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Bills 27 – Browns 29 – 10 Things I Think

This is a team certifiably in trouble. Trouble is everywhere.

1. As I watched Lindell’s kick, I had none of my usual excitement, enthusiasm, anticipation. For me, the game already was over. The outcome didn’t matter – the Bills were lost. The game wasn’t, but the Bills were.

To be the team I thought the Bills could be, they needed to own this game. A last-second win wasn’t what they needed. What they needed was a game where Trent was taking kneel downs before the two-minute warning. That didn’t happen. That wasn’t even a possibility.

At least for now, the naysayers were right. The Bills need a quarterback. The Bills need a leader. The Bills need a coach.

We aren’t watching a slump. We’re watching a bad football team. Good football teams, even average football teams, don’t lose four in a row. Not in this league. This hasn’t been four weeks of bad breaks, bad calls, untimely injuries. This has been four weeks of bad football.

Of course, now there is virtually no hope of making the playoffs. Mathematics aside, it’s simply laughable to think that a team playing like that could even think about the playoffs.

2. Maybe I need to write a separate 10 Things I Think about the coaching. I don’t even know where to start. Try these:

a. I understand the thinking, but it was a mistake to run the ball three times before Lindell’s miss. I thought so at the time, and it’s completely obvious now. The Bills needed one more first down to run out the clock, to get Lindell within gimme range (kicking at that end of the field is always tough – I’m not sure why the Bills weren’t going the other way in the fourth quarter), and to send a message to Trent that they trusted him. Sitting on the ball said “We’re afraid. We’re afraid we won’t get the first down. We’re afraid we’ll turn it over.” Teams that play scared lose.

b. I don’t know the medical report, but I thought all week it was a mistake to play Whitner. Foolish. That’s not a decision that should be based on emotion; it should be based on what’s right for the season. The Bills needed more than one game to make the playoffs; if they couldn’t win this one with Whitner, they weren’t good enough to go anywhere anyway.

c. The Bills abandoned the cover two so they could blitz more. McGee was on an island all night long; so were Greer and McKelvin. The whole game. The coaches completely changed up the defense. Fine – things aren’t going right, change up. So how do you give up a 70-yard touchdown run with your safeties freed up from double coverage assignments?

d. One play the Bills were in the crawl, or whatever they call that defense when you can’t tell who the down linemen are or who’s coming. Ball’s snapped, several guys rush, the back 7 were COMPLETELY unable to get back into their zones – 17 yards to Braylon Edwards. If they can’t play the defense, don’t use it.

e. We can’t the ball to Evans one time? One time? Some time in that game, with the Bills on defense, the coaches have to talk to Lee and Trent and say, okay, next time we have the ball, this is the play we run. Trent, your keys are a,b,c. Look for a, take the snap, look for b, and then, if Lee hasn’t fallen down, THROW HIM THE BALL. No decent coach lets his stars get taken out of the game all together.

I’ll stop. BUT – I seriously question whether these people know how to make a football team win.

3. I thought McGee was outstanding. He had no help all night against a really good receiver, and against a quarterback who didn’t know how to look for anyone else. McGee gave him nothing deep, and he broke up several of the short balls. Yes, he gave up some catches underneath, but he stopped several too. He took on the task and he delivered exactly what the Bills wanted from him.

4. McKelvin looked pretty good, too. I watched him some of the time, and he looked comfortable. I think it was in part because the Bills were playing so much man, it played to his strength. He didn’t have to worry about his zone assignments. He also got the benefit of playing against an inexperienced QB who seems to think he has only one receiver on the team.

The scouting reports were that Leodis has bad hands. Unfortunately, it may be true – he couldn’t handle the diving interception. Still, he played well.

Kick returns, of course, were spectacular.

5. Lindell had what may have been his worst game as a Bill. He has to make that kick. Almost as bad was the 27-yard kickoff out of bounds. Couple that with Mitchell’s unnecessary roughness penalty, and right there the Bills gave up the field goal that probably cost them the game.

The problem with being a kicker is that you don’t get a lot of chances to make plays. When you do, you MUST deliver. Ryan didn’t.

6. There was a new addition to the “fan experience” at the Stadium that actually helped nullify the home-field advantage. Bills’ management understands that excitement means the stadium is noisy. Against Cleveland, they seemed to think that noise meant excitement; they thought that if they piped in noise, there would be more excitement. During TV timeouts, rock ‘n roll was blaring from the loudspeakers. Really loud. Pretty good music, actually.

The problem was that the Bills often were on defense during those timeouts. The music was so loud that the fans couldn’t make noise. Then ESPN would come back from the commercial, and the Browns were out of the huddle and ready to start the play before the music stopped. So the fans had no opportunity to build the pre-snap noise level while the Browns were in the huddle. The fans had no opportunity to shake up a young quarterback.

Put that together with the fact that general poor play dampened everyone’s enthusiasm, and I’d say that from start to finish the fans were loud for less of this game than any other this season.

7. Trent, of course, was awful. Hasn’t anyone told him that he cannot throw a pass eight feet off the ground directly over the head of a 6’5” defensive lineman? Every defensive lineman is taught to get a hand up, and they deflect or knock down those balls. Is he not looking for those guys? He has to. Otherwise, he gets what he got against the Browns – interceptions and incompletions.

What is really disturbing is that he lost his confidence. Again, I put part of the blame on the coaches – if they have a guy on the field who doesn’t have the courage to make the plays, you have to get him off the field. Simple as that. Maybe it’s only for a game, maybe a season, maybe a career. If the guy is afraid to make the throws, what’s the point of playing him?

You could see it. After the first quarter, he more or less didn’t look downfield.

One time in the fourth quarter, Lee had coverage underneath and on top. He ran 8-10 yards upfield and cut over the middle. The underneath guy was beat. The on-top guy wasn’t going to be able break up a 15 yard completion. He looked like he was open; maybe there was someone else in a shallow zone that I didn’t see. The crowd – get this – the CROWD, including me, yelled “LEE!” You could actually hear what must have been 15,000 people yell “LEE!” Trent didn’t throw it.

Easily his worst performance as a pro. He has regressed badly.

People have begun speculating that the concussion continues to be a factor. Maybe. Whatever; his isn’t playing nearly well enough to win.

8. Among the bad tendencies this defense has:

a. Give up one really long touchdown drive, more or less every game.

b. Give up just enough yards for the opponent to get into field goal range, over and over.

c. Give up a big play.

9. Special teams (except for Lindell) were special. When we really needed, when they finally kicked one to Roscoe – bang! – a big return. As great a McKelvin’s returns were, a lot of the credit goes to the rest of the receiving team. McKelvin was simply a talented return man taking advantage of the opportunities the team continued to present to him. I’m not putting him down, not at all. He did a great job. But mostly what he did was use his speed and ability to change direction to use the space the blockers created for him.

The really cool play was the Browns’ final kickoff. They weren’t going to kick deep to McKelvin – he’d hurt them too badly and they just couldn’t chance it again. April knew it. So what did he do? He had McKelvin deep, Jackson at the 20 and Roscoe at the 40. The Browns did the squib kick. It looked like Roscoe would get it, but it bounced over his head, right into Fred’s arms. Fred took it back for great field position to start the final drive. April knew they wouldn’t take a chance kicking toward the sideline – they had to go up the middle – to Roscoe, Fred or Leodis. Great move.

Special teams delivered great field position all night long.

10. I went to the game with an old friend, a great football fan who hasn’t seen the Bills play much the last two seasons. Early in the game, he asked me if Marshawn was any good. I told him yes. By the end of the game, he was sold.

What a performance! Simply magnificent. The run to set up the last touchdown was one of the best runs I’ve even seen on a football field. Not flashy, not necessarily highlight reel material, but he just kept making something out of nothing, for 30 yards.

And the touchdown run off the short pass! How he knew to cut back into the flow the defense, I do not know. He ran right into harm’s way, but he knew he could get in.

The Bills have been wasting that man’s skills for the better part of one and a half seasons. It was great to see them block well enough to get him going. It was absolutely terrible to watch the Bills waste that performance.

Is the only way the Bills can run the ball is to have the crummiest passing game in the league? Seems like they can only do one thing well per game.

This team needs help. Where they need it is on the sidelines. These are good players, and they should be winning.

See you here next week.

Don’t forget – The Ball Burglar is on the move, even it the Bills aren’t getting takeaways. We’re closing in on $400 per takeaway. Add your buck or two for every takeaway at www.Ballburglar.com. Thanks.

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Uncategorized

I’m not suggesting Losman is the answer, but Edwards seems to suck

Before I start the QB debate up again, I thought I’d touch on a few points about this team.

1. This team is not a playoff team. The defense could be in the playoffs as could the special teams, but this offense has no place in the playoffs. However if they win the rest of their games, they still have a decent shot at a wild card.

2. No. Coach contracts are not binding. Jauron could be fired tomorrow with no penalty. I doubt that the Bills will do it, but Jauron has no job security regardless of whether there was a contract extension.

3.Last night the Bills showed what it would be like if they had an effective offensive line. Clearly they have the runningback talent and need not worry there. But don’t get excited about the line being good again, the Browns have a horrible defense. The Bills line will look good against Kansas City too, but will suck again when they face better teams. This is still a concern area.

4. Bobby April has what it takes to be a head coach. The Bills team needs a fire lit under it and if they were to make a mid-season move to fire Jauron (which they won’t), April would be the ideal guy to promote as interim and hopefully as the permanent coach (Marv was a Special teams guy first too, Special Teams is tough to coach because you are constantly getting your personnel jerked around). One way to smooth this transition would be to move Jauron into a director of Pro Personnel position. I think Jauron has done a great job finding talented players and is a benefit to the organization, but not at head coach.

5. The much maligned 2008 draft class is starting to show signs of life. Fans should give these young players a bit more than half a season before they call them busts.

6. Marshawn Lynch is clearly talented but needs to stick to the play more. He contributed to the missed field goal on the last play prior to the kick by trying to roll it out to the left side. He didn’t get any additional yards, but did cause the ball to be positioned on the far left hash (most likely spot to kick wide right from). Had he stuck to the play it would have been an easier kick for Lindell. The play call was up the middle for a reason.

7. I don’t think you can blame the coaches for bad play calling when there are wide open receivers that the QB didn’t try to throw to. Lee Evans was wide open most of the day but never even had a ball thrown to him. The coaches on this team call effective plays pretty often but the team fails to execute. So it really comes back to the coaches failing to get the team prepared for the game.

And so it comes down to the Quarterback. Once again. Trent Edwards has stunk pretty bad for most of the season, putting up small yards and few TDs even when he was playing his best. People seem to be determined to make every excuse for the kid, but the bottom line is that Edwards is Trent Dilfer good, or maybe Chad Pennington good. Not Tom Brady, Joe Montana or any of the other rediculous comparisons that have been drawn. Hand picking the stats of 3 or 4 great Quarterbacks and assuming Edwards will be good because his first 16 games were similar is actually pretty rediculous. One need only look at Cleveland’s Derek Anderson to know that 1 season does not make a career no matter how good your stats are. There are a great many more failed quarterbacks who had similar first year stats than successful ones. All that aside, Edwards stats aren’t even that good.

Could all of you folks out there who think Trent Edwards is the second coming of Montana please explain why? Even when he was playing his best, his numbers were average. His only impressive stat is completion percentage, which really doesn’t matter that much if most of the passes are so short that they are followed by a punt. Here are Trent’s career numbers with some notable extras:
Trent Edwards Career: 331 for 540 (61.3%), 3623 yards, 10.945 yards per completion, 6.7 yards per attempt, TDs 15 INTs 18 Sack 32, Rating 76.5
In 20 Starts (and a some assorted other playing time) Edwards has 2 games with more than one TD (miami 2007 he had 4, and Giants 2007 he had 2, which means in his other 18 games he had 9 TD passes, or half a TD per game).
Trent Edwards has never thrown for 300 yards in a contest.
Edwards has thrown for less than 200 yards 12 times. Or 60% of the time.
Edwards has thrown more INTs than TDs in 9 games (nearly half)
Edwards has had a QB rating below 60 in 6 games.
Edwards had ALL DAY to throw against the Browns and still sucked it up.
Edwards worst performances have been against division opponents (particularly the pats) and in cold weather. He has not had a good performance yet in cold weather.

To add fuel to the fire, Here are JP Losman’s career numbers:
510 for 858 (59.4%) 5847 yards, 11.46 yards per completion, 6.82 yards per attempt, TDs 32 INT 30, Sack 93, Rating 77.9
In other words, Losman is better in every category except completion percentage (where he is actually very close) and sacks which are as much a reflection of the miserable offensive line the first couple years of Losman’s career than anything.
Losman had a 101.3 QB rating in his only appearance this season (most of the arizona game) despite how he “looked in the pocket”. San Diego and Jacksonville were the only two games where Edwards broke 100 QB rating.
Losman has had 7 Multi TD games and broke 300 yards in 2 games. He has also thrown for under 200 yards 22 times out of 32.

I don’t know that Losman is the answer, but if the problem with Losman was that he struggled with his short passes, that’s a lot easier to fix than Edwards inability to throw beyond 10 yards. Yes he has pulled it off on a few rare occasions, but you will never see that beautiful rainbow shaped arc to Evans from Edwards. He can’t even find him. At least you knew Losman would hit the number 1 receiver. The biggest difference between these two QBs is that when the pass rush gets in their face, Edwards tries to hold his ground while Losman starts running (sometimes with disastrous consequences). What is missing in Losman’s game is teachable and can come with time, there is no reason to think Edwards will magically get arm strength and accuracy beyond 10 yards.

The other “big” difference is that fans seem to think Edwards has (had?) great pocket presence, or the intangible aspect of football. It looked that way at first but it would be hard to say that about him after the last 4 weeks. He has looked confused even when he has tons of time. He misses open receivers, doesn’t go through his progressions. Maybe its because of the concussion, but more likely it is merely because he is inexperienced and, at this point, not very good. Edwards may look more in control in the pocket, but the bottom line is this, give Losman 50 plays and Edwards 50 plays and Losman will gain more yards and throw more TDs.

More likely, the answer lies in the draft, or in free agency, this crop of QB’s has a long way to go. A few wins against weak teams is nothing to be excited about.

Email your comments to bplewak@buffalobillsreview.com

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Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 11 Picks

LAST WEEK: 10-4 :: OVERALL: 86-58

Another full week for me has made me question how I ever thought I could post an NFL picks article every week? 🙂 But, here are the picks I made for week eleven. Week ten went very well, and week eleven is off to a good start (1-0) … maybe this is the week I go 16-0? Let’s hope so!

Here are the picks:

NY Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3)
Denver (5-4) at Atlanta (6-3)
Baltimore (6-3) at NY Giants (8-1)
Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3)
Oakland (2-7) at Miami (5-4)
Detroit (0-9) at Carolina (7-2)
Philadelphia (5-4) at Cincinnati (1-8)
Chicago (5-4) at Green Bay (4-5)
New Orleans (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8)
Houston (3-6) at Indianapolis (5-4)
St. Louis (2-7) at San Francisco (2-7)
Arizona (6-3) at Seattle (2-7)
Tennessee (9-0) at Jacksonville (4-5)
San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3)
Dallas (5-4) at Washington (6-3)
Cleveland (3-6) at Buffalo (5-4)

CONCLUSION

A couple games of interest in week 11… definitely Baltimore at NY Giants (a Super Bowl rematch) should be a great defensive game. I expect the Ravens to stun NFL fans by pulling out the victory there. In previous years, Tennessee at Jacksonville would be a great game, I just don’t know which Jags team will show up. Obviously the MNF game is exciting to Bills fans… will we finally see another Bills win? Dallas @ Washington features the return of Tony Romo… should be a good game. Also, San Diego at Pittsburgh could be an exciting AFC matchup.

But in the end… all that needs to be said is…

Go Bills!

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AFC East Schedule

AFC East: Best Division in Football?

If you just look at records, a good argument can be made for the AFC East being the best division in football. Tonight’s battle for first place between the Jets and Patriots being decided by a field goal in overtime is evidence of just how good all the teams in this division might be.

It’s conceivable that at the end of this weekend the Jets could have a one-game lead over all three other teams in the division. And it doesn’t stop there. Take a look at the remaining games for each of the four teams:

(Remaining Opponent’s Records in Parentheses)
JETS: @ Ten, Den, @ SF, Buf, @ Sea, Mia (28-25)
PATS: @ Mia, Pit, @ Sea, @ Oak, Ari, @ Buf (25-28)
FINS: Oak, NE, @ StL, @ Buf (Tor), SF, @ KC, @ NYJ (20-34)
BILLS: Cle, @ KC, SF, Mia (Tor), @ NYJ, @ Den, NE (22-32)

The Dolphins would seem to have the easiest remaining schedule of all four of the teams. But they also have four remaining road games, as do the Patriots. The Bills have three actual road games left, but most consider one of the remaining home games a virtual away game, as it will be played in Toronto, Canada.

A quick glance at the remaining schedules, taking into account how the four teams have played so far, it is not unreasonable to say that each team in this division could actually finish with ten wins!

The Jets already have seven, and they play Denver at home (whose defense is horrendous), and road games against two of the NFC West teams that currently sport 2 wins and 7 losses. Those games alone should get them to ten wins on the season.

The Patriots have been playing really well under their fill-in quarterback. (And their fill-in running backs, for that matter.) They should be favored to win their two West coast road games against Oakland and Seattle. The other five games could be tough, but it would be hard to see the Patriots losing three of those five.

While it is just incredible that the Dolphins actually have a winning record 10 weeks into the season, they have earned it. They are playing hard, and they are using the talent they have to its fullest potential. Don’t expect that to stop. They get to play Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City and San Francisco. It’s still a little hard to believe, but, the team who had one win last season should win all four of those. That is nine wins, and it seems the Fins might grab one of the three division games they have remaining.

The Bills have their share of “easy” opponents as well, starting with the Cleveland Browns this Monday. The Browns have been up and down all year, but do not have a very strong defense, and are starting a quarterback who has only played one NFL game. The home-field advantage on Monday Night, coupled with the Bills fired up to break out of this 3-game losing streak should give the Bills the win this week, and then they have Kansas City and San Francisco, as well as a game against the Broncos who have struggled. That would give them, quite possibly, 10 wins on the season.

Factoring in what we know now, I’m predicting the division will end up like this:

NY Jets 11-5
Buffalo 11-5
New England 9-7
Miami 9-7

I know I said that everyone could have 10 wins, but honestly I think the Dolphins and Patriots will have a harder time reaching that goal. Although, it is very, very possible. And, the only way the Bills end up with 11 wins is if they rediscover their run game, and bring balance back to their offense. (A little pass rush wouldn’t hurt either!)

The division goes to the Jets (even if the Bills win the rematch) thanks to their likely 4-2 division record (beating Miami in the final game of the season) with the best possible AFC East record for the Bills being 3-3.

That three-game winless stretch against the East was a crushing blow, even with a half-season remaining.

But in the end, a division with a 40-24 record would be pretty amazing. Considering last year (even with the historic 16-0 Patriots) the division was a meager 28-36!

This race should come down to the final weekend with both AFC East matchups playing a crucial role in the Division title and the Wild Card berth.

That is why they play the games!

(Footnote: The final division standing above could be quite different if the Pats beat the Steelers (I think Pittsburgh should win), and if the Dolphins can beat the Jets in the final game of the season. If that happens, it could be like this:

Buffalo 11-5
Miami 10-6
New England 10-6
NY Jets 10-6

Not sure who would win the tie-breakers between NY and NE. Head-to-head, Division, and Conference records would likely be the same. It’s gonna be a fun finish! End footnote.)

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Uncategorized

Bills 10 – Pats 20 – 10 Things I Think

Well, that was bad, but not as bad as I feared.

1. First to last in the division in three weeks. Lose three division games while all three teams in the division are going 3-0. That’s as bad a stretch as you can have. The only possible good news is that the division may actually be stronger than I thought. Maybe the Jets are one of the really good teams in the league. I think the Pats are very good. The Bills played them both close.

How’s that for looking for a silver lining? But it may be true.

Even though the Bills played them close, they never seemed to be in the games. This team needs help; it has players but it needs help.

2. The defense. The defense isn’t bad. It just isn’t all that good. It’s 14th in the league in pass defense, and they gave the Pats just over the average yards the Bills are giving up. It’s 12th in the league in rushing defense, and they gave up a little more rushing yards than the Pats, one of the league’s good running teams, ordinarily gets. They’re 13th in the league in scoring defense, and they gave up less than their average to the Pats. And the numbers are much better than last season; 31st in yards per game last year, 14th this year. 18th in points per game last year.

The fact is, on Sunday this defense performed on its averages, more or less, on the road against a good team.

The problem is that this defense doesn’t make plays. One takeaway isn’t enough, for the Bills or for the Ball Burglar. The two most important drives of the game – after the opening kickoff, and after the punt in the fourth quarter, the defense could not get off the field. Winning teams need someone to step up at important times in the game. It happened early in the season, but now that the games really count, it isn’t happening.

I don’t think it’s the injuries. Whitner doesn’t get the Bills off the field. Schobel doesn’t.

This defense is loaded with players who are good at playing their positions, but none of them ever does more than that. Every team needs more some of the time, and the Bills need more. Nobody is giving it to them.

3. Looks like what the coaches were saying about McKelvin is right. He’s a serious return man. It was particularly nice to see him break one when it counted. You can say it was garbage time if you want, but the Pats play 60 minutes. The only way the Pats were going to lose that game at that point was to give up a big kick return, so McKelvin’s return wasn’t because the Pats weren’t paying attention. It was a quality return, as was the earlier return.

Before people start screaming that a first round pick has to do more, well, yes, but it’s still early. He’s learning. McGee returned kicks well before he played corner well, too.

4. Trying to stay positive: the offensive line is starting to look more like last year’s offensive line. That is, they protect the quarterback pretty well. They gave up two sacks, and Trent got hit a few times, but by and large Trent had time. Against a clever Pats defense, they did a nice job.

But they can’t run block. Can’t. Pitiful. Those are good running backs the Bills put back there. Every bit as good as running backs on the best teams. Every bit as good as BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Both of our backs gain yards, when they have SOMEPLACE to go.

Individual plays that troubled me: Dockery and Peters got absolutely scorched on a stunt the Pats ran. The Bills get beaten on stunts all the time. They can’t slide and find the man coming around. They haven’t done it all year. In the Giants-Eagles game, I saw what I think was the RIGHT guard pull and run behind the line of scrimmage outside the LEFT tackle to pick up a defensive tackle who was looping all the way around the defensive line. Dockery and Peters couldn’t simply hand off two payers side by side.

Chambers got mowed down on one play shown on the replays – completely off balance and leveraged.

Peters had his obligatory penalty.

The Bills have to do something about the line. They haven’t solved this problem.

5. Trent is a second-year quarterback. The first INT was really poorly thrown. Did he misjudge the wind? The second INT, as they showed on the replay, was a play where he read the defense wrong. I’d guess Belichick drew that one up. Trent has to learn to see the field better. He will. Plus, every QB makes mistakes. McNabb made his fair share last night. Favre did against the Bills. You’re going to make mistakes. But Trent still has to play better.

What troubled me more was that his accuracy abandoned him Threw behind Hardy. Threw behind Roscoe. Led Marshawn too much in the flat.

And he threw too late to Royal on a big third down.

Trent isn’t getting it done. That’s okay if he’s learning. Jauron says he is. I’m from Missouri.

6. The entire offense did not get it done. For the third consecutive week, the offense was anemic. Not enough sustained drives, not enough points. 10 points a game does not win.

7. Hardy is like a lot of tall receivers running after the catch – he doesn’t. Moss, Burress, even Owens, go down easily. That third down pass Hardy caught might have been a first down if he would just turn upfield, running hard and driving into the tackler. He didn’t do that, and probably never will. He isn’t Josh Reed. But that’s not why the Bills drafted him. (By the way, I’m sure the Bills miss Reed. Reed is one of those guys who makes plays in crunch time.)

Hardy’s TD was sweet. Nice plays by Trent and Hardy. Too little, too late, but a nice play and something to build on.

8. Violence. Give me some violence. I have to believe that these players can hit people with authority, instead of simply executing picture-book tackles. This is a violent game, and violent players make winners. I’m not seeing much violence. Watch the Giants-Eagles. Watch the Colts-Steelers. Our guys are trying to make tackles. Their guys are trying to make hits.

The best hit by the Bills all day was Simpson’s hit on Moss. By the way, compare the unnecessary roughness penalty on that hit to the non-call when Wilfork mowed down Edwards after Edwards released a pass. It was, in my mind, the same play – defender going full speed about to apply the hit (in Simpson’s case, not knowing whether Moss would get his hands on the ball). Defender follows through with the hit. One team got flagged.

9. I have to ask if these coaches know how to win. As each goes by, it becomes more clear that the coaches are the weak link.

I have to believe that there is a way to get Marshawn and Fred the ball in space.

I have to believe that there is a way find Hardy more than once a game.

I have to believe these offensive linemen actually can move the defense.

I have to believe that the offense can be tricked up some way from week, rather than looking so absolutely predictable.

I have to believe that the defense can attack the offense, some way, some how. I have to believe they can be more aggressive, they can blitz (when’s the last time the Bills brought a DB on the pass rush?).

I have to believe that the Bills can play with the kind of heart that it takes to actually WIN important games, not just stay within a touchdown or so of the winner.

Here’s what I saw in the paper this morning:

Jauron said “They’re a very, very talented team, a well-coached team, and they beat us.”

Every week Jauron says we have to eliminate mistakes and get better. Well, maybe he needs to watch that game again. The Bills didn’t lose on mistakes – the Bills lost because series after series, the Pats were better. They made runs, they found open receivers, they stopped runs. They were better. The Bills need to be better.

In his Monday press conference Jauron said it’s a tough division, because all three teams play the 3-4; they give you a lot of different looks and it’s difficult to adjust. Well, if that’s true, why is it that the Bills are playing this passive 4-3 that Tom Brady – er, no, that wasn’t Tom Brady – and Brett Favre and Chad Pennington can pick apart? I mean, I don’t know which is a better defense, but if you want me to believe that it’s tough to win against a 3-4, I’d like to know why we aren’t in it.

Dick is talking about how good the other guys are. I’m concerned that Dick doesn’t get it. Hey, at least Mora would scream “PLAYOFFS?? PLAYOFFS???” and Singletary would drop his pants. Dick says “We played hard. They’re a good football team.” Well, I say screw that. Who cares if you played hard and you LOST? Everyone plays hard. The point is to make the OTHER guy say “the Bills are a good football team.”

One of my favorite quotes is attributed to George Patton. It’s something like this: “No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country.” Fortunately, people aren’t dying on football fields. Unfortunately, for the Bills, it feels like they are. They need a general out front leading them. I don’t see Jauron in that role.

Kawika Mitchell said: “We thought we were on the verge of changing the culture around the clubhouse. It comes down to believing you can beat your guy out there in every situation, and the last three weeks I’m not sure we’ve had that.” He will not throw his coach under the bus. Maybe the players on their own can get themselves to the emotional place where they need to be, but I think they need a coach who says more than “we need to get better.”

10. Contrast Jauron with Belichick, who I believe is the best coach in the history of football. Look at this quote from Ellis Hobbs: “We know how to prepare. We know how to make adjustments on the fly. We know how to handle the pressure.”
James Sanders (safety) said: “We were a very physical team today. We kept everything in front of us, beat up their receivers and our front seven stopped the run.”

What are we, punching bags. Do the Bills go out on the field so other teams can beat them up?

Belichick gets the entire game. His guys play with heart, desire, violence and intelligence. The Bills play with heart and probably desire. The Patriots look prepared every week; the Bills have looked prepared once in the last five games.

Now, everyone has trouble beating Belichick, so I’m not totally depressed. Right now I’m wondering if Jauron can beat anyone.

Okay, for the fourth week in a row, the Bills face a big game. A lot is on the line. I hope the fans will be into it, but I’ll certainly understand if they’re a little hesitant. The Bills haven’t been giving them much to cheer about.

Ball Burglar Totals: 12 takeaways so far this year, with two returned for touchdowns. The Burglar’s Bounty is up over $360 per takeaway – that’s over $6,800 raised for charity this year. All raised by Bills fans like you and me, pledging a buck or two for every takeaway the Bills get. Add your buck to the total today – just go to http://www.ballburglar.com/, click “Pledge” and follow the directions. It’ll only take a minute, and you’ll be glad you did. Thanks.

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Uncategorized

Hi, I am Dave Drake and I am a Bill’s fan…

The 12 steps to fix our slump:

1. Admit that we are powerless over losing and our play is unmanageable (Yes, Jason Peters you must admit we are not a good running team).
2. Came to believe that a new head coach could restore our winning ways.
3. Make a decision to turn our playbooks over to proven successful coaches.
4. Make a searching and fearless moral inventory of our over-paid underperforming starters.
5. Admit to the commish, the fans the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to let a new head coach remove the defects of our football team.
7. Humbly ask Mr. President to remove this team’s shortcomings.
8. Made a list of all the fans we had harmed and make amends to them. (This would be done by a playoff berth.)
9. Made direct amends to such fans wherever possible (like winning a Super Bowl).
10. Continue to take team inventory and when we hire bad coaches and draft bad players admit we were wrong and promptly get rid of them.
11. Sought through hard hitting and big plays to improve our division record.
12. Having had a organizational transformation we tried to carry this message to fans who desperately want to win a Super Bowl.

Categories
Greg's Weekly Picks

Greg’s NFL Week 10 Picks

LAST WEEK: 7-7 :: OVERALL: 76-54

This is a bit late getting out this week, but it has been one of the busiest weeks in recent memory. In fact, we’re so late that one of these games has already passed… and I’m already 0-1!!! (I’m not sure it’s a wise move to place any wagers based on my predicted NFL outcomes….) 🙂

Here’s a quick peak at Week 10 of the NFL season!

Buffalo (5-3) at New England (5-3)

Two of the three first-place AFC East teams square off in a stadium in which the Bills have never been victorious (0-6 at Gillette stadium) and the Pats have won 9 in a row against the Bills, and 14 of the last 15. It has definitely been a one-sided match for quite a while. The Bills have been close in many of those games, but have never managed to win. But as predicted pre-season, the Bills are poised to break that streak. They know that if they want to be a playoff team, they have to beat the Pats. Injuries will make that harder, but the Pats are banged up themselves. Look for a strong running game (first of the season) and a win in the turnover column… translating to a big Bills victory! WINNER: Buffalo.

Denver (4-4) at Cleveland (3-4)

It’s obviously too late to be “predicting” this one, but you’ll notice that my prediction was, in fact, wrong. This was a difficult game to predict as the Browns were starting a “rookie” QB in Brady Quinn, but on the other hand, the Broncos have been playing pretty poorly – particularly on defense. So, I went with the home team, who actually led most of the game, but in the end, Denver won 34-30. Nice come back. Too bad for me. 0-1 to start the week. WINNER: Cleveland

Baltimore (5-3) at Houston (3-5)

Really great defense vs. a pretty good offense, and probably a better overall team, who play well at home… but I gotta go with the amazingly strong defense. Home or away, doesn’t matter. WINNER: Baltimore

St. Louis (2-6) at NY Jets (5-3)

I really want to pick the Rams. We (Bills fans) need the Rams to win, that’d be great. But the Jets are just a better team, and should pull out the victory at home, barring some sort of implosion. WINNER: NY Jets

Green Bay (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4)

Green Bay should have beaten Tennessee last week, and though this division contest should be tough… expect Green Bay to get the win. WINNER: Green Bay

Seattle (2-6) at Miami (4-4)

Seattle is bad. Unfortunately for Bills fans… Miami – playing at home – goes a game above .500 this week! WINNER: Miami

Jacksonville (3-5) at Detroit (0-8)

Jacksonville just can’t lose a third straight game that they are supposed to win. WINNER: Jacksonville

Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3)

This game is actually kind of tough to pick. Give the edge to Tennessee because Chicago is starting Rex Grossman. WINNER: Tennessee

New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3)

Another division game. Very tough to call, but let’s go with red-hot Atlanta at home. WINNER: Atlanta

Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6)

One of these teams is much better than the other… WINNER: Carolina

Kansas City (1-7) at San Diego (3-5)

Same as above… San Diego has just not been playing up to par. Still… WINNER: San Diego

Indianapolis (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2)

As much as I’ll be rooting for Indy in this game… Pittsburgh is just too tough for this weakened Colts team. WINNER: Pittsburgh

NY Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia (5-3)

It actually surprises me how many people are picking the Eagles in this game. Westbrook is great, but the Giants team is better. WINNER: NY Giants

San Francisco (2-6) at Arizona (5-3)

This is the Monday night game?? Singletary doesn’t get his first win yet. Arizona wins. WINNER: Arizona

CONCLUSION

Lots of big divisional games this week. The season is more than half over, and stuff is starting to get interesting!

Go Bills! Beat the Pats!

[Play along at Facebook: Pro Football Picks and join the Buffalo Bills Review league!]

Categories
BBR Guys Contests Fun

Another Chicken Wing Wager

Buffalo chicken wingsHello everyone. As mentioned on our show, John and I discussed wager possibilities and we settled on the following:

  • If the Bills lose by THREE TOUCHDOWNS (21 pts) or more to the Pats on Sunday 11/9, then Greg buys John wings.
  • If the Bills DO NOT lose by 21 pts or more, John buys Greg wings.

(21 pts?? Really???)

John’s prediction was that the Pats would actually win by 27 (37-10) so, 21 will be easy. (Ha!)

My point (Greg) is that we have no business suiting up for any of our remaining games in 2008 if we lose a game that we absolutely MUST win, against a team with at least as many injuries as we have, and who the Bills are at least as good as…. if we lose that game by TWENTY ONE POINTS???? That would be a disgrace.

So, I’d bet on me collecting some chicken wings on another silly, pessimistic prediction involving our Buffalo Bills. 🙂

Go Bills! Score me some wings! 🙂

Categories
Uncategorized

Bills 17-Jets 26 – 10 Things I Like

Okay, listen up: This week I’m writing 10 Things I LIKE about the Bills (with some things I don’t like in parentheses).

Why am I writing 10 Things I LIKE? Because I can’t keep writing the same thing over and over. Last week, my first four things were (1) the offense clearly lost this game, (2) the passing game clearly lost this game, (3) quarterback is the most important position on the team, and Trent Edwards clearly didn’t get it done, (4) minimize mistakes. If you want to read about why the Bills lost to the Jets, read last week’s 10 Things. (And don’t tell me the defense lost the game. Yes, there were no sacks, yes there weren’t enough takeaways, yes, the defense didn’t stop the Pats after Jabari’s INT. I don’t care. The offense gave away 10 points. GAVE AWAY. The defense gave up less than 300 yards, gave up 16 points and scored 7. All the offense had to do is hold on to the ball and kick two field goals instead of throwing an INT for a touchdown and failing on 4th and 1. This defense is 10th in the league in yards per game and 13th in the league in points per game. 16 points allowed is enough to win a game in the NFL. The Bills can win with this defense.)

Here you go – 10 things I LIKE:

1. I like Trent Edwards. I like him. I like his brains, his size his mobility, his delivery. I like his potential.

After several games playing on another planet, Trent Edwards now has returned to his second season in the NFL. This was his second straight game with his inexperience showing. He needed two time outs in the first half when he was confused by the defense. He needed another in the second half, and he took a delay of game penalty. Some of the sacks were his fault, waiting too long to make a decision. The worst was late in the game, when he took a sack instead of leading Lee to the open part of the end zone. He knew he had to get rid of it, Lee had a half step on his man running across the end zone – hang it out there, Trent, and get the score or an incompletion.

The interception, of course, was a disaster. Great drive followed by an awful decision. He was looking right at the defense. Never should have thrown that ball. Never should have thrown the ugly one to Roscoe when he was double or triple or quadruple teamed. What was he doing? A month ago Trent wasn’t throwing those balls.

The fumble looked like it was McIntyre’s blown assignment on the blitz.

The final INT was badly under thrown. Hardy beat his man. The only way NOT to get the TD on that play was to under throw it, and that’s what Trent did. Yes Hardy could have broken it up – he made a good play on it, but not good enough. But the mistake was Trent’s, not Hardy’s.

91.3 passer rating on the day. Trent’s doing a lot right. He looks good. But he has a lot to learn, like any other second year QB. If Trent makes the plays a good quarterback should, the Bills beat the Jets. If the Bills and Jets had traded quarterbacks last Monday, the Bills would have won the game.

I said at the beginning of the season that 2009 is when the Bills should be good. Trent will be a real NFL quarterback next year. Right now, he’s still learning. I like Trent.

2. I like Jabari Greer. Best comment of this or any other game was Phil Simms inviting us to watch Greer’s footwork on the interception. “Looks like they’re doing dance steps.” And when you watched, it was exactly that. What a play.

You’re going to get beat at corner back on some plays. But he doesn’t get beat much. What a player.

3. I like Marshawn Lynch. Give him the ball when you need a yard. He always gets it for you. He did it again yesterday. Too bad he wasn’t able to go when the Bills were fourth and 1 in the red zone. He would have gotten it, somehow. And that’s no knock on Fred Jackson, who had another nice game (except for a his drop on the screen pass).

Marshawn running the length of the field on the interception: who else thought of Don Beebe?

The man has the heart of a champion. His offensive linemen are letting him down. (Time’s up; the offensive line rebuild has to be declared a failure. Yes, Butler is out, but I don’t care – if your offensive line is anchored by three guys who are making, or are about to make, millions of dollars to play the position, that should be enough to open an occasional hole for the running backs. Peters, Dockery and Walker should be enough for this line to be decent. They could not convert a crucial fourth and one – how many times have we seen Peters and Dockery fail to get any kind of push in critical short-yardage situations? They could not give the running backs any room to run. They could not protect Trent. The Jets do have one of the best pass rushes in the league, but they aren’t averaging FIVE a game. Jenkins is a monster, but he shouldn’t consistently beat double teams.)

4. I like Paul Posluszny. He’s around the ball. He’s a solid tackler. He’s still in his rookie year as a middle linebacker in the NFL.

He has the same heart beating in him that Marshawn has. Was it Poz and Marshawn who found each other at the combine and were raggin on each other a bit? Wasn’t that the story after the draft? Those guys and Trent are the future of this team.

5. I like Bryan Scott. I liked what I saw every time he got on the field last season, and I still like it. I like how he tackles. If we’ve lost Donte with is injury, Scott will make plays for the Bills. The problem won’t be Scott. It’ll be who’s at the nickel spot.

6. I’ve always liked the idea of Derek Fine, and I liked what I saw on the field. When the Bills drafted Fine, JayHawk, a long-time poster on the message boards at BuffaloBills.com, said he was a guy to watch. All he does is make plays. You could see it in how Fine got open and how Fine caught the ball.

I didn’t notice whether he was playing special teams against the Jets – he was a star special teamer at Kansas. But it was easy to notice him on offense.

I’m guessing he’ll be a better blocker than Schouman – who had a real nice block, by the way, when Marshawn bulled his way for a first down – and he’ll be a better receiver than Royal – who despite the brutal verbal beatings Bills fans have been administering lately was very effective in the passing game against the Jets. Derek Fine is a worker. He gets all the mechanics right. He’s a guy who will take advantage of opportunities on the field.

7. I like the Ball Burglar. Why? Because in the midst of that depressing outing, when Jabari took the ball and made the return, as hope was being rekindled, as all of the excitement of Buffalo Bills football was coming back, I could smile with pride knowing Jabari had just cost me another $2 – $1 for the takeaway and $1 for touchdown. Bills fans added over $600 to the Ball Burglar’s takeaway bounty with that play, and it all helps the kids.

Takeaways matter. Kids matter. The Ball Burglar is all about kids and takeaways.

8. I like Terence McGee. He wasn’t right last week, but he’s back. I loved the mini-flanker screen where Terence fought the blocker for three, four seconds before finally slipping the block and making the tackle. He’s smart, tough and a team player.

Okay, I’m running low. (I don’t know anything about coaching. I don’t understand Xs and Os. I don’t know how to motivate players. I do know what I see. One thing I see is that this team doesn’t know how to win. It looked like they knew earlier in the season, but the first six games are almost like preseason. November and December is when the big boys play, and the Bills have yet to stand up and be counted with the big boys. I watched the Giants and Steelers last week, and I watched the Colts and Pats last night. There is a level of hitting going on when the big boys play – serious hitting – that is absent from Bills games. If the Bills don’t increase their aggression next week, they will get run out of the ballpark.

One more thing: Turk Schoenert, time to step it up. Something’s gotta happen on offense, baby. You and your offensive coaches have your jobs on the line.)

9. I like the Bills’ nucleus of players. I’ve said for two years that the Bills are building for 2009, that the base would be more or less complete in 2008, that the draft and free agency in 2009 and beyond will be about putting the finishing touches on a team to make a championship run. I still think that’s true. The Bills have their quarterback, their running back and their middle linebacker. They have the core of their entire defense. They still need work on the offensive line, and they need a receiver to emerge or be acquired.

A Buffalo News article explained that with the salary cap, teams can afford only 13 to 15 high priced players. The Bills have theirs. A few will be replaced with newcomers, but the core of the team that will make a championship run is here.

10. I like the Bills’ logo. That flying Bison, those colors. Love it. Love it every time I see it on a bumper sticker, a sweat shirt, a flag. Love it. Even today.

Hard not to be down after a showing like that. The Pats will smell blood on Sunday. Could be the Bills last chance to prove they’re for real.

GO BILLS!!!

Categories
Current Bills Games

Open Letter to the Buffalo Bills

To Whom It May Concern
Re: The recent Bills slump
From: A concerned Bills Fan

A recent series of events has led me to compose this letter to you, as it seems you may be in need of some outside guidance. I have been a fan and long-time supporter of your organization, dating back a couple decades now, and though I concede that you have more knowledge and experience in the proverbial “Xs” and “Os” of your profession, I do have a few recommendations that might be worth your consideration, and perhaps would improve the results of your weekly efforts.

First, congratulations on the fantastic beginning to this season. 4-0 is nothing to sneeze at, nor is 5-1 following a superb, complete victory over a very fine football team in the San Diego Chargers. In the first six games, and perhaps that game in particular, what I saw as an outside onlooker seemed to be a never-say-die attitude, and a strong desire (and confidence) on every play and on every series and in every quarter. You looked like winners.

The same can not be said of the past two games.

Every team experiences “slumps.” That is the nature of sport. One team wins, and another loses. The difference between the two is minor in detail, but feels much more “major” on the scoreboard and in the standings. Lately, besides poor execution on a handful of plays (which may or may not have impacted the final score of those games) there has been – to me – a significant shift in attitude.

Mind you, I am not talking about work-ethic or effort put forth on the field each play. I am only talking about the mindset, the “aura”… that apparent confidence and swagger that this team had early in the 2008 season that they were not only good enough to win, and that they could win, but that they were going to win. After a sloppy start in Miami (coupled with a tremendous start by their team) your team – the Bills – seemed to be hesitant, tentative, pushing, and … playing not to lose.

Sometimes, in a slump, no matter how hard you try not to lose, you still lose. In hockey, you can generate all the chances you used to have, but they ring off the goal post, or the goalie stands on his head to make a save he wouldn’t normally make. In baseball, your best hitters grip the bat a little tighter, and end up with stats worse than the guys who are usually at the bottom of your stat sheet. In basketball, even for your best player, the hoop can seemingly shrink to one size smaller than the ball itself.

But every team breaks out of a slump. It usually takes one thing going your way. I honestly thought it might be that ill-advised pass by Brett Favre yesterday. After so many things not going your way, I thought that might turn it around. But, giving credit to them, they put together a drive that finished off the game.

Slumps are very difficult to work yourself out of. Often, that makes it worse. In playing to break out of the slump (read: to not lose) your game gets tighter, your attitude shifts to a negative rather than a confident, positive swagger… and in tightening up, you lose.

This week, please remember that you are basically the same team that started this season. Every team deals with injuries, bad calls (both by your staff and the officiating crew) and other “breaks” that eventually balance out. But you can only control yourself. And mainly, you can only control your attitude. That attitude needs to be shifted back to the quiet confidence that you can – and will – win the game.

We’re back to one game at a time (not three division games, not five crucial conference games, just the game in front of you). There is a big game in six days and you all know you can win it. At least, you used to know that.

This week, work on fundamentals to be sure. Work hard in practice and work to correct mistakes from the past two games. Come up with a great game plan that uses your strengths and exploits their weaknesses. Those things all must be done. But most of all, as a team, remember that you can – and will – win the game when you take the field.

Next chance, 1:00pm on Sunday, November 9th.