Year: 2007

At first glance it seems unlikely if not impossible for the 1-3 Bills to upset the 4-0 Cowboys on Monday night. The Buffalo Bills have had a string of bad luck on the injury front and are decimated on defense. They are also starting a rookie quarterback. The Cowboys on the other hand have teh number one offense in the league and are racking up nearly 38 points per game. Their defense seems stout as well. Dallas ranks 7th against the run, and Buffalo’s success depends on Marshawn Lynch running the ball.

But if we look a little deeper into the numbers we start to see that things may not be as bright as they seem in Dallas. Tony Romo is definitely playing well and there’s no arguing that point. However, you may have noticed that many of the highlight reels involve Romo eluding several would be tacklers, often on horribly broken plays. Romo is standing out because his line is doing a poor job blocking and Romo is being forced to rescue plays. He’s been successful but things are bound to not go his way at some point if this continues. This would be less of a concern for the cowboys if not for the fact that Romo has been harassed by some very mediocre if not awful football teams. The Cowboys’ opponents to date have a combined record of 3-13 and have been outscored 417 to 265. While during the off-season teams like Chicago, NY Giants, Miami and St. Louis may have seemed like strong contenders, it is pretty clear now that all of them are not. Neither Miami or St Louis has won a game yet. Chicago has only won 1. The Giants are split 2-2 but have looked pretty bad, especially early in the season when they faced the Cowboys.

On the other hand, the Bills have had to face some of the best teams in the league. Their opponents have a combined record of 10-6. Three of those losses belong to the Jets. (I think Mangini proved he is not the football coach he has been made out to be when his team could only put up 60 yards on the ground against a team that had been allowing nearly 150 per game.) The Bills first three opponents were against top defenses in games where the Bills lost many starters to injuries. Despite all that the Bills were seconds away from beating the Broncos. They got handled by the Patriots but so has everyone else. Despite playing a rotating cast of backups on defense, the Bills have only allowed 93 points and were surprisingly solid against the Jets.

The Cowboys’ passing attack is solid and the Bills secondary is extremely thin. The Bills’ secondary will struggle against the pass unless they can get consistent pass rush. The return of Anthony Hargrove will help quite a bit in this area. Not only will this give Kelsay and Schobel more opportunities to catch their breath, but Hargrove had a strong preseason and has a lot to prove to his teammates coming off the suspension. If the Bills can force Romo to scramble and get some sacks, it will take some of the burden off the depleted secondary. Jabari Greer played a great game last week and was recognized for it. Some people are giving him a hard time for the catches Randy Moss made in the Patriots game, but his coverage was solid on those plays. Moss is just good enough to make the catch anyway.

Speaking of Randy Moss, the reason he is a Pro Bowl receiver is his ability to bring the ball down even when it looks like the defense has him covered and/or beat. Lee Evans has shown the ability to do this in the past but has not shown much at all this season. The Bills’ quarterbacks (especially Losman) have been criticized for not throwing the ball to Lee Evans enough. The criticism is misdirected though because Evans has not made the plays when the ball was thrown his way in the first three weeks. Even against the Jets in week 4, Evans was good at times but failed to help his quarterback at others. The end zone interception should have never happened. Evans, had he been playing the way he is supposed to and can, should have broken the play up at a minimum and made the reception if possible. He wasn’t even paying attention. He made no effort to even try to catch the ball and just watched it get intercepted. If Lee plays with heart (which he has started to) and gives a 100% effort, the Bills offense can be difficult to stop.

Marshawn Lynch has been running well and will get 100 yards if the passing game can gain yards more consistently. The offensive line has looked a little better each week and is starting to give the quarterback time and provide holes for Lynch to run through. Based on performance so far, I’d like to see less Anthony Thomas and more Dwayne Wright spelling for Lynch. Lynch needs to be involved in the passing game as well, so they need to leave him in on third downs. Dallas has a high ranked rushing defense at 8 but the ranking is deceptive because the team has played with large leads so much that opponents have mostly been forced to pass to play catch up. Dallas also hasn’t really faced any significant running back threats. Ronnie Brown in Miami was probably the most skilled but he is on a miserable team.

The Bills took another blow this week when Peerless Price was put on IR. This may actually help the Bills because he has not been as productive as Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish. Peerless Price’s departure will force the coaching staff to keep Reed and Parrish on the field. I think this will actually result in more success for the team. Dallas has a mediocre pass defense as it is and has injuries on top of that. The Bills need to pick on the injured secondary by spreading the ball around to all three top receivers and the Tightends and backs as well.

Trent Edwards has come in for Losman and looked like a natural in the NFL game. He just looks comfortable in there in a way that Losman rarely does. Even when he was getting mugged by the Patriots, he seemed to keep his head and try to make a realistic play. He’s made a few rookie read mistakes and underthrew a few receivers, but he still has been more consistent than Losman. I am not against Losman coming back after the BYE because he brings a level of athleticism that Edwards lacks, but if Edwards plays really well and beats the Cowboys, I think the coaches will have to make the switch. This is Monday Night Football at Ralph Wilson Stadium for the first time in 13 years against an undefeated team. There is no greater regular season pressure. If Edwards handles it in stride, the starting job will be his. We have seen what Losman can do in 26 games, if Edwards can play in primetime and win, it will be hard to go back to Losman’s long growth period.

Its hard to criticize the coaching staff to severely on the Bills considering the number of injuries. If anything, Perry Fewell is doing a pretty amazing job of holding his squad together. The offensive coaching has to be questioned until they can find success on a regular basis. If the Offense comes alive under Edwards and the team improves, they can blame it on Losman. For the Cowboys, Wade Phillips is no stranger to Buffalo. He is getting a lot of props for his hot start with the well loaded teams he inherited from Bill Parcels. Wade makes really bad decisions at clutch times and thats why he has lost his job more than once.

I think the Cowboys are over-rated and have been fortunate to play a soft schedule. The Bills are a big wild card and have to be seen as an easy match-up based on their current standings. The Cowboys will certainly have to stay focused considering New England is next week. There are a bunch of weird voo-doo statistics in the Bills favor like: Last time the Bills hosted MNF they faced Wade Phillips as the coach of the Broncos and beat him. Dallas has not started a season 5-0 since 1984 (not once with Troy Aikman). The Bills also have a really impressive record against undefeated teams with 4 wins or more 9-2. Hard to believe. Its hard to string together 5 wins no matter how good a team you are. The Patriots almost slipped today against the Browns but fought through it. Dallas is not nearly as good on defense as the Patriots.

Dallas gets caught looking to next week, Bills 28 Dallas 17

Alright Bills fans I’m going to come right out and say it, we’re going to lose big this week and every week until we get rid of Steve Fairchild. I, like so many other Bills fans, have been holding out hope that somehow, perhaps magically, the coaching staff knew something I didn’t (after all, not only do I not work with the team on a daily basis, I don’t even live in the area).

Get this; an article published today by the Buffalo News describes how everybody is riding high on new (and most likely permanent) starting QB Trent Edwards. Even the late Bill Walsh praised the kid’s abilities. Robert Royal commented on how surprised he was to see Edwards demonstrate the high level of leadership that he did in practice this week. It would seem like this could be the spark the (nothing short of lame) offense needs to pull it’s not-really-affected-by-injuries self out of last place.

There’s only one key person who’s wary of Edwards. Steve Farichild. To quote Allen Wilson’s article:

“The play calling was limited when Edwards replaced Losman last week, but offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild said that had nothing to do with the game’s outcome.

Edwards should benefit from a full week of practice as the starter, but Fairchild admitted the game plan will be scaled back a little.

‘Trent hasn’t had the work or the experience that J.P. had at this point,’ Fairchild said. ‘He’s a fairly new guy, so it will affect us.’”

I had to read that twice. Can someone explain that to me? What exactly are they scaling back? Does Fairchild think the offense isn’t conservative enough? Question: what can we derive from a plan to scale back a playbook your below average pee wee QB could understand after two weeks of practice?

Answer: He’s covering himself for another lame offensive performance.

Let’s face it, the coaching staff either does not believe in our players, or is actually incapable of coming up with anything better.

It’s clear to the coaches that Edwards is not capable of throwing the ball too late, taking a bad sack, or putting the ball in the wrong spot as often as J.P. a master at all of those things. We wouldn’t want to overwhelm him with all those advanced QB techniques on his first day.

Would giving Edwards the full (or at least close to full) playbook really be that bad for him? What does the team possibly have to lose? What if we actually let Edwards call a few plays, what’s the worst that could happen, we go thee and out? Nobody would even notice. I also don’t see the profit in publicly saying we’re bringing the offense down unless this is all a ploy to get the Jet’s to ease up and surprise them. If that’s the case, great, I guess.

One of the dumbest things I keep hearing this week is, “Well Edwards did just as bad as Losman would have so that should quiet the cries for Edwards.”

Huh? If that does anything it should strengthen the cries for Edwards that much more. If his first NFL game against the best team in the NFL is as good as Losman’s play against a lesser team after four years experience, how does that say anything other than Losman’s not the guy? Edwards might not be the guy either, but if he’s as good/bad as Losman in 1/4 the time, imagine how good he could be after 4 years?

Denying we’re rebuilding this year is like denying the holocaust, let the rookie play. If he sucks, so what? It can only get better because it’s not possible to be any worse.

If nothing else it will be entertaining to see how one could scale back the last place, most predicable offense in the NFL. Something drastic needs to happen or it’s not going to change any time soon.

Marv, do the right thing and ditch this garbage.

-The John

1. If the outcome of this game was a surprise to you, wake up…
2. Lynch continues to impress on an unimpressive offense.
3. Steve Fairchild has to go! The sooner the better.
4. This game was over the moment Poz went down. We are in real trouble with all the injuries on defense.
5. Expect to start hearing disgruntled talk from Lee Evans. Rightly so, Steve Fairchild is not trying to get Lee involved in the offensive play calling is horrible.
6. Rich Gannon was right our offense needs a lot of work and it starts with the coaches.
7. For a moment we all thought we can win this game (when it was 7-3). Then Poz goes down and Brady shows why he is a Super Bowl MVP.
8. The Pats may be cheaters, but they still are the best team in the NFL and we are one of the worst.
9. I thought we might be able to beat the Jets, but with all the injuries it is not possible. I think if we were healthy on defense a lot could be and would be different so far this year.

Its been a rough start to the 2007 season for the Buffalo Bills. So bad, in fact, that Bills fans are already starting to call for the head of their quarterback on a platter. Indeed J.P. Losman’s 251 yards passing sounds like the stat for one game rather than a combined two game total. However, things are not quite as bad as they seem. Bills fans need to keep things in perspective before they panic and call for a quarterback change.

Fans are desperate for a winning season and rightly so. It’s been a long time since the Bills sniffed the post season flowers. The Bills have not made it to the post season in this millennium. A change at quarterback to the rookie Trent Edwards would surely set the club back at least another two seasons. Is this really what fans want? The Bills’ greatest chance of seeing the post season in the near future is to stick with J.P. Losman. A deeper look at the stats shows that this might not be such a bad idea.

All too often too much weight is put on yardage in the NFL. The weekly rankings of offense and defense are based purely on yardage and take absolutely nothing else into account. A glaring example of this would be week 1 for the Bills. The Bills defense allowed the Broncos to accumulate 470 yards of total offense. Thats a large number and certainly not a sign of good things, but they only allowed 15 points. By yardage the Bills were 31st in the league. By Points Allowed they were ranked 15th. Say what you want about it, but ultimately points are what matters. Even after getting dominated by the Steelers in week 2, the Bills defense is still 21st in the league for points allowed despite their 31st ranking for yards allowed. Bend but don’t break at work. The Bills defense has allowed touchdowns in 3 out of 8 redzone situations. Thats only 37% of the time, a very commendable stat. Particularly considering that two of those touchdowns came late in the Pittsburgh game when the Bills Defense had been on the field for 40 minutes. Had the offense gotten a few first downs and gotten closer to sharing time of possession equally with their opponent, these scores would have never happened. In other words, despite the laundry list of injuries, the Bills defense is playing well enough to keep the team in games. There’s a lot they could do to play better, but considering the youth on the field, the defense has played pretty well.

Which brings us back to the offense. The offense has been largely unproductive in the first two games. That much is certain, but all hope is not lost. The Bills have been rock solid on first downs, averaging 6 yards per rushing attempt on first down, it would seem that they ought to be in good shape to be moving the ball down the field. The team hasn’t been able to string together three consecutive positive plays though. Fans are blaming Losman, and he has not looked sharp at times for sure. In reality though, despite claims from observers, Losman has completed 63% of his passes. Good enough for 16th in the league, better than e. Manning, Young, Garrard, Boller, Green, McNair, Roethlisberger, Leinart, Grossman, Campbell, Bulger, Romo, McNabb, Smith, Anderson, Jackson and Clemens. So the critics who claim Losman has been inaccurate are really full of it. The problem is that Losman’s completions are for an average of 5.46 yards per attempt. He may have missed some reads that could have gotten him more yards at times (most quarterbacks do) but ultimately, the defense has taken away anything over 5 yards. Buffalo’s receivers have been forced to take short out patterns and small gains in the middle and fight for yards. This was particularly a problem in Pittsburgh, when Josh Reed was out with an injury. Reed is the teams’ best slot receiver both because of his smart play and ability to break tackles after the catch. In his absense, Roscoe Parrish got more balls thrown his way, and led the team in receptions for the game, but Roscoe is small and several times was tackled for a short gain because he was unable to break the initial tackle.

Losman was heavily criticized by the media for calling for a more open offense. The Media spun his comments into a direct criticism of the coaching staff. I don’t think that was Losman’s intention, but if it was, can you blame him? The Offensive play calling has been pathetic at best. I don’t think the Bills have tried a reverse yet, audibled even once or done anything that is even remotely difficult to cover. Beyond Lee Evans, the Bills don’t have a really dangerous second receiver, but several solid 3rd receivers. Bill Belichick often points out that its awfully hard to cover all four of Buffalo’s receivers when the team goes 4 wide. Yet the Bills have mostly used 2 receiver sets, giving Losman minimal options even when the revamped line has given him time to throw. This doesn’t put Losman in a position to succeed and makes it much easier for the opposing team to run blitz packages. It seems that Steve Fairchild has been so afraid of his opponents pass rush that he has left extra guys back to block, making it easier to cover the receivers and inviting the opposing team to do just what he is trying to stop them from doing, Blitz.

Fairchild needs to put more faith in his 100 million dollar offensive line and get more targets out running patterns for Losman. Perhaps it is because the line was so bad last year that he is hesitant to do so. The result is making it awfully hard for the Bills offense to perform. Losman wants Fairchild to open things up a bit and take the leash off his quarterback. Critics have argued that if Losman can’t make the simple stuff work, what says he can handle himself in a more open offense. Hmm, lets see, maybe, last season? The first half of the season in 2006 Fairchild kept the leash on his offense and they struggled and mostly embarassed themselves. Then, after the bye week, he took the leash off and let Losman play football. Surprise surprise, the team suddenly had a powerful offense. The argument that Losman (or any quarterback) should be able to perform well in the NFL using only a rudimentary basic playbook is ridiculous. NFL defenses are way too good for any team to get away with calling bland and predictable plays. We will be waiting all season for success if this doesn’t change.

Bills fans should also take into consideration that the Bills have started the season by facing the top defenses in the league. The top three defenses in the league going into week three are New England, Denver and Pittsburgh. And no, its not just because Denver and Pittsburgh played Buffalo that their stats are so good, they did the same thing to the other teams that they have played. This week the Bills face the Patriots who have shut down the Jets (who are worse than the Bills) and the Chargers who are very talented but suffered a huge drop off in coaching talent since last year (what were they thinking?). The Patriots are still one of the best, if not the best, team in the league. The Bills have a huge challenge ahead of them on Sunday.

On the positive side, Paul Posluszny is third in the league in tackles (it helps that he has had to play 40 minutes per game, more time on the field means more tackles). Marshawn Lynch has looked like a superstar. He hasn’t had a 100 yard game yet but he was running against Denver (90 yards, was close) and Pittsburgh (65 yards but the Steelers haven’t allowed a 100 yarder in 20+ games). If Fairchild can mix things up a bit better with the passing game to make things a bit less predictable, Lynch will have more of an impact.

The Bills haven’t beat the Patriots in years and it looks unlikely that it will happen this week. However, this team is playing with a lot of heart and will make this a much closer game than the 16 point spread implies. (I think that’s the largest spread I’ve ever seen in the NFL!) Aaron Schobel loves sacking Brady and has done so 10.5 times, more than any other player in the league. The Bills as a team have sacked Brady more than any team (30 times). Its a divisional matchup and anything can happen. There’s always the possibility that Brady gets hit hard and loses some touch in the game as a result or that Randy Moss gets ejected for soem crazy infraction. Anything could happen. But in all likelihood, the Bills will give up a heartbreaking loss to the much better Patriots. If the Bills can at least put up a fight, it will go a long way to helping their season. Patriots 28 Bills 24.

Its brutal to have to start the season facing the three best defenses in the league, but hope is on the horizon. Next week the Bills play the Jets, ranked 24th, then Dallas ranked 26th, then Baltimore ranked 4th (doh!), then the Jets again, then Cincinnati ranked 30th, Miami ranked 25th, The Pats again, Jacksonvilel ranked 12th, Washington ranked 16th, Miami again, Cleveland ranked 32nd, The Giants ranked 29th and the Eagles ranked 6th.

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