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I Hate It When I Am Right :)

It is time for all you JP lovers to go back to season 1 of the BBR and listen to my comments on JP…

My question: Can we stick a fork in this guy and call him done?

Personally, I think JP should bench himself. He put himself on notice this week and performed horribly. Again no one on this team played well (except A-Train and Roscoe), but that does not take JP off the hook. From the int’s, bad throws to wide open receivers, and the fumble JP better be done in Buffalo. I was fine with throwing the NE game away, but not the Jags game. Against a playoff bound team JP needed to shine or at least not lose the game. His turnovers costed us dearly…

10-21 that is JP’s record in Buffalo. Throw away every other stat. The only one that matters is wins and losses. Enough said.

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Fire Tyke Tolbert

At 5-4 the Buffalo Bills are doing better in 2007 than they have in a long time. Despite complaints about the coaching staff, a rash of injuries and a miserably ineffective offense, somehow this team has a winning record and the second longest winning streak in the league. And I didn’t even mention the quarterback controversy! Unfortunately, in week 11, the Bills face the one team with a longer winning streak, the 9-0 New England Patriots. It’s difficult to say how the Bills will respond as there is literally no history to look at. The Bills have never faced a 9-0 opponent.

However, they have played the New England Patriots plenty and lately it hasn’t been pretty. The Bills have lost 13 of the last 14 and 8 straight. Earlier this season the Patriots beat them 37-7 in Foxboro. In fact, the Patriots have just about walked all over every opponent they faced. Only the defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis colts put up a serious fight, but caved in the end. But this is the NFL and anything can happen. Its unlikely, but the Bills could win. They would need everything to go perfectly their way for it to happen, but it could happen. There’s a reason only one team has ever gone undefeated. Whenever a team is good enough to make a serious run for it, some usually underwhelming opponent upsets them. Often it’s the Dolphins themselves, defending the undefeated title despite having a miserable season. This week it’s the Bills who have a shot in front of a national audience.

It will be serious prime time football at Ralph Wilson Stadium and the crowd will be rocking, that’s for sure. This isn’t Monday night, everybody has the day off with nothing to do but tailgate all day. Its going to be a wild scene. Buffalo fans know how to show up for prime time and they demonstrated that earlier this year on Monday Night Football. Sunday night football seems to be getting bigger than Monday Night as ESPN has horribly mishandled the coverage and taken all of the life out of the coverage while NBC has brought in the best commentators and made it about football. The Sunday night games have been generally better match-ups as well which makes one wonder how the league feels about ESPN’s work with Monday night.

The Bills have elected to continue with J.P. Losman despite his unimpressive performance against the winless Dolphins last week. I think this was the right decision under the circumstances. Edwards is coming off an injury, has almost no experience as it is and really hasn’t been that spectacular when he was in. He definitely shows potential, but putting him in at this point sends a pretty strong message that the team is giving up on the playoffs. Edwards will not benefit from getting destroyed by blitzes for the rest of the season. He crumpled under pressure against the Jets. Aside from all that however, Dick Jauron made the right decision for one primary reason. His job is to keep the team focused and confident. The team is coming off a win where they did not play well. By leaving Losman in place, he is able to take advantage of the positive momentum of the win. If he benches Losman, he loses that. The players have been rallying behind Losman in a way that they didn’t when Edwards was in. More so in the Bengals game, but it showed in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins as well.

Losman has really taken an unjust amount of blame for the poor performance of the offense in Miami. The offensive mess was a team effort. Losman threw a perfect pass to the sideline on third down and Josh Reed catches it but steps out of bounds under no pressure. Michael Gaines drops a sure touchdown pass that was perfectly positioned. Marshawn Lynch loses 4 yards on 3rd and 1. And for all the criticism of Losman, did anyone notice that Buffalo’s receivers couldn’t get open against a pathetic group of Miami backups? It’s not Losman’s fault. Dick Jauron realizes that all he does by putting Edwards in right now is guarantee that Losman is out of Buffalo and probably Lee Evans with him. Edwards was less effective than Losman when he was in. He’s a rookie so that’s to be expected, but there really isn’t a strong argument to put him in when you look at the numbers.

NAME CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A TD INT SACK YDS RAT

J.P. Losman 69 109 820 63.3 7.52 2 3 9 73 80.8

Trent Edwards 80 121 790 66.1 6.53 1 5 9 71 69.9

Edwards has only had one game where he had a high percentage of completions (against the Jets the first time). For some reason everyone seems to think that that has continued, but it hasn’t. Losman has completed roughly the same percentage and gets an extra yard out of each completion on average. Losman has 2 TDs to Edwards’ 1 but both of these are embarrassingly low numbers. Edwards has thrown more interceptions.

So either the Bills have two lousy quarterbacks or something else is wrong with this offense. I happen to think that both Losman and Edwards are quality quarterbacks. Losman has more ability but is not as quick a study as Edwards. They actually compliment each other nicely. They also get along, which is a bonus these days. So where is the real problem with this offense? Its in the receiving.

I don’t think its necessarily that the Bills don’t have enough talent. Certainly it would be nice to have a more reliable 2nd receiver, but between Lee Evans, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish the Bills ought to be able to get more going than this. This is the point where I am going to point my finger at Tyke Tolbert, the Bills receivers’ coach for the last four seasons. Tyke must be a real swell guy to survive the coaching changes and the players apparently like him, but he clearly does not know how to get his players to play. Lee Evans has been slow to get involved in the offense in every season Tolbert has coached him. Light a fire under your star! Are you kidding? What kind of coach tolerates this? Robert Royal doesn’t get his foot in last season on an easy touchdown, now Josh Reed steps out of bounds on an easy out pattern? What exactly IS Tyke teaching his players? Certainly not how to get open against the worst defense in the NFL! The Bills don’t get the most out of their wide receivers and it seems pretty obvious to me why. How did this guy survive the coaching change? He sucked under Mularkey as well.

I’m also on the bandwagon with all the people who think that Steve Fairchild needs to go. He has made some of the least inventive game plans ever. His ability to make adjustments during the game are non-existent and at half time marginal at best. The whole team is being held back by this idiot. It has all been said before. I like Dick Jauron though, he is a defensive minded coach and shouldn’t be blamed for the offensive problems as much as Fairchild who was hired to mastermind the offense. Oops.

I think the Bills were caught looking in a big way down in Miami but were fortunate enough to pull off the victory. That was actually a big step for J.P. Losman pulling off a strong 4th quarter after a miserable start and actually taking the game from Miami. That win is carrying a lot more momentum for the players than it is for the fans. Nevertheless the Buffalo fans will be in full bloom Sunday night. All odds are against it happening but can’t you just smell upset? Here’s a few crazy reasons to billieve:

1.The Patriots are coming off a BYE but the Bills were clearly thinking about the Patriots last week, so both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

2.Dwayne Wright averaged 6 yards per carry on 6 carries in the first meeting with the Patriots. So even if Marshawn Lynch doesn’t play (it looks like he won’t) the Bills may still be effective on the ground. Hey Mel Kiper thinks that draft pick was as good as the Patriots drafting Brady in the 6th round. Mel’s full of crap, but still.

3. Tom Brady says he’s never played a night game in Buffalo before…

4. The 12th Man.

5. Come on the Bills are just due to upset the Patriots, its been so long. Why not now?

Sometimes the ball bounces your way. Bills 27 Patriots 13. Lots of weirdness and special teams plays make it happen for this tight Bills team.

send your comments to: bplewak@yahoo.com

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What Losman Needs To Do To Reclaim His Starter Status

As of now, J.P. Losman has been handed the reigns while rookie quarterback Trent Edwards recovers from a wrist injury. There is a lot of rumor fueling the quarterback situation in Buffalo. One of those rumors is that Ralph Wilson is the one who said Edwards is to be the starter. If that’s the case, it is entirely possible that Dick Jauron is actually in favor of Losman. A lot of people have been over-reacting to a few comments made by players saying that they don’t know who made the decision at quarterback, indicating somebody in the offices upstairs made the call. I hate to burst the bubble of the Jauron haters, but this is the way a perfectly managed football team is managed. It is ideal for the personnel decisions to be made behind closed doors in such a way that the coach can say, “My job is to coach you guys, their job is to make personnel decisions.” It doesn’t make the coach’s job easier if a player like Lee Evans is holding him responsible for benching his best friend.

The reality is that J.P. Losman threw for over 3000 yards last season and was ranked 11th in the NFL. To say he is completely unproven or incapable of scoring multiple touchdowns or managing the offense is not only a mis-statement, its naive. Losman has done all of these things in the past for the Buffalo Bills. In the two games he played in full this season he faced the best pass defenses in the league and struggled under an ultra-conservative game plan, meant to try to keep the defense (riddled with injuries) off the field. None of this worked out, but all the blame shouldn’t be put on Losman. In reality, Edwards has been even more ineffective at the end of the day. He looks good completing lots of short passes but ultimately hasn’t been scoring or executing plays that gain more than 9.9 yards.

So Losman is handed a start because of Edwards injury. I seriously doubt that Jauron will hold back Losman in an attempt to prove Edwards is his guy, this again is ridiculous. Any suggestion that any football team is hoping for a player to not be successful, or only playing for next year is just stupid. Every team plays to win, every week. Period. Any suggestion otherwise is just silly. Likewise, the suggestions made by the fans and media that the Bills WANT to move out of Buffalo is moronic. Its true that the Buffalo market isn’t the strongest, but if the team really wanted to move, they would just do it. There’s no reason whatsoever to go through any steps leading up to it. If the Buffalo Bills wanted to move to Toronto, they would just move. Toronto has expressed the interest etc. Reality once again shows that the Buffalo Bills make every effort to make the team more viable in its current market. Regardless of what fans may think, the Bills actually sell an awful lot more tickets than many teams in the league, however they have a very large stadium considering the population of the Buffalo area. (Indianapolis seats 30,000 less people than the Ralph) I mention all this because some have actually been foolish enough to suggest that the Bills are favoring Edwards for financial reasons. This is just idiotic at best. There is no way that is the case. Edwards came into favor because he looks more calm in the pocket. Looks can be deceiving however since the results of his play are not impressive.

But back to Losman, who may very well be starting for the next two weeks as Edwards hasn’t even been able to practice and may not even be active this week with an injury to his throwing wrist. Losman finally has the opportunity to play in a game with a functional offense against a defense that isn’t tops in the league. This is the type of game where Losman is likely to hook up with Lee Evans for several big plays. Since the Bills now have a functional offensive line, Bills fans will also be surprised when Losman hits his tight ends throughout the game. Losman has been criticized for not throwing to his tight ends enough. Realistically however, you can expect Losman to throw to a tight end who is not running a pattern. Losman hit Robert Royal regualrly late in the season in 2006 when the team was able to release a tight end into the pattern. Prior to that it almost never happened so it wasn’t like Losman was missing open tight ends, they just weren’t in the picture. Losman’s first pass last week when he came in late in the Jets game went to TE Derek Schouman for a decent gain.

One of the things Losman must do in the Bengals game is prove to his team and the fans that he can hit receivers for the short gain as well as he can throw the deep ball. Everyone knows that Losman can throw deep strikes to Lee Evans as well as, if not better than, anyone in the league. The big but has been in the short game. Losman often has games where he just doesn’t seem to have a good feel for the “touch” on the ball in the short game. Marshawn Lynch should make this less of a factor. The Bengals soft defense should make for a fun day for Marshawn Lynch. Losman should be in a lot fewer obvious passing downs.

To put numbers on it, in order to make a strong statement that he should be the starter, Losman needs to have a 300 yard plus performance, but that performance must not be built solely on 3-4 big completions from Lee Evans. 300 yards made up from several deep bombs will keep the controversy brewing. 300 yards spread around the field to running backs, tight ends and wide outs with the deep bomb mixed in once or twice will start to win him support. That alone won’t get him his starting job back.

Losman also needs to score. Not just field goals but touchdowns. Multiple touchdowns is something Edwards has not been able to produce. If Losman can score 3 touchdowns and add a few field goal drives, it will be hard to bench him. The Bills have not been able to score all season. I don’t think they necessarily have to even be passing touchdowns. If Lynch runs for two and Losman throws for one, I think Losman gets the job. There are other factors that would also make a strong statement.

The Bills so far this season have been horrible on third downs, converting around 25% regardless of which quarterback is in. If Losman can bring that up to about 50% or better it goes a long way. Edwards has been touted for his accuracy and high completion percentage, but actually is only 66% to Losman’s 64%. If Losman can complete a high percentage of his passes (70+%) it will also work very well in his favor. First downs have been hard coming as well so the more the better. Time of possession is always good, but not critical to Losman’s future. Losman is a quick strike type of passer.

The most important thing for Losman is that he avoid that “Happy Feet” look that he has been known to get in the pocket. It often results in a big loss sack when he shoudl just throw the ball away. Edwards has been praised for his poise (So Poised he was like a statue against the Jets and paid the price), there fore Losman needs to permanently ditch the “happy feet” look. For all the poise, Edwards hasn’t put up better numbers than Losman, so if Losman can look good while he plays it will help set a lot of minds at ease. Based on his interviews this week, he seems pretty calm.

Losman will be under tremendous pressure to play well both for his career (whether he remains in Buffalo or not his performance on Sunday will effect his salary next year) and for the team. If the Bills lose this one the odds drop significantly for the team making the playoffs. This team was 2 seconds away from being 5-2 so they feel they are underrated. That takes the pressure off, but it also means that if they want to contend they have to beat 2-5 teams. If they beat Cincinnati and Miami, lose to New England, they are 5-5 with six games remaining. Those six teams are Jacksonville, Washington, Miami, Cleveland, NY Giants and Philadelphia. At this point the Bills could easily beat Miami and Philadelphia but the other four games will be tough. Jacksonville and Washington are on the road, the Giants are hot, and Cleveland is playing better than Buffalo at this point in the season. The Bills would have to win two of those to have a shot at a Wild Card. If the Bills lose to the Bengals they would need 3. It becomes far fetched at that point but not impossible.

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There’s a Simple Solution to the Quarterback Problem

The Buffalo Bills once again find themselves in the middle of a quarterback controversy. This time around it is J.P. Losman, a veteran of Buffalo quarterback controversies, and rookie Trent Edwards, a… rookie. The coaching staff has been doing a lot of tap dancing as it seems obvious that they are itching to start their recent draft pick, yet owe Losman some respect after the way he finished last season. There doesn’t seem to be any question that the organization has decided to go to Edwards as their future star quarterback. But is he really better than Losman at this point? And is it in his best interest to learn as he goes on the field with an already unsettled and awkward offense? After all, this offense was built around Losman. Wasn’t it? Edwards was a pleasant surprise on draft day. A player the coaches couldn’t pass up on but they didn’t really expect to have a shot at him. How the Bills handle the current situation will say a lot about where the team is headed.

Trent Edwards has shown a lot of poise and composure in the pocket. For the most part he has managed a clean offense, but the team has struggled mightily at times under his leadership. Edwards has thrown 1 extremely bad interception in each of his appearances this season. All were at critical points in the game. Sure they are rookie mistakes, but why suffer through the rookie learning process if you have an experienced veteran on your squad?

Edwards has a questionable injury just like Losman did. It makes for a great excuse to make a non-committal move to start Losman again against a soft Cincinnati defense. Losman ought to have a lot of success. If he doesn’t and the Bills struggle, Jauron can easily start Edwards next week agaisnt the lowly Dolphins. But in the more likely event that Losman helps the team score more than one touchdown and Marshawn Lynch ends up with 100+ yards as a result, Losman should keep the starting job. Not only will Edwards benefit from watching the more experienced quarterback, but Losman will be raising his value. If the Bills decide to trade Losman, he will have a lot more value if he is coming off a successful campaign. There’s also a possibility that the Bills could hold onto both quarterbacks, particularly if Losman re-emerges as the starter.

The thing that makes this situation different from many quarterback controversies is the fact that Losman and Edwards have each other’s back. Both quarterbacks have said how they want eachother to be successful. They could co-exist. Edwards lacks the arm strength to challenge any NFL defenses. If he wants to be a starter he needs to show that he can get the ball down field. That’s when his interceptions have come. Edwards is better off working on that in the off season than struggling on the field and letting his team down. The top players on the offense, particularly Evans, feel that Losman gives them a better chance. But Edwards could be the Reich to Losman’s Kelly.

The Bottom line is, Losman has done a better job with the football this season despite how Edwards “appears” on the field. Despite facing far more menacing defenses than the ones Edwards faced, Losman is ahead of Edwards in almost every significant category.

Losman: 33 of 52 for 368 yards (63.5% completion) 1 touchdown, 1 interception, average completion 11.15, average per attempt 7.07 , passer rating 82.9

Edwards: 80 of 121 for 790 yards (66.1% completion) 1 touchdown, 5 interceptions, average completion 9.875, average per attempt 6.5, passer rating 69.9

The numbers speak for themselves. Despite having more opportunity to play and facing softer defenses, Edwards is producing, on average, half a yard less per passing play and nearly 1.5 yards per completion. 5 interceptions to 1 touchdown is a bad ratio. The Bills have an easy excuse to switch back to Losman and they are using it.

Losman gets to face the second worst defense in the league at home. The Bengals are ranked 28th at passing defense and 24th at rushing defense. Marshawn Lynch will finally get his 100 and Losman will throw for three touchdowns in a breakout game. The game will still be close because Cincinnati’s tough offense will bring the Bills young defense a dose of reality. In the end, the Bills find a way to beat the Bengals as they have often in the past. Bills 31 Bengals 27

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Bills’ Playoff Hopes Far From Over

It seems crazy to talk about the playoffs when your team is at 1-4 but fans of the Buffalo Bills should keep their hopes alive. While the odds are not in favor of such a turn around, it has happened before. Bills fans need only look at 2001 when the 1-4 New England Patriots made it all the way to the Super Bowl with a similar gaggle of unknown players. (Sure many of those players are now big names but they were far from it at the time, Tom Brady who is Tom Brady? Bledsoe was the starter) Perhaps you remember the Patriots daunting Tight End combination of Arther Love, Rod Rutledge and Jermaine Wiggins? Or was it their fearsome group of Wide Receivers in Troy Brown, Charles Johnson, Fred Coleman and David Patten? Or maybe it was their powerful group of runningbacks in Antowaine Smith, J.R. Redman and Kevin Faulk? The Patriots dinked and dunked their way to the Lombardi Trophy with screen passes and run after the catch. So much so that the following year Brady was criticized for not being able to throw the long ball (he proved those critics wrong!). After Bledsoe was knocked out with an injury, Brady played well enough to take the starting job. He wasn’t statistically amazing, but he just looked better under center. So much more confident that the Patriots left him in when Bledsoe came back from injury. Sound familiar?

Bills fans in their never ending quest to prove it can’t happen to them, will point out that Dick Jauron is no Bill Belichick and that the Patriots had a lot more defensive talent. Defensively, the Patriots had a lot of over the hill players and diamonds in the rough, but one could make the argument that they were in better shape than the Bills are this season. As for Belichick (in 2001) he was not the proven commander that he is today. Prior to that season Belichick’s record as a head coach was 41-55. Including only one winning season in Cleveland when the Browns went 11-5 (without that season he was 30-50). Browns fans drove him out of town claiming his winning season was a fluke and that his 5-11, 6-10, 7-9 and 7-9 seasons better described his ability to coach. He spent four seasons as an assistant to the Patriots and then the Jets before New England decided to give him a second chance as a head coach. He rewarded them with a 5-11 season in 2000 before breaking out in 2001 once Brady became the starter (coincidence, I think not). This coaching history sounds eerily familiar to the History of Jauron.

This is all merely coincidental and Jauron probably isn’t the coach that Belichick is, but fans shouldn’t be so quick to assume that he isn’t. Brady proved that a solid, accurate quarterback who maintains his composure can make his head coach look a genius. Trent Edwards may be a rookie but Bills fans have to admit that he has many of the traits that Brady had in his first season as a starter.

  1. Pocket Poise
  2. Accuracy
  3. Quick Release
  4. Great Short Passing Game

Edwards hasn’t shown an overwhelming ability to throw the deep ball but neither did Brady that first season. I’d bet money that this is why Lee Evans has been endorsing Losman. Evans knows that had Losman been throwing the ball in the New England match-up, Evans would have had an easy TD catch in the corner instead of the ball getting intercepted when it fell a little short of the target. But aside from the deep ball, Edwards has shown this far, that he has a greater ability in just about every other area of the quarterback position than Losman. Most importantly he has the ability to stay calm and collected under pressure. Losman just loses his composure to easily. Everyone thought the Patriots were crazy to let Bledsoe go after their first Super Bowl win, but no one is questioning the move now. Losman will find success to a modest degree somewhere in the NFL but unless Edwards gets injured against the Ravens or simply implodes to a degree that says “this guy isn’t ready”, Losman will be warming the bench for the rest of this season and will be traded afterwards. (Note: for those of you who think the Bills would be better off trading Losman now, you are totally wrong. Losman and Edwards are friends and resentment is low similar to the Bledsoe/Brady situation. Losman has said he will help Edwards be successful if Edwards gets the nod. This is not a Johnson/Flutie situation. Also, trying to unload Losman midseason sends a message that Losman has no value to the team which means the Bills will get very little for him. Losman’s contract runs through 2008 so the team can trade him in the off-season and not sacrifice their QB depth for the rest of 2007. The Bills are better off blaming the benching on a nagging knee injury and letting Edwards prove he is the starter in the mean time so that Losman didn’t lose the job as much as Edwards took it away. This preserves Losman’s trade value while dumping him now will land the Bills next to nothing. Losman was a first rounder, trading him now for a late round pick will go down as a colossal management blunder)

In 2006 the Bills came off the Bye week with a much improved offense. The Bills are praying for a similar result after the 2007 Bye. The offensive coaching has been pretty awful to date and fans are calling for the head of Fairchild (justifiably so). Had the Bills offense been able to score just 1 touchdown against Dallas, the Bills would have won and the killer finish wouldn’t have been a possibility. There were several plays that stand out as bad calls by the coaching staff but overall offensive execution was poor despite good pass protection and decent run blocking. The Bills need to find consistency on offense to help keep their defense off the field. At the end of the game the Bills were at a disadvantage because on those final critical drives, the defense had crossed that 50 play threshold where statistically the odds shift in favor of the offense. See the 4th quarter of the Dallas – New England game for more evidence of this. The Bills Offense put the defense and special teams in a position to lose. In a game where the defense forces 6 turnovers and scores two touchdowns and the special teams converts a fake punt, drops the ball inside the 5 and scores a 102 yard kickoff return TD, the problem is not the defense or special teams. The Offense scored 3 points and was unable to get a first down when that is all that was needed to kill the clock and win. They were unable to protect the ball when the game was in their hands and they gave up what should have been a dominant upset win.

Regardless of everything else, the Bills have bumbled their way through the worst of their 2007 schedule. So far the teams the Bills have faced have a combined record of 18-6. Three of their opponents are leading their divisions at this point. Every team but the Jets was undefeated when the Bills faced them (ok Denver was 0-0). Moving forward, the Bills have 11 games against teams with a combined record of 28-34. The Bills face 4 opponents with 1 win or less. Lets give the Bills a little credit in that they lost two of their games by 1 point and the other two to division leaders (the Pats have crushed every opponent as badly as they crushed the Bills and the Bills had their starting QB and MLB knocked out of that game). When the Bills played a weak team they easily handled them (Jets). Its not out of the question that the Bills can win two against the winless Dolphins another against the feeble Jets and 1 against the hapless Bengals (who the Bills seem to beat even when they are a dominant team). That puts the bills at 5-4. Barring a miracle, the Patriots will win again which puts the Bills at 5-5. That leaves 6 teams Cleveland, Philadelphia, NY Giants, Jacksonville, Washington and Baltimore. Is it totally out of the question that the Bills can win 4 out of 6 of these games? The Eagles are pretty awful as is Washington, Bills 7-5. Jacksonville is inconsistent but seems to always pull off a close win against the Bills, Bills 7-6. Cleveland is not a good team, but have been able to score a lot of points at times. The Bills have struggled to score so this looks like a loss unless the offense comes to life, Bills 7-7. NY Giants are good at times but don’t have much of a running attack and Eli Manning is prone to throwing interceptions. Considering the Bills are currently tied for 2nd in the league in interceptions with 9, this should work in the Bills favor, Bills 8-7. Which leaves this week’s match-up with the Ravens as a must win game.

The 12th man should be huge this week as there is not exactly a lot of love for Willis McGahee after the Bills ex-runningback openly trashed on the city of Buffalo after his departure last spring. McGahee even stooped so low as to complain about the quality of women and to suggest the team relocate to Toronto. While the Bills could benefit from some additional fan support from their Canadian neighbors, shipping the team over there is not the answer and certainly not a suggestion the people of Buffalo want to hear about. McGahee will be pumped up to prove to Buffalo that they shouldn’t have traded him. The problem for McGahee is that the Bills made the right move trading him and he will be hard pressed to prove otherwise. Like in past seasons with Buffalo, McGahee has started the season reasonably strong but has only found the end zone once and has one fumble. While he is currently ranked 4th, his team has not had a bye yet while many teams have so a better measure is his yards per game, which is 87.5, good enough for 9th. Marshawn Lynch is currently 14th for yards per game, but has 3 touchdowns and no fumbles. Lynch has also shown a “never-give-up” attitude on every play that McGahee has never shown. McGahee is happier in Baltimore where he fits in well with a team full of complacent and lazy thugs. Brian Billick actually said in a press conference that it will be difficult to keep his players focused this week in practice because they are looking forward to the Bye week. Talk about looking beyond an opponent. Most Ravens players and fans seem to think they already have a win against Buffalo. This is a dangerous attitude that will lead to an embarrassing defeat on Sunday. The Ravens are 4 and 2 but they have faced a lineup of terrible teams (Jets, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Browns and Bengals). In case you were wondering that’s a combined opponents’ record of 10-24. Oh yeah, and they were beaten by the Bengals and Browns. That’s right the Bengals ONLY win was against the Ravens. The Ravens are a mediocre team with their starting QB on the bench and they are having trouble focusing on the Bills. This will be a fun one for Bills fans. The Bills offense will look sharp after two weeks of work and the defense will play well bolstered by some players returning from injury. Special Teams will be typically excellent. Bills 31 Ravens 6.

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TONY ROMO IS MEDIOCRE

“Anonymous has left a new comment on your post ‘THE JOHN REVIEW WEEK 5’:

You are absolute idiot. Anyone can have a bad day and your comments prove that you know nothing about the game. Stop embarrassing the Bills with idiotic comments like this. Romo had a bad day and still beat us, and that is the proof of a damn good quarterback.”

-End Comment

Main Entry: me·di·o·cre
Pronunciation: “mE-dE-‘O-k&r
Function: adjective
Etymology: Middle French, from Latin mediocris, from medius middle + Old Latin ocris stony mountain; akin to Latin acer sharp: of moderate quality, value, ability, or performance

I usually don’t respond to comments made by children, but after looking at my post Monday night I made a mistake. I was traveling for work, it was late and I just figured it was obvious. I guess it wasn’t, so because it was my mistake, I’d be happy to hold your hand and explain it to you and anyone else incapable of seeing big pictures.

First we need to define what makes a good QB, for argument’s sake we’ll say it’s a mix of stats, consistency, leadership, and the intangibles (meaning mostly stuff that can’t be objectively measured like the ability to perform under pressure, etc.). Now let’s look at some QBs whom pretty much everybody agrees are good.

TOM BRADY: Tom Brady suffered in the stats last year mostly due to his lack of receivers. But even then he took his team to the AFC championship game. Tom Brady is possibly one of the best QBs in the history of the game and is a for sure hall of famer. Since he hasn’t had any bad days yet this season let’s look at what could be considered the worst day of last season.

December 10, 2006. The Dolphins shut out the Pats 21-0. Brady had only completed 12/25 for 78 yds and had no TDs. The other thing he had was 0 INTs. While he did very little to help his team win, he was not mostly responsible for losing it either (it was a team effort).

Romo’s bad day saw him throw FIVE INTs, TWO were returned for touchdowns, one by a guy who was a RECIEVER on the PRACTICE SQUAD at the beginning of the season, and he lost a fumble.

Maybe it was just a bad day, but when Payton Manning has a bad day he throws one INT, a really bad day he might throw two, never five, and if it is, it’s never against the 32 ranked injury depleted defense. Maybe Romo was looking ahead to next week, thinking this week was going to be easy? Again, only something done by a mediocre QB, not an elite. That’s poor ledership.

The only way you can say Romo coming back and beating us after being down makes him a “damn good” QB and not be a moron is if you only saw the fourth quarter. I know nothing about the game? Anybody who watched the game could plainly see Romo was single-handedly the reason the Bills were even in it.

Romo was the reason for the Bills defeat? Come on, I’ve seen chimps that speak sign language make more intelligent statements than that. How about the Bill’s offense only putting up three points? Any more and that would have been the game, and if you count the field goal unit as special teams the Bill’s offense put up 0 points.

There are certain expectations of a “damn good” QB going against the 32 ranked defense missing many of its starters and playing people on their offensive practice squad. The fact that Dallas had 385 total yards versus the Bills 229 total net yards, 0 points and one turnover is even worse for Romo because with those numbers the score should not have even been close.

So where is this myth that Tony Romo is anything other than mediocre coming from? Answer, people who look at the stats on NFL.com for five seconds and move on.

Romo is currently number two in passing yards with a rating of 93.9, some look at that and think that makes him a good QB. However, if you have any semblance of intelligence (i.e. you could win a chess match against a farm animal), you could see why his numbers are so inflated.

First let’s look at whom the Cowboys have played this year: the Giants (currently ranked 14), Dolphins (29), Bears (17), Rams (dead last), and Bills (28). The Cowboy’s are 21 in strength of schedule (fun fact: the Bills are tied for first with the Raiders for the toughest schedule). The two teams they have played ranking higher than the Bills are the Giants and Bears. Both teams are struggling defensively and are members of the NFC, a significantly weaker conference. Why are those two rated even as high as they are? The Giants are 22 in strength of schedule (one easier than the Cowboys) and the Bears have the second easiest schedule in the NFL.

Romo has put up monster numbers against some of the weakest defenses in the NFL, the fact that he has a decent team around him has also helped mask his mediocrity, but what happens when the pressure is on?

Granted he’s young and has not been put in a ton of high-pressure situation yet, but when he has had the opportunity to shine, he blows it more than an elite QB should.

The Bills have exposed him and the Patriots will destroy him, as they do with most mediocre QBs. Expect the Cowboys to run a lot this week.

To be fair, I’m not saying Tony Romo sucks, he doesn’t, but to put him in the same conversation as Tom Brady and Payton Manning is just plain ignorant. Yeah I actually did watch the game and am blown away that anyone who watched it could think anything else.

-The John

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Frustration

Every Bills fan on the planet went to bed last night rehearsing the “what if’s…” of last nights pathetic loss to the Dallas Cowboys. As we tossed and turned, we thought what if we actually played a tight man to man with 7 seconds left in the game taking away the quick sideline pass instead of playing a soft prevent defense… What if Terrence McGee could actually catch a football… What if our offense could actually score points… There are so many “what if’s…”

Honestly, I am sick of watching a Bills game and walking away thinking what if… what if… The Cowboys had their share of “what if’s…” lots of turnovers, dropped passes by TO but somehow they made it count when it mattered.

I ask myself why is this Bill’s team unable to finish a game? All last year we watched them give games away and now this year against Denver and Dallas we lose to teams who just execute better down the stretch. What is going on?

We can offer excuses all day long. There are lots of injuries on this team. It seems the starting Free Safety position is cursed. Even with all our injuries our defense is making plays. We are forcing turnovers. We owned Romo for 58 minutes. Excuses will never produce a winning atmosphere, so lets not even go any further. We have great players who play hard.

What we do not have in Buffalo is a coaching staff that knows how to win. This is the NFL everyone has talent (yes some more than others, but everyone has talent). The difference in the Dallas game last night I think is coaching. While Dick Jauron is a nice guy he is not a winner. I am sure he wants to win. He just is not very good at it.

The last thing I want is another coaching change, but unfortunately that is exactly what is needed. I would love to see the Bills bring in a winner like Marty Schottenheimer. He may not have a great playoff record, but at least his teams get there. We need someone to bring an attitude of winning. I do not see that attitude from our coaching staff.

While a change may be needed I don’t think it will happen. Let me tell you why the Bills will not change coaches this year. First, Dick gets a pass because of all the injuries. I think management is to nice and Dick is so cheap they will give him another year. Second, bringing in a big name coach will cost lots of money. The President does not want to spend money on a big name coach. Finally, I think Marv does not want to upset the fruit basket. He wants to bring some consistency to this team, and Dick is his man.

The rest of the year will probably be filled with lots more Denver and Dallas moments. What if… What if…

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THE JOHN REVIEW WEEK 5

This week proves Dave Drake knows more about the Dallas Cowboys than most Dallas fans. The following is no longer open to debate:

Tony Romo is mediocre at best.

Q.E.D

-The John

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Why The Cowboys May Not Win on Monday Night

At first glance it seems unlikely if not impossible for the 1-3 Bills to upset the 4-0 Cowboys on Monday night. The Buffalo Bills have had a string of bad luck on the injury front and are decimated on defense. They are also starting a rookie quarterback. The Cowboys on the other hand have teh number one offense in the league and are racking up nearly 38 points per game. Their defense seems stout as well. Dallas ranks 7th against the run, and Buffalo’s success depends on Marshawn Lynch running the ball.

But if we look a little deeper into the numbers we start to see that things may not be as bright as they seem in Dallas. Tony Romo is definitely playing well and there’s no arguing that point. However, you may have noticed that many of the highlight reels involve Romo eluding several would be tacklers, often on horribly broken plays. Romo is standing out because his line is doing a poor job blocking and Romo is being forced to rescue plays. He’s been successful but things are bound to not go his way at some point if this continues. This would be less of a concern for the cowboys if not for the fact that Romo has been harassed by some very mediocre if not awful football teams. The Cowboys’ opponents to date have a combined record of 3-13 and have been outscored 417 to 265. While during the off-season teams like Chicago, NY Giants, Miami and St. Louis may have seemed like strong contenders, it is pretty clear now that all of them are not. Neither Miami or St Louis has won a game yet. Chicago has only won 1. The Giants are split 2-2 but have looked pretty bad, especially early in the season when they faced the Cowboys.

On the other hand, the Bills have had to face some of the best teams in the league. Their opponents have a combined record of 10-6. Three of those losses belong to the Jets. (I think Mangini proved he is not the football coach he has been made out to be when his team could only put up 60 yards on the ground against a team that had been allowing nearly 150 per game.) The Bills first three opponents were against top defenses in games where the Bills lost many starters to injuries. Despite all that the Bills were seconds away from beating the Broncos. They got handled by the Patriots but so has everyone else. Despite playing a rotating cast of backups on defense, the Bills have only allowed 93 points and were surprisingly solid against the Jets.

The Cowboys’ passing attack is solid and the Bills secondary is extremely thin. The Bills’ secondary will struggle against the pass unless they can get consistent pass rush. The return of Anthony Hargrove will help quite a bit in this area. Not only will this give Kelsay and Schobel more opportunities to catch their breath, but Hargrove had a strong preseason and has a lot to prove to his teammates coming off the suspension. If the Bills can force Romo to scramble and get some sacks, it will take some of the burden off the depleted secondary. Jabari Greer played a great game last week and was recognized for it. Some people are giving him a hard time for the catches Randy Moss made in the Patriots game, but his coverage was solid on those plays. Moss is just good enough to make the catch anyway.

Speaking of Randy Moss, the reason he is a Pro Bowl receiver is his ability to bring the ball down even when it looks like the defense has him covered and/or beat. Lee Evans has shown the ability to do this in the past but has not shown much at all this season. The Bills’ quarterbacks (especially Losman) have been criticized for not throwing the ball to Lee Evans enough. The criticism is misdirected though because Evans has not made the plays when the ball was thrown his way in the first three weeks. Even against the Jets in week 4, Evans was good at times but failed to help his quarterback at others. The end zone interception should have never happened. Evans, had he been playing the way he is supposed to and can, should have broken the play up at a minimum and made the reception if possible. He wasn’t even paying attention. He made no effort to even try to catch the ball and just watched it get intercepted. If Lee plays with heart (which he has started to) and gives a 100% effort, the Bills offense can be difficult to stop.

Marshawn Lynch has been running well and will get 100 yards if the passing game can gain yards more consistently. The offensive line has looked a little better each week and is starting to give the quarterback time and provide holes for Lynch to run through. Based on performance so far, I’d like to see less Anthony Thomas and more Dwayne Wright spelling for Lynch. Lynch needs to be involved in the passing game as well, so they need to leave him in on third downs. Dallas has a high ranked rushing defense at 8 but the ranking is deceptive because the team has played with large leads so much that opponents have mostly been forced to pass to play catch up. Dallas also hasn’t really faced any significant running back threats. Ronnie Brown in Miami was probably the most skilled but he is on a miserable team.

The Bills took another blow this week when Peerless Price was put on IR. This may actually help the Bills because he has not been as productive as Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish. Peerless Price’s departure will force the coaching staff to keep Reed and Parrish on the field. I think this will actually result in more success for the team. Dallas has a mediocre pass defense as it is and has injuries on top of that. The Bills need to pick on the injured secondary by spreading the ball around to all three top receivers and the Tightends and backs as well.

Trent Edwards has come in for Losman and looked like a natural in the NFL game. He just looks comfortable in there in a way that Losman rarely does. Even when he was getting mugged by the Patriots, he seemed to keep his head and try to make a realistic play. He’s made a few rookie read mistakes and underthrew a few receivers, but he still has been more consistent than Losman. I am not against Losman coming back after the BYE because he brings a level of athleticism that Edwards lacks, but if Edwards plays really well and beats the Cowboys, I think the coaches will have to make the switch. This is Monday Night Football at Ralph Wilson Stadium for the first time in 13 years against an undefeated team. There is no greater regular season pressure. If Edwards handles it in stride, the starting job will be his. We have seen what Losman can do in 26 games, if Edwards can play in primetime and win, it will be hard to go back to Losman’s long growth period.

Its hard to criticize the coaching staff to severely on the Bills considering the number of injuries. If anything, Perry Fewell is doing a pretty amazing job of holding his squad together. The offensive coaching has to be questioned until they can find success on a regular basis. If the Offense comes alive under Edwards and the team improves, they can blame it on Losman. For the Cowboys, Wade Phillips is no stranger to Buffalo. He is getting a lot of props for his hot start with the well loaded teams he inherited from Bill Parcels. Wade makes really bad decisions at clutch times and thats why he has lost his job more than once.

I think the Cowboys are over-rated and have been fortunate to play a soft schedule. The Bills are a big wild card and have to be seen as an easy match-up based on their current standings. The Cowboys will certainly have to stay focused considering New England is next week. There are a bunch of weird voo-doo statistics in the Bills favor like: Last time the Bills hosted MNF they faced Wade Phillips as the coach of the Broncos and beat him. Dallas has not started a season 5-0 since 1984 (not once with Troy Aikman). The Bills also have a really impressive record against undefeated teams with 4 wins or more 9-2. Hard to believe. Its hard to string together 5 wins no matter how good a team you are. The Patriots almost slipped today against the Browns but fought through it. Dallas is not nearly as good on defense as the Patriots.

Dallas gets caught looking to next week, Bills 28 Dallas 17

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DITCH THIS GARBAGE

Alright Bills fans I’m going to come right out and say it, we’re going to lose big this week and every week until we get rid of Steve Fairchild. I, like so many other Bills fans, have been holding out hope that somehow, perhaps magically, the coaching staff knew something I didn’t (after all, not only do I not work with the team on a daily basis, I don’t even live in the area).

Get this; an article published today by the Buffalo News describes how everybody is riding high on new (and most likely permanent) starting QB Trent Edwards. Even the late Bill Walsh praised the kid’s abilities. Robert Royal commented on how surprised he was to see Edwards demonstrate the high level of leadership that he did in practice this week. It would seem like this could be the spark the (nothing short of lame) offense needs to pull it’s not-really-affected-by-injuries self out of last place.

There’s only one key person who’s wary of Edwards. Steve Farichild. To quote Allen Wilson’s article:

“The play calling was limited when Edwards replaced Losman last week, but offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild said that had nothing to do with the game’s outcome.

Edwards should benefit from a full week of practice as the starter, but Fairchild admitted the game plan will be scaled back a little.

‘Trent hasn’t had the work or the experience that J.P. had at this point,’ Fairchild said. ‘He’s a fairly new guy, so it will affect us.’”

I had to read that twice. Can someone explain that to me? What exactly are they scaling back? Does Fairchild think the offense isn’t conservative enough? Question: what can we derive from a plan to scale back a playbook your below average pee wee QB could understand after two weeks of practice?

Answer: He’s covering himself for another lame offensive performance.

Let’s face it, the coaching staff either does not believe in our players, or is actually incapable of coming up with anything better.

It’s clear to the coaches that Edwards is not capable of throwing the ball too late, taking a bad sack, or putting the ball in the wrong spot as often as J.P. a master at all of those things. We wouldn’t want to overwhelm him with all those advanced QB techniques on his first day.

Would giving Edwards the full (or at least close to full) playbook really be that bad for him? What does the team possibly have to lose? What if we actually let Edwards call a few plays, what’s the worst that could happen, we go thee and out? Nobody would even notice. I also don’t see the profit in publicly saying we’re bringing the offense down unless this is all a ploy to get the Jet’s to ease up and surprise them. If that’s the case, great, I guess.

One of the dumbest things I keep hearing this week is, “Well Edwards did just as bad as Losman would have so that should quiet the cries for Edwards.”

Huh? If that does anything it should strengthen the cries for Edwards that much more. If his first NFL game against the best team in the NFL is as good as Losman’s play against a lesser team after four years experience, how does that say anything other than Losman’s not the guy? Edwards might not be the guy either, but if he’s as good/bad as Losman in 1/4 the time, imagine how good he could be after 4 years?

Denying we’re rebuilding this year is like denying the holocaust, let the rookie play. If he sucks, so what? It can only get better because it’s not possible to be any worse.

If nothing else it will be entertaining to see how one could scale back the last place, most predicable offense in the NFL. Something drastic needs to happen or it’s not going to change any time soon.

Marv, do the right thing and ditch this garbage.

-The John