense they encounter. The result should be more open receivers, but things become a lot trickier for the quarterback because the receivers are not where he expects them to be all the time. NFL quarterbacks need to be able to quickly read the field and instantly adjust to changed routes and find their open receivers. Coming out of college, players like Losman and Edwards who went to schools like Tulane and Stanford don’t get the benefit of coming into the NFL with experience operating a Pro Offense. (who knows what to call the mess that was Stanford football while Trent was there). So unless the QB is coming from a school like Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Boston College etc. there is a greater learning curve to be expected and a much greater chance the guy just won’t be able to handle an NFL style offense. The Bills need to stop being cute and go after a proven quarterback in the draft like Colt McCoy (although not necessarily him) who has essentially already had expeience in a Pro system. Then they need to start him right away rather than leaving him on the bench to lose all the momentum and excitement he had coming out of college and the draft.

The Bills also need to pick up at least three defensive ends and another linebacker or two. At defensive end they should look to free agency and pick up a proven talent as well as a project guy then also take the best guy they can get in the draft. They need to spend their top pick on quarterback, so probably a 2nd rounder.

The biggest question is wether the Bills brain trust has the guts to make the big moves. I think at least, they will fire Jauron. Ralph Wilson skipped out on the press conference after Sunday’s embarassing loss and seems to be thoroughly displeased with Jauron. NFL teams are not responsible for voided coaching contracts so there is really no reason to keep Dick Jauron around, regardless of wether there was an extension signed or proposed or whatever. Coaching contracts are little more than a show of intent. Lets just hope the Bills bring in the right guy to replace him. If they make the right choice, there won’t be any rebuilding to worry about.

Categories
Uncategorized

Bills 3 – 49ers 10 – 10 Things I Think

1. Why don’t we start by honoring a great football team in Orchard Park, NY? That would be the Orchard Park High School Quakers, who scored 21 unanswered points in the second half to win the New York State Championship in Syracuse on Sunday. 21-17 final. (Meanwhile, the other team in Orchard Park managed 3 unanswered points in a stirring 10-3 loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL.)

Congratulations to Section VI, which won FOUR state football championships over the weekend. No Section had won more than two in any previous year.

2. This week’s 10 Things requires more creativity than in past weeks, so be kind to me. Creativity is required because (a) there’s no point in savagely bashing the team and coaches for a couple of pages, and (b) NOTHING HAPPENED IN THE GAME. That was about the most boring football game I’ve ever seen. The level of futility reached a new high (or is it low?) for the NFL.

The LA Times captured it best: “San Francisco 10, Buffalo 3 – Can you imagine saving your money to go see one game all year, and this is the game you chose?”

Leaving the stadium, I overheard one fan say “nothing exciting happened in the whole game.” And he was nearly correct. Marshawn’s long run and a couple of other runs were exciting. Leodis’s kick return made the grade, as did one Roscoe punt return. That was about it.

3. McKelvin is really growing on me. He was schooled a couple of times by Isaac Bruce (including on the touchdown), but that would leave Leodis in pretty good company. Isaac Bruce has taught a lot of lessons in his career.

I was at the game and didn’t see good replays, but the interference call against Leodis seemed pretty weak. He also missed a couple of tackles in run support, but he was there to make the play – he’ll learn to finish. He looks decent now, and his potential is obvious.

And Leodis certainly has figured out how to return kicks. He’s downright scary back there.

In the second half, I actually found myself thinking the Bills had a better chance of scoring when they were on defense, because Leodis might get a pick. (Of course, I believed Marshawn could score, but the Bills weren’t going to give him the ball inside the 10. More about that later.)

I wasn’t thrilled with the draft pick at the time, but it clearly was a good move.

4. I entered the Stadium early on Sunday, and I walked right up to the security officer – no waiting. That was completely different from the Monday night game, when 45 minutes before there game there was a big (and dangerous) crowd, pushing people from behind and creating a frightening environment. People were getting injured and feared for their lives. I understand that as game time approached for the 49ers game, the backup grew again.

No need to worry about the crowds at the security lines for the New England game. All three BIlls fans ought to be able to get into the game without incident, unless 75,000 Patriots fans show up.

5. The Ball Burglar had an okay day – one takeaway. The Bills “forced” several fumbles, but they really deserve little credit for some. The one they recovered was, for the second week in a row, an unforced fumble – the ball carrier went to the ground without having been touched and fumbled on his own. Another “forced” fumble was a mishandled snap. Denney did force one nicely on his sack.

The Bills definitely need to do better taking the ball away, but it’s hard to do when the defense plays so passively. Against the 49ers, they didn’t seem to be in attack mode. There wasn’t much pass rush, there wasn’t a lot of blitzing, and there looked to be a lot of cover two again, with the linebackers dropping. The defense worked fine to keep the score down, but it didn’t produce any opportunities for the offense. In other words, the defense really played well, but it put me to sleep. The offense, of course, did nothing to rouse me from my slumber.

6. The defense gets high praise and a question mark at the same time. The question mark is the opening drive. The Bills are making it a habit, giving up a touchdown on the opening drive. I like deferring to the second half – the second half is the time to win games, and you want the ball to open the second half. However, it’s maddening to be down seven without even having had the ball.

Sunday was really bad – that was a 14-play, eight minute drive in which the defense let the 49ers convert four consecutive third downs. That’s absolutely horrible. It was passive defense at its worst.

(All season long the Bills have seemed to be unprepared to play at the beginning of the game. It’s one of many problems that lead me to believe that these coaches may be good teachers but not good game coaches.)

After that, the defense did what a good defense is supposed to do against a lousy offense: shut it down. For the remaining 52 minutes of the game, the 49ers gained 123 yards (77 passing and 46 rushing), were 3 for 11 on third down conversions and got only 7 first downs. At least one first down came on a Bills penalty. The 49ers couldn’t run and they couldn’t pass. Was it the Bills defense or were the 49ers just bad? I’ll give the nod to the defense, just to be positive.

7. Congratulations also to UB, in line for the second bowl bid in the history of the school – and first bowl appearance. They play exciting, watchable football. OBD, are you listening?

If you’re looking for an interesting article about how times have changed, read this article about UB’s first bowl bid, 50 years ago.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=buffalo58

I lived a few blocks from the UB field and used to go to some of those games.

8. Everyone fell down against the 49ers, even the special teams. Two missed field goals, an ugly punt, and Roscoe getting himself tackled deep on a punt. One time the players on the kick receiving team had to run to the sideline to remind Ryan Denney that he was supposed to be on the field. And didn’t the Bills call a timeout to get organized on special teams one time? (I’ve forgotten.)

Still, Bobby April is the only coach on this team who week after week shows that he knows how to make things happen. Year after year he takes whoever is available and turns them into top kick return and kick coverage teams. Currently 4th in kick returns, second in punt returns, second in kick coverage and 26th (!) in punt coverage. It isn’t an accident.

The guy knows how to organize his teams, and he knows how to game plan for his opponents. I honestly don’t know that any of the other coaches know how to do it.

9. Hard to know what we have in Trent now. All of the negative comments from months ago certainly look like they’re being borne out: can’t play in bad weather, injury prone, mediocre arm, etc. It’s really hard to know if yesterday was weather, the injury, his confidence, what. It’s pretty discouraging. I’m still confident that he’s a quality QB in the making. Sunday was not his finest hour.

The Bills got the same old same old from JP. Great arm – man, he really can deliver the ball. Not-so-good decision making. On one sack, they showed an isolated view of Hardy on the Jumbo Tron – Hardy was running a streak with man coverage, and he had at least seven inches on the guy Instead of taking the sack, why not throw it out there and let the big guy make the play? (Is that JP’s fault, or the coaches? I don’t know; but it was a better choice than a sack.)

I don’t think quarterbacking lost this game. I think coaching did.

10. Something is seriously wrong within the team (coaches and players). There were several questions after the game about why the Bills are late getting to the line of scrimmage. JP isn’t diplomatic enough to know how to avoid the issue in public – he said he’s a team guy and he’s going to keep team issues in-house. He said they can ask all they want; he will not talk about in-house issues. By saying that he made it clear that there are in-house issues. Trent was better covering it up, but it was clear even with him that this team’s play calling is disorganized.

What are the problems? Are Dick and Turk disagreeing about play calls? Who knows? What is obvious is that the Bills are sluggish and indecisive on the field and ill-prepared for games (that’s why they always start slowly). They have none of the crispness on offense that we saw at the beginning of the year. They are slow and predictable. Between the slow play calls, the runs and the short passes, it seems like Bills drives take five minutes to go 20 yards. It’s excrutiatingly painful to watch. In fact, the quality and the pace of the play takes the home fans out of the game. It’s impossible to be enthusiastic watching football played at a pace more suited to golf.

The entire team is out of sync. Trent scrambled and ran into his blocker. Fred caught a screen pass and ran into his blocker. JP passed up a a great up-the-gut scramble and cut to the outside for no gain. The special teams had their issues.

TV watchers probably couldn’t see it, but during one time out, with the Bills on offense, Takeo, Jason and Josh stood around the ball chatting. I hate to see that. After the game, fine, but during the game that guy is the ENEMY. I have to believe Tom Coughlin would chew their butts from here to San Francisco for doing that.

This team doesn’t threaten anyone, on offense or on defense. It doesn’t say “here we come to kick your butt.” Instead, it says “here we are, how about a friendly game?”

The Bills finally started running the ball with some success in the past few weeks, but against the 49ers they abandoned the run – Losman and Edwards attempted 38 passes, and Lynch and Jackson carried only 21 times. Take away Marshawn’s 50-yard run, and he still had 84 yards in 15 carries, almost 6 yards per. The Bills played the first half with an injured QB and the second half with their backup, against a mediocre rushing defense, averaged 6.2 yards per carry and passed almost twice as much as they ran!

The Bills ran seven plays (or more? someone said nine) inside the 49ers’ 10 yard-line, and Marshawn Lynch touched the ball once. Which was the one play he got the ball? Immediately after his 50-yard carry – no chance to get a blow, nothing. That was it – let him run fifty yards, call his number again; before and after that, never. Marshawn has to know that when he breaks a long one, he MUST get into the end zone, because the chances are slim that he’ll get another chance or that anyone else will get the job done.

This team at 5-1 was in ideal position to go to playoffs. As they entered crunch time in the season, they folded, badly. They didn’t show up for must-win game after must-win game. The Bills haven’t been ready for a game in six weeks. Even against Kansas City, without the Leodis INTs, they could have been in trouble. They gave up nearly 500 yards to a team with one win.

I look at all these things and I conclude the coaches don’t know how to make a team a winner.

I’m a Bills fan. I’ll watch forever. Next week, we’ll win. I know it. I don’t know how, but we will.

That’s what I think every week.

See you here in a week.

Categories
Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 13 Picks

LAST WEEK: 10-6 :: OVERALL: 107-68-1

This is late getting up, but it’s been a full week with the holiday and Black Friday and all.. 🙂 Ha! Last week was not so good, I maintain that this has been one of the craziest NFL seasons. Very difficult to predict what will happen as any team can beat any other team so far this year, including undefeated teams!

Let’s take a look at week 13.

Tennesee (10-1) at Detroit (0-11)

This was not going to be a game anyway, but got worse when Tennessee lost the week before. WINNER: Tennessee.

Seattle (2-10) at Dallas (7-4)

Why were there such bad games for Thanksgiving? WINNER: Dallas

Arizona (7-4) at Philadelphia (5-5-1)

Should have gone with my gut on this one. Arizona is awful on the road, especially the east coast. WINNER: Arizona

Miami (6-5) at St. Louis (2-9)

Miami is playing well, and St. Louis is not. Strange, but true. WINNER: Miami

NY Giants (10-1) at Washington (7-4)

Washington wants to make ammends for a poor week one performance, Portis is playing. WINNER: NY Giants

New Orleans (6-5) at Tampa Bay (8-3)

Defense wins championships, and games. WINNER: Tampa Bay

Carolina (8-3) at Green Bay (5-6)

Green Bay played well, despite the score, last week. Home team wins in late November. WINNER: Green Bay

Indianapolis (7-4) at Cleveland (4-7)

Cleveland lost their starting QB, and Indy’s keeps getting better. WINNER: Indianapolis

Baltimore (7-4) at Cincinnati (1-9)

Baltimore is playing well on offense, too. Shouldn’t have any problem here. WINNER: Baltimore

San Francisco (3-8) at Buffalo (6-5)

Buffalo should have no problem here, either. It is the return of Clements and Spikes. That should be fun. WINNER: Buffalo

Atlanta (7-4) at San Diego (4-7)

Atlanta will surprise a beatable Chargers team. WINNER: Atlanta

Kansas City (1-10) at Oakland (3-8)

This game is almost impossible to pick, because BOTH are so bad! Chiefs are playing better. WINNER: Kansas City

Pittsburgh (8-3) at New England (7-4)

Surprisingly good game here, can the Steelers defense win the game for them? Yes. WINNER: Pittsburgh

Denver (6-5) at NY Jets (8-3)

The JETS beat the TITANS??? Yikes. Denver shouldn’t have a chance here. WINNER: NY Jets

Chicago (6-5) at Minnesota (6-5)

Classic NFC North battle. Home team wins. WINNER: Minnesota

Jacksonville (4-7) at Houston (4-7)

Both of these teams have had tough seasons. They are better than their records indicate, but have had their struggles. Jags have a great running game when they can get it going. WINNER: Jacksonville

CONCLUSION

Bills fans are rooting for St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Denver and Pittsburgh. And, the Bills. That would be a great weekend!

Go Bills!

[Play along at Facebook: Pro Football Picks and join the Buffalo Bills Review league!]

Categories
Current Bills Games

A Game of Inches

Football is a game of inches. Inches turn into feet and feet turn into yards. And yards, of course, turn into what feels like miles.

But it all starts with inches.

Looking back on the Buffalo Bills mid-season slump, it’s easy to see how Bills fans can feel like this team is just plain awful. The turnover difference alone was abysmal. Minus 11 over the six game stretch where they were 1-5. But add to that the apparent ineptitude of the run game, as well as the general lack of production from the offense… and you have some sizable “inches”.

The problem is, from a slightly different perspective, you can see how it really is about the inches.

Take for example, the game against the Jets. If all things were equal – meaning Trent gets injured on play number three of the Cards game, and the Bills are stunned by the Fish, and they remain befuddled by Belichick’s gameplans, and they even lose a very winnable game to the hapless Browns – winning just one game in which they were very competitive, they would be in a tie for first place in the AFC East, instead of two games out. Just by winning that one game.

Ugh.

Remember that game? The Bills had the ball for fifteen straight minutes. Game minutes, not clock minutes. They moved into the red zone once and, thanks to good pressure from the Jets and a receiver slipping, the ball went the other way for seven points. The next time, thanks to a couple very questionable spots, the Bills could not get a first down deep in the Jets territory. Two long drives, zero points.

Add to that the crazy play by Leon Washington to step out of bounds and then touch the ball that was still IN BOUNDS in order to get the Jets the ball at the 40 rather than inside their own 10. Or, the Bills inability to stop the Jets on the final drive of the 4th quarter where they took off a big chunk of time and posted three more points. (Credit the Jets on that one.)

But for a few key plays, the Bills could have won that game, and been in a much different position than they find themselves in now.

Now they are 0-3 in their division. If they have any hopes of advancing to the playoffs, they will need to win the rest of the games they play in the AFC East. At the New York Jets, “home” against the Dolphins (in Toronto), and then home against the Patriots in the final week of the season. None of those will be easy, but the Bills certainly can compete in each of those games.

If we’re talking inches, don’t forget that the Bills were stunned by Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. who had the game of his life when they last met. Even with Ginn’s stunning performance, the Bills had clawed back to take a 16-7 lead in the third quarter. But one player – Josh Reed – went down with a serious injury, and the offense began to sputter. One player was hobbled by an injury – Terrance McGee – and that deficiency was exploited… greatly.

But for a few different plays, a different player, a few different calls, an NFL season can look very, very different altogether. Just ask the San Diego Chargers. Losers of four games in the final 26 seconds of those games… they are a pitiful 4-7 this season, but could very well be 8-3. That’s a very big difference.

Every game in the NFL is critical. Wins and losses matter more in football than in any other sport I can think of. With only 16 games per season, and only 6 games total against the other teams in your division, it’s almost essential you win every game! The Bills have been sloppy at points (Miami, Cleveland) and unlucky in others (Arizona, NY Jets) and now they are stuck with a 6-5 record, and still on the outside edge of the proverbial playoff bubble.

Every year, players and fans can look back at “what might have been” but in the end, that really never helps. The Jets game is over, and the Bills lost. The difference is first to last place, from just one game, but you can’t get it back. Now the Bills can only look forward, and hope to win every game they play. 10-6 may not be good enough to make the playoffs this year.

Actually, 11-5 might miss the playoffs!

If the Bills won all the rest of their games – finishing 11-5 – the Jets would lose one, to the Bills, but could win the rest of theirs, to finish 12-4. The Patriots would only be able to finish 11-5, by virtue of of a loss to the Bills, and the Fins could only finish 9-7, again, after a loss to the Bills, and assuming they lose to the Jets in week 17. What could keep the Bills out of the playoffs is if Indy and Baltimore also win the rest of their games, to both go 12-4 and grab the two wild card spots! What a crazy scenario that is!

A better scenario for Bills fans would be for the Jets to lose to the Dolphins, and finish 11-5 at best, and then the Bills would win the division based on the better conference record (would be 8-4). That would send the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999!

But any way you slice it, thanks to this game of inches… the Bills need help. They can’t make the playoffs on their own. They have to do their share (beating all three division opponents at least, and probably Denver, too, if not all five games) but even if they can accomplish that, they won’t be in the playoffs unless other teams falter.

How does it always end up this way?

Somehow, the Bills need to find a way to get on the other side of the ruler. We’re only talking a matter of inches.

Categories
Uncategorized

Bills – a lot – Chiefs – not so much – 10 Things I Think

Welcome to the Buffalo Bills Roller Coaster. Either the greatest show on earth, or just cheap thrills.

1. It’s nice to have a win, really nice.

When you lose, no matter how you lose, it’s always bad. When you win, no matter whom you beat, it’s a good thing. Yes, it was the Chiefs. Yes, the Bills won primarily on Chiefs’ mistakes. Yes, all sorts of things didn’t go all that well for Buffalo.

The Bills won. They desperately needed a win, and they got it.

It’s a good thing.

2. The Bills need playmakers, and Leodis McKelvin is a playmaker. Both interceptions were outstanding individual plays, reacting to the ball, beating the receiver and making the catch. (Did someone say he had bad hands?) Big-time athletic play, putting the ball over the pylon. Another really nice kick return. Two games in a row, he’s given the Bills an edge.

Bobby April said Leodis needed time to understand what the Bills were doing on kick returns. Perry Fewell said Leodis needed time to understand his assignments on defense. Looks like time was on his side. We’re starting to see the talent that made him a top draft pick. Leodis could be one of those special players championship teams need.

3. I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but I saw a lot of things I didn’t like:

a. The Bills couldn’t stop the Chiefs. Chiefs were 26th in the league in yards per game, 29th in points. The Bills gave up 462 yards and a lot of points. The Chiefs punted only three times. It wasn’t a great defensive performance. I’m not sure I can even call it good. What the Bills did do is make some big plays – two by McKelvin. They forced a fumble. Big plays overcome a lot.

b. The defense gave up two long plays. What is it with the big plays? Of course, if you take away the big plays, the Bills only gave up about 300 yards and two fewer touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Bills don’t seem to be able to take away the big plays.

c. The Bills gave up a touchdown drive to start the game. Not good.

d. The Bills TWICE left the greatest tight end in the history of the game absolutely completely totally wide open. “Okay, fellas: This guy, number 88, he’s good. We want to have someone on him all the time.” Did you see that touchdown catch? How in the world do you forget about Tony Gonzalez at the goal line?

He’s going to catch some balls, sure. I’ll give him that. But we should try covering him.

e. The offense put up a lot of points, and they gained a bunch of yards, but can you say they dominated? They didn’t pass for 300. They did have nice success running the ball, but somehow it didn’t feel dominant. I guess it was because a lot of the rushing yards were Trent’s. Those yards are nice, but that doesn’t mean the running game is working.

f. The Bills seem to be in love with throwing the ball to Marshawn in the flat. What is that all about? Trent wasn’t dumping the ball to him – he was throwing it to him by design.

4. 121. Passer rating of 121 for Trent Edwards. Talk about feast or famine. Trent still looked inconsistent. The long ball to Evans could not have been better. A couple of the slants were thrown behind the receiver. The overthrow of Robert Royal was, well, it was unbelievable.

Trent definitely was happy to have Reed back. He knows where he can find Reed, and he gets him the ball. Overthrew him once on the deep out route. Found him nicely – Reed did a great job going deep, then pulling up – on that scramble to his right.

Overall, Trent did a nice job passing.

Trent running? To be honest, I wasn’t completely excited about it. First, as noted above, those aren’t the rushing yards we want. Second, the run at the end of the half was a big gamble, because if he didn’t get in, the half was over. He won the gamble, and winners win more than their share of those, so I’ll add that one to the plus column. Then he did it again to open the second half. Then he ran, didn’t slide, got hit and fumbled. Dumb play. The Bills need him in the game. He didn’t, couldn’t slide on the touchdown runs. In the middle of the field, he has to get down.

I think Trent came into the game determined to show he isn’t the guy we watched for the past four weeks, the guy who was losing games instead of winning games. That’s a good thing, of course. I want him to be determined. The Bills need more than that; however; they need him to be smart. Taking hits like a running back isn’t smart.

With all that, of course, his runs were great plays. We’ve known he can run pretty well; he just doesn’t do it much. The Bills thought Trent would have opportunities on the move in this game, and he took advantage of them.

5. Defensive questions:

a. Anyone seen Poz lately? What happened to the tackling machine? Is someone else wearing number 51?

b. Mitchell? Looked to me like he was around a lot of mistakes.

c. And Wilson? I think the guy just has poor cover skills. We saw it all last year. And we saw it on the long touchdown against the Chiefs. Yes, he fell (he fell last year, too). Defensive backs are not supposed to fall. They’re supposed to keep running and get themselves into the play. The ball was underthrown, and it looked like he could have gotten there.

Wilson does a lot of good things. He’s always around the ball when he’s coming forward. He blitzes well. I like the guy. I just think he hurts the Bills in pass defense, and that’s not a good thing for a defensive back.

d. Maybe it just wasn’t all that good a day for the defense.

6. Most amazing takeaway stat of the day was that the Chiefs were #2 in the league in takeaways and had won only one game.

The Ball Burglar, of course, was celebrating. Get those takeaways, win ball games. The Ball Burglar celebrated last April when the Bills took Leodis, and the new gang member made his mark on the field in Kansas City.

The Ball Burglar loves those $2000 days. Bills fans are paying close to $400 per takeaway – and they pay extra for takeaways returned for a TD. So that was the equivalent of a six takeaway game.

The Ball Burglar needs you. He doesn’t want to pay $400 per takeaway to help kids with serious illness. He wants to pay $4000. He’s going to do it with $1 from you, $1 from me, $1 from a lot of Bills fans. It’s easy. Go to www.Ballburglar.com, click PLEDGE and make a couple of choices. As the Ball Burglar’s bounty grows, the takeaway totals will grow. The Ball Burglar guarantees it.

7. You just have to get Lee Evans into the game. The guy has the softest hands in the NFL. That catch on the deep ball was beautiful. Full speed, contested, fully extended, and there wasn’t even a hint of a bobble. He wants the ball, he’ll catch the ball, he’ll take hits. One of these days he’s going to take one of those slants to the house. Get him the ball.

8. Is Fred Jackson better than Marshawn Lynch? I don’t think so, but he certainly hits holes more quickly. Marshawn doesn’t pop through the line like Fred does. But Fred can’t carry tacklers like Marshawn can.

Marshawn just wants it. What a player. As much as I’m tired of watching the Bills throw to him in the flat, he does make plays out there, doesn’t he?

I don’t really care who’s better. It’s a very nice one-two combination, so long as the offensive line gives them some room to run. One and two, in whatever order, had themselves a nice day.

9. Did someone say offensive line? I was in a sports bar and couldn’t hear the announcers. But I did notice several close-ups of Jason Peters as penalties were being assessed against the Bills. And Dockery once, too.

I decided not to be too troubled by that. Everyone gets flagged here and there. What the Bills need is run blocking and pass protection, and they’ve been getting it. O-line had a decent day. Needs to be better, but it was a start.

10. As bad as the losing streak looked, I’m now thinking it wasn’t quite all that bad. It’s clear to me now that the Jets are a much better team than I thought. The Bills played them better in Buffalo than the Titans did in Tennessee. The Dolphins are also much better than I thought. And the Pats are pretty good, especially when the refs let Randy Moss hold and push off. The Bills didn’t play well in those games, but they competed. They played those teams better than bad teams play them.

Of course, there’s no excuse for the Browns game. That was just bad.

Good performances by Trent in a couple of these games would have turned losses into wins. Trent’s learning, I hope.

We’ll see which Trent shows up against the 49ers. If Trent and the Bills can put up a good performance, then the Bills will be 7-5 heading into the stretch where they will show how far they’ve actually come. 11-5 or 10-6 is within reach. So is 7-9 or (I can hardly bear to say it) 6-10. I started the season thinking 9-7 would be a successful year. The Bills still should get there.

Welcome to the roller coaster. Enjoy the ride.

Categories
Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 12 Picks

LAST WEEK: 11-4-1 :: OVERALL: 97-62-1

A tie! Has been 6 years since the last time that happened, and this time, it fooled one of the games best quarterbacks. Have you heard that? Eagles QB Donovan McNabb said after the game that he was unaware that a game could end in a tie. Wow. You’d think that one of the premier players in the league might actually know the rules! (Especially when my seven year old knows that!!)

On to the picks for this week…

Cincinnati (1-8) at Pittsburgh (7-3)

Cincinnati was a bit better than expected, but really… no one expected much anyway. So it wasn’t hard. WINNER: Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay (7-3) at Detroit (0-10)

It really does seem this team might go 0-16. WINNER: Tampa Bay

Houston (3-7) at Cleveland (4-6)

Game could go either way, but Houston has been more impressive in their mediocrity this season. WINNER: Houston

San Francisco (3-7) at Dallas (6-4)

Remember when this game was a highlight of the NFL season? WINNER: Dallas

Philadelphia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4)

Philly may not know all the rules, but the Ravens looked awful against another NFC East team last week. WINNER: Philadelphia

Minnesota (5-5) at Jacksonville (4-6)

This could be a really good game… two power running teams, and good defenses. Jags are home. Vikes haven’t overly impressed. WINNER: Jacksonville

New England (6-4) at Miami (6-4)

Do you really think Belichick will lose twice to them in one season? WINNER: New England

Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3)

This game is actually kind of tough to pick. Give the edge to Tennessee because Chicago is starting Rex Grossman. WINNER: Tennessee

Chicago (5-5) at St. Louis (2-8)

St. Louis had three good games… but I don’t expect any more. WINNER: Chicago

NY Jets (7-3) at Tennessee (10-0)

If the J-E-T-S are the “second best” team in the AFC, then the AFC is really, really bad. WINNER: Tennessee

Buffalo (5-5) at Kansas City (1-9)

The Bills finally get a chance to beat up on somebody. WINNER: Buffalo

Oakland (2-8) at Denver (6-4)

Oakland (the players) really is much better than their record, but this game is in Denver (who probably aren’t as good as their record…) WINNER: Denver

Washington (6-4) at Seattle (2-8)

Everyone likes playing the NFC West this year. But I have a funny feeling about this one. WINNER: Seattle

NY Giants (9-1) at Arizona (7-3)

I know the Giants just made the Ravens – a good team – look silly, but I just like the Cards chances. They really do play well at home. (But the Giants play well on the road…) Anyway… WINNER: Arizona

Carolina (8-2) at Atlanta (6-4)

Why are these two teams winning so many games? This one goes to the home team. WINNER: Atlanta

Indianapolis (6-4) at San Diego (4-6)

Manning is just too good to lose to this year’s Chargers. WINNER: Indianapolis

Green Bay (5-5) at New Orleans (5-5)

These teams are both 5-5 for a reason. They’re pretty good, but unpredictable. I’ll probably get this wrong, but going with the home team and the offense. WINNER: New Orleans.

CONCLUSION

Time for the Bills to get back on track. Chiefs defense is really not great… Bills may have gotten the running game untracked… let’s hope it all comes together!

Go Bills!

[Play along at Facebook: Pro Football Picks and join the Buffalo Bills Review league!]